TPC Southwind is an extremely straightforward Par 70 property that will accentuate ball-striking. We've seen that come to fruition nine times over the past 12 years as the winner of those nine tournaments led the field in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green.
Narrow Zoysia fairways help to enhance that metric since thick Bermuda rough creates a secondary penalty beyond just the 11 holes that feature water.
That Zoysia conversation is one of the most notable pieces on this course. You get this stark contrast of balls in the fairway that will sit up for second shots versus thick Bermuda rough that can be sticky to hit out of with your irons, especially with all the water that enters the mix.
Keep that in mind as an additional reason my model liked Viktor Hovland this week (Valhalla – Zoysia).
Certain players, such as Justin Thomas, have also seen significant improvements when faced with comp setups. That's worth diving into a little deeper if you want to extrapolate out a model.
However, the takeaway I want everyone to gain from this is that when you get this tee-to-green answer from within the data, it always starts pushing the narrative into, 1) a reduction of putting and 2) an overall enhancement of finding fairways and striking your approach shots well from within the critical distances.
The range that you're looking for this week is going to land between 125-200 yards. Nearly 67% of second shots occur from that distance, a total that's almost 12% higher than what golfers face weekly.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Data-Driven DFS Picks
St. Jude Championship Plays
All of my plays will carry under 10% ownership. I would prefer pinpointing some ultra-contrarian targets and found a few golfers I didn't talk about heavily this week in the outright market when I recorded the Links + Locks St. Jude Championship Betting Preview.
Brian Harman ($7,600)
I'm not going to spend as much time on the golfers I'm backing as the names I'm fading — since there are always more routes to discuss for a golfer you're looking to oppose — but this is a prototypical smash spot for an option like Brian Harman.
You don't have to look further than his head-to-head matchups to understand that DraftKings underpriced him.
Here's a list of who he's taking on this week when you shop around:
- Tom Kim $8,900 (-138) versus Brian Harman $7,600 (+115)
- Brian Harman $7,600 (-131) versus Jason Day $7,500 (+108)
- Brian Harman $7,600 (-130) versus Akshay Bhatia $7,300 (+100)
- Brian Harman $7,600 (-114) versus Davis Thompson $7,400 (-114) — Thompson is also underpriced
- Brian Harman $7,600 (-110) versus Justin Thomas $8,400 (-110)
Harman is probably correctly priced right in that $8,400 range next to Thomas. (I would have him higher because of his top-15 output within my sheet for all three iterations of how I ran it, but I will be buying low on his perceived recent form.)
Let's not forget that we're one week removed from Harman being one of the most popular plays on the board.
Viktor Hovland ($9,500)
Hovland has become the forgotten commodity on the PGA Tour this year after posting a disastrous 2024 campaign that's seen him provide only one top-15 finish.
I realize the concerns of this being a wasted season, but the 26-year-old finally showed some approach production at the Olympics, landing as a top-15 projected scorer if he delivered a baseline short-game expectation.
What that short-game expectation actually is after regressing to his old self around the greens is unknown, but these are pure putting complexes that could do the same thing that my model believed would happen at the Olympics (enhancing his ball-striking and reducing his scrambling because of all the water that will enter the fray).
While it didn't happen the way I hoped in France, I will buy back in one more time on a golfer that's gained off the tee in eight straight starts and will be criminally under-owned for DFS purposes.
Cameron Young ($8,100)
When discussing additional names with sub-10 percent ownership, we could also consider options like Sahith Theegala and Wyndham Clark.
You have to know what you're signing up for with any of these options because none are for the faint of heart (and all won't find success), but I thought we got this extremely enticing section when you add in a marginally-over 10 percent Tom Kim.
For Cam Young, that reason is his lack of win equity, which he continues to demonstrate. Still, the form has been trending upwards over his past four starts, and the lack of public belief makes him a value in every sense of the word for DFS.
Am I going to bet him to win? No. However, Young doesn't necessarily need a result like that to warrant the price tag.
Let's continue buying low on a golfer that the public has turned on completely and hope for a top-10 result.
Wyndham Championship Fades
These golfers may or may not have high ownership when diving into DFS. I opened the playbook up a little here since I also wanted to find fade-worthy candidates in the matchup market.
Robert MacIntyre ($7,100)
I started the fade section of my article in the same fashion last week, albeit with a much higher-priced version of Robert MacIntyre.
We aren't getting a popular rendering of MacIntyre in the DFS realm because of his boom-or-bust nature. Maybe that helps to create some wonky version of playability because his ceiling has shown to be high after winning two times in the past handful of months.
But more of where I'm going with this idea is that I thought there were some openings to consider in the head-to-head sector when shopping around.
I'll take partial credit for Davis Thompson and Maverick McNealy's heavy price movement when analyzing direct matchups against the two-time winner this season.
While neither of those opponents possess a floor projection that makes me feel overly bullish, I did feel like we were grabbing fringe top-30 players (higher for Thompson) against a golfer in MacIntyre who graded as my worst value on the board.
None of that suggests that the 28-year-old can't find success for portions of this event because of his output on Zoysia Fairways, Sand Save Percentage and Bogey Avoidance, but my concerns land under the same belief as last week (the data started to point toward him losing his top three assets of distance, long iron proximity and putting on comp courses).
Here's where my model ranked MacIntyre in those specific categories versus his baseline projection elsewhere:
*** MacIntyre is the No. 1 player from 200+ yards. Receiving a reduction of 8.2% from that range, and removal of two par-five holes didn't help increase his expectations.**
If you want to play MacIntyre, your best bet is to go for upside portions of the market. However, I'll take on the volatility over four days as a pure head-to-head candidate.
Justin Rose ($6,600)
You might notice that I'm playing many of the hits I did last week at the Wyndham Championship.
That iteration of the event pushed me toward fading Justin Rose by backing Eric Cole. I talked a lot during the Wyndham Championship about Cole and Ben Griffin being the two best values on the board.
The Cole example landed us an easy victory last week, and the hope is that Griffin can accomplish the same task at his -115 price.
Rose has been all over the map this season, highlighted by robust top-six finishes at the Open Championship and PGA Championship, followed by no result landing better than 32nd in his additional six starts since May 19.
I've noted quite frequently this year that the 44-year-old has carried more name recognition in these markets because of his storied career, but with that answer comes general soft pricing when the market fails to react to sub-par form.
Rose's success at this venue in the past can be credited to his Weighted Proximity from 125-200 yards, a category where he still ranks inside the top 25.
Nonetheless, the driver remains a problem (55th place expectation in this field), which is accompanied by a grade of 62nd for Weighted Scoring, 67th at TPC courses and 69th when faced with Fast Bermuda complexes.
Griffin may not be the ideal candidate because of his driving woes, but I will give the same stat I did last week when talking about him on Bermuda versus any other venue.
Please note that this doesn't include last week's tournament.
- Last 26 rounds Putting on non-Bermuda (-3.75)
- Last 26 rounds Putting on Bermuda (+25.2). He gained an additional 0.9 at the Wyndham.
Tony Finau ($8,800)
I used Bhatia as my high-end fade last week at the Wyndham Championship, and I think Tony Finau possesses qualities similar to those in the profile we got from Bhatia.
Finau has been a golfer who quietly gets hurt when you remove two par-fives from his daily output on a Par 70. That makes a lot of sense since the American ranks first in my model for Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage.
I ran the past 24 rounds of Finau taking on a Par 70 venue compared to those playing this week and watched his Strokes Gained Projection drop from seventh at any other non-Par 70 to 57th when only getting two par-five locations a day.
Add that to a 57th-place grade for Strokes Gained Total on Fast/Lightning Greens and a 13-spot downturn in Expected Tee-To-Green Expectation (5th to 18th), and you get more concerns than I felt comfortable backing for a top-15-owned player on the slate.
I took Corey Conners in a matchup against him at -110 with our friends at bet365.
