Here's everything you need to know about 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader picks — including my three Thursday FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Memphis, Tennessee.
TPC Southwind hosts the FedEx St. Jude Championship once again this season, which it has done each of the past two years.
TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,243-yard track designed by Ron Prichard. The recipe for success at this venue is quite simple: hit your greens and avoid the hazards.
Last season, three of the top five finishers here ranked ninth or higher among the field in greens in regulation percentage, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred. Furthermore, 24.1% of approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range, the largest distribution (by a wide margin) of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Tony Sartori's FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Scottie Scheffler +1200 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:45 p.m. ET
This play is a way for us to be tied to the tournament favorite at a much more desirable payout of 12/1 compared to his 7/2 outright odds. While there is obviously more volatility in the FRL market, Scottie Scheffler could go wire-to-wire and nobody would even bat an eye this week.
I know Xander Schauffele has the two majors and there is an argument to be had that makes his year on Tour "more successful", but, in my mind, there is still no denying that Scottie is the best golfer on the planet. Including the Olympics, Scheffler has won eight of his past 18 tournaments with eight additional top-10 finishes.
You read that right – he has finished outside the top 10 just twice over the past eight months. Obviously he can finish tournaments, but he also almost always starts strong as Scottie ranks first on Tour this season in Round 1 Scoring Average, which makes me like his 12/1 number in the FRL market more than his outright price of +350.
Tommy Fleetwood +3500 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
Tommy Fleetwood is always one of my favorite targets in the FRL market. The guy is cursed on American soil when competing down the stretch on Sundays, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he is still one of the best golfers in the world.
Point being, I trust Fleetwood far more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday, which is cemented by the fact that he ranks in the top-third on Tour this season in Round 1 Scoring Average. He also possesses a tremendous track record at this venue, finishing T3 last season and T4 in 2019.
Adam Scott +5000 (BetRivers | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
I couldn't quite get to the window on Adam Scott to win this tournament outright against this loaded of a field, but I think his floor is high enough for him to compete in any of the rounds when isolated. Entering this tournament in great form, Scott has made the weekend in 11 of his past 12 tournaments, posting four top-15 finishes over that stretch.
What makes me most impressed about Scott's recent play is his all-around game. He's hitting the ball far, remaining accurate both off the tee and on the approach, sinking putts and scrambling well when needed.
Another reason to like Scott this week is course fit, considering that he has three top-10 finishes through five career appearances at TPC Southwind. This trend shouldn't be surprising, given that he ranks above the Tour average in greens in regulation percentage from 150-175 yards.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks podcast:
- Tony Finau Outright Winner (+3500 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Corey Conners Outright Winner (+4000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Aaron Rai Outright Winner (+4500 at BetRivers) – 0.3 Units
- Sahith Theegala Outright Winner (+5000 at BetRivers) – 0.3 Units
- Alex Noren Top 10 (+500 at DraftKings) – 0.24 Units
- Cameron Young Top 5 (+750 at DraftKings) – 0.23 Units
- Scottie Scheffler FRL (+1200 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
- Tommy Fleetwood FRL (+3500 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
- Adam Scott FRL (+5000 at BetRivers) – 0.15 Units
