Here's everything you need to know about 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship PrizePicks plays for Thursday.
TPC Southwind hosts the FedEx St. Jude Championship once again this season, which it has done each of the past two years.
TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,243-yard track designed by Ron Prichard. The recipe for success at this venue is quite simple: hit greens and avoid the hazards.
Last season, three of the top five finishers here ranked ninth or better among the field in greens-in-regulation percentage, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Furthermore, 24.1% of approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range, the largest distribution (by a wide margin) of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Find my 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship PrizePicks plays for Thursday below.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship PrizePicks
Tom Kim More Than 68 Strokes
I am a big fan of Tom Kim's game, but 68 strokes is just too low of a number for Thursday's opening round. First, let's take a look at how Kim has fared against this level of competition this season on Tour.
He missed the cut at The Open Championship and failed to crack the topv25 in any of the other three majors. While Kim has posted some solid results at TPC Southwind, he has still failed to stay lower than this number in four of his past five rounds at this venue.
This trend makes sense, considering that Kim ranks 142nd on Tour this season in greens-in-regulation percentage from 150-175 yards.
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Tommy Fleetwood Less Than 68 Strokes
I wrote about Tommy Fleetwood in my first-round-leader article this week, and if I like him to lead after the first round, then I also like him to shoot 68 or lower.
He did just that in all four rounds here last season, a trend I expect to continue on Thursday.
Fleetwood has now posted two top-four finishes over his four career appearances at TPC Southwind, and the course fit makes sense considering his accuracy both off the tee and on the approach.
He also enters this week in fantastic form following his runner-up performance at the Olympics and seven top-20 finishes over his past 12 tournaments.
The Englishman is capable of getting off to hot starts, ranking in the top-third on Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season.
Xander Schauffele More Than 67 Strokes
Like the Tom Kim pick to start this article, I believe Xander Schauffele's PrizePicks square is set too low at 67. He has shot a 68 or higher in four of his past five rounds at TPC Southwind and has failed to crack the top 20 in five of his six career tournaments on these grounds.
This trend makes sense, considering that Schauffele ranks 163rd on Tour this season in greens-in-regulation percentage from 150-175 yards at a mere 54.7% — one of the worst marks on Tour from that range.
An inconsistent driver — at least in terms of accuracy — is one of the only other flaws for Schauffele, which is going to be penalized more at a venue like TPC Southwind that features thick rough and an abundance of hazards.
For a more in-depth analysis of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, check out the Links + Locks podcast.
