We are coming off one of the wildest weeks on the PGA TOUR in recent memory. It started with bad weather that pushed the start of the tournament to Friday. Despite the slow pace of play, it looked like they were going to finish the event on Sunday. Max Greyserman was coasting to victory before posting an eight on the scorecard and then four-putting two holes later. This collapse looked like the highlight of the event before Matt Kuchar opted to not finish his round after teeing off on the 18th hole. He came back the next morning to finish out with a par. Many on social media naturally had some fun with this.
We now turn our attention to the FedExCup Playoffs. This is the first of three playoff events. If you aren’t familiar with the format, there are 70 golfers set to tee it up this week in Memphis. The top 50 in the FedExCup Standings will move on to play the BMW Championship, and the top 30 after that event will move on to play the TOUR Championship. There are plenty of exemptions and a lot of money up for grabs over the final three weeks of the season.
TPC Southwind is a par-70 track that measures 7,243 yards. It features water hazards on 11 of the 18 holes and there are only two par fives on the scorecard, so it’s not a surprise that the winning score the last five years has been between 13-under and 16-under. In terms of difficulty, the course has played as the 37th, 30th, 32nd, 14th and 24th toughest on TOUR over the last five years.
The fairways here are narrow (29 yards wide) and the greens are small (4,300 square feet). Due to this, the fairways are tough to hit on average and the greens are tough to hit in regulation. This is one of a few courses where driving accuracy is more important than driving distance. In these situations, I lean on total driving and strokes gained off the tee.
We’ve seen plenty of bad putters play well here over the years (Lucas Glover, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, etc). This likely has so mething to do with the small greens. Smaller targets emphasize approach play and scrambling. In terms of the key statistics for the week, I am looking at total driving, strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance, and strokes gained putting on bermuda greens.
Let’s find a winner!
2024 FedEx St. Jude Predictions
Starting bankroll: $1,000
Last week: -$100
Current bankroll: $320
Patrick Cantlay
Outright +2500 (BetMGM): $10 to pay $260
Top 5 +450 (bet365): $15 to pay $82
It’s been a down year for Cantlay. Perhaps it has something to do with his light schedule or perhaps it has something to do with his position on the PAC (Player Advisory Council). The good news is that he’s starting to show some signs of life with back-to-back top 5 finishes at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship. While his track record at the majors leaves much to be desired, he has been a machine in the FedExCup Playoffs. He won two playoff events in 2021, he won the BMW Championship in 2022, and he finished runner-up at this event last year. I’m willing to take a chance on a golfer with a strong playoff pedigree at these odds.
Tom Kim
Outright +3300 (BetMGM): $10 to pay $340
Top 5 +550 (DraftKings): $15 to pay $97
Kim didn’t show much upside early in the season but has racked up three top 10 finishes in his last eight starts. His underlying statistics are encouraging, as he has gained at least 2 strokes off the tee in six of his last nine starts and at least 3.5 strokes on approach in four of his last six starts. We’ve seen him play his best on shorter courses that demand accuracy off the tee and TPC Southwind certainly fits the mold. In his two appearances at this event, he has finished T24 and T13. He has plenty of experience in big events, so he won’t shy away if he’s in the mix on Sunday.
Sungjae Im
Outright +4000 (FanDuel): $10 to pay $410 Top 5 +750 (DraftKings): $15 to pay $127 I’m surprised we are getting +4000 odds on Im this week. While his T41 finish was a bit of a letdown last week, he’s been in elite form over the last few months. He has finished T12 or better in 8 of his last 11 events. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s consistently gaining strokes with his irons, he’s one of the best around the greens, and he has always putted well on bermuda. He’s never missed a cut at this event and has finished T6 and T12 here the last two years.
Billy Horschel
Outright +4500 (FanDuel): $10 to pay $460
Top 5 +800 (bet365): $15 to pay $135
Last but not least, we have the Florida Gator himself. He also added to the excitement of last week’s event, as he was cheering on a few of his mates still on the course. After finishing T2 at The Open Championship, he followed it up with a top 10 at the Wyndham Championship. He’s always been a streaky golfer and seems to be playing with house money at this point. We’ve seen him catch fire in the FedExCup Playoffs in the past and we’ve seen him play well at this course (five top 10 finishes). He’s a long-shot, but this is a course that could produce an unexpected winner.
Good luck this week!
