Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Genesis Invitational Best Bets & expert picks for the PGA Tour's third Signature Event of 2024 at Riviera Country Club.
Jason Sobel, Spencer Aguiar and Matt Gannon have picks for Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Russell Henley and more as we break down our 2024 Genesis Invitational Best Bets.
2024 Genesis Invitational Best Bets, Expert Picks
Jason Sobel: Adam Scott Top 10 +250 (bet365)
If there was a player whose personality seemingly didn’t fit the rowdy vibe in Phoenix, it was Adam Scott, who’d only played there once before in his illustrious career. The fact that he even showed up suggests he likes where his game is at, and the fact that he finished T8 suggests that there’s more to come very soon.
I would’ve lost a bet, say, three years ago on whether Scott would actually increase his playing schedule well into his 40s, but it’s impressive that he continues to grind, and I still believe he has one fairly big win left, even if that’s not a major championship.
This one, which he’s won once with an asterisk and once without, is right up his alley, as he’s posted seven career top-10 finishes in 15 appearances at Riv.
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Spencer Aguiar: Russell Henley -120 Over Denny McCarthy (DraftKings)
The true best bet to target would have been Adam Scott at -130 over Sungjae Im before the market ballooned that out into the -170 range. Unfortunately, that has removed most of the value on the board. Nonetheless, I am going to target Denny McCarthy in a matchup here with Russell Henley for two main reasons.
For starters, McCarthy's bottom-five return for projected Weighted Tee to Green at Riviera Country Club is a massively negative mark that is hard to ignore. Much of that grade stemmed from the overall reduction in Strokes Gained: Around the Green that I placed in my model compared to most.
You can hear more about why that is my belief during this week's Links + Locks podcast when that goes live on Tuesday evening. However, there is a reason why McCarthy has been all or nothing at this venue in the past.
On the other side of this bet, Henley's upside rank placed him as a top-25 projected scorer on both challenging tracks and the recondensed version of this course. All of that gives us a wager where neither option has much par-five scoring ability. Still, there is an edge to be found on the challenging par-four locations. Give me those opportunities over four days, and I will bet Henley wins enough mini-battles to get himself across the finish line.
Matt Gannon: Scottie Scheffler Top 10 -140 (FanDuel)
If it ain't broke, dont fix it! Scottie Scheffler is coming off another top-five finish last week in Phoenix. More than anything else, I love how his game sets up for Riviera.
Over the last few years, the top players in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Driving Distance have excelled at this golf course. Scheffler ranks first on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 11th in Driving Distance. He is both long and straight off the tee, which will give him a massive advantage on this golf course.
In addition to that statistical advantage, I love how much golf he has played to start 2024. Scheffler has as many reps as anyone and will not have to deal with “knocking the rust off” like a few other big names will. -140 odds are not pretty, but Scheffler has been a top-10 cash machine if you don’t mind laying some juice.
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2024 Genesis Invitational Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Scottie Scheffler +800
- Spencer Aguiar: Viktor Hovland +1500
- Matt Gannon: Scottie Scheffler +800
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +14000
- Aguiar: Si Woo Kim +6500
- Gannon: Cam Davis +10000
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Tom Kim +5000
- Aguiar: Max Homa +1900
- Gannon: Adam Scott +3200
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Will Zalatoris +5500
- Aguiar: Tommy Fleetwood +3500
- Gannon: Matt Fitzpatrick +4500
Trend That Guides Your 2024 Genesis Invitational Betting Strategy
Aguiar: In a condensed field with minimal missed-cut equity, I am shooting for upside on the board in all spots. That is a prototypical answer you would expect to see in the outright market, but even my matchups will allow for more of that ceiling output than usual since most golfers will play four rounds of golf.
How we build a model from there will be what makes us unique, but don't be afraid to take some shots on a board that features mostly the best players in the world (or what is left on the PGA Tour after the LIV departures).
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Gannon: Week in and week out, I try to dive into a few stats and really drill them home with the golfers who are trending. However, this week I am putting a tad more weight on course history than I usually do. I never emphasize course history too much because the golfers who play well in given events were probably entering playing solid golf.
At Riviera, similar golfers tend to play well here every single year. Riviera is right up there with Augusta National and Kapalua in terms of course-history predictability, and golfers who play well at those courses also play well here. If you are looking for a golfer who is not playing the best golf at the moment but has done well consistently at Riviera, you should strongly consider betting him.
