Seventy players will tee it up this week at the famed Riviera Country Club, including Tiger Woods! Isn't golf just a little sweeter when he is playing?
It is difficult to know precisely where Woods will be with his game after last competing in the Hero World Challenge when he finished 18th out of 20 players, but the fact that the best player of all time is in a proper field this week is a win for the game of golf.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Genesis Invitational Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Genesis Invitational Tournament Preview podcast.
2024 Genesis Invitational Biggest Market Movers
Adam Scott has been the most significant riser in the market over the past 48 hours, shifting from 40-1 to 30-1 at most books. His sharp movement in matchups added to that highly indicative return, with the Aussie landing as a large favorite against Sungjae Im, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala and Tommy Fleetwood in head-to-head battles.
Some of those golfers graded better than others in my model, but the fact that he is holding his own in matchups against Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg and Max Homa should paint a strong picture that this is credible movement versus square action.
My model found names like Justin Thomas, Kurt Kitayama and Wyndham Clark to be better wagers for safety markets since each graded as a positive value for the week while lacking some of that high-end upside at their going rates. However, bettors who want to consider the trio for matchup or placement bets can still find value against the correct opponent.
Then we have the dilemma of Tiger Woods and the constant public onslaught of dollars that will follow him anytime he tees it up. Most markets in the space have provided a one-way street of action regarding his props, meaning you can only bet him to succeed and not fail.
I always say books do that to attract a specific bettor, so while I would love to be wrong in this scenario and have Tiger Woods win the Genesis Invitational, I don't personally see value in the price.
2024 Genesis Invitational Outright Picks
Viktor Hovland +1600 (Widely Available)
You likely can shop around and find better than 16-1 if you have access to various books, although the 16-1 price at PointsBet, Caesars and FanDuel would be your best current bet in the legal market.
None of this is to suggest that Hovland is some sure-fire commodity who doesn't have a massively low floor given his shaky start to 2024, but as I said on Links & Locks, his public implosion at Pebble Beach and eventual withdrawal from the WM Phoenix Open has become engrained in the minds of most bettors.
While Hovland's start to this season has left much to be desired, he does enter the contest with 18 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better while possessing the top-ranked return in my model for past success at Riviera.
Add that to six top-seven grades in my model out of eight categories when diving into Weighted Proximity, Total Driving, Weighted Scoring, historical Strokes Gained on Fast Poa Greens, long-term Strokes Gained on Challenging Courses, and Weighted Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds, and you get a golfer who has seen too far of a shift with his price.
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (BetMGM)
There has been this heightened frustration in 2024 from the public because of Patrick Cantlay's inflated pricing in the outright sector and subsequent poor results.
While he should be held accountable for his poor play and recent downturn across the board with his tee-to-green data, there is enough long-term intrigue to consider for a golfer who placed inside the top five of my model for Projected scoring on Similar Courses, Fast Poa, and Par-4 Scoring from 450-500 yards.
I've always said the true value range to consider him comes into play when he gets priced at 20/1 or higher, which puts us back into number-grab territory here.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
There is not a ton of value left on this board at the very top, although we do have some deeper options to consider if you have room left on the card.
I did remove Hovland since you can still find them at the same going rate as what was recommended up top.
