The PGA Tour season continues this week with the 2024 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club. Our Action Network golf betting experts have already peppered the board at open on Monday morning with outright bets, and they have four ready.
Find our 2024 Genesis Invitational Outright Bets below.
2024 Genesis Invitational Outright Bets
Spencer Aguiar: Viktor Hovland +1500 (bet365) & Patrick Cantlay +2200
My model seemed to believe there were two golfers in this field who experienced a drift in their price compared to the rest of the market.
The first is Patrick Cantlay, a name you can find at 22/1 if you shop around different locations. The California stalwart has hit a point of public frustration, placing us in a position where the early-season prices are outweighing the stats in the mind of most since most books had him at roughly 12/1 to begin the season in all events.
I've always said the proper price for Cantlay should be 20/1+, which puts us back into number-grab territory for a golfer who placed in the top five of my model for projected scoring on similar courses, fast Poa, and par-4 scoring from 450-500 yards.
The second name I want to highlight here is Viktor Hovland at 15/1 at bet365. A poor showing at Pebble Beach and subsequent withdrawal before the WM Phoenix Open has shifted the intrigue from most inside the space.
Hovland's 58th-place finish at Pebble Beach isn't inspiring as Hovland felt he was off and needed to get some practice in before restarting his season. However, I do want to note that despite his flawed performances in both starts this season, Hovland still places third in this field with 18 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better. My thought here is that the narrative of struggles may be partially overblown.
Hovland ranked as the best player in my model historically at Riviera Country Club when looking at past results, and the four top-six grades in my model out of seven categories placed behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy when shooting for pure upside.
There is a reason most books listed him with the third-shortest outright odds at open, but I don't believe there is a massive difference as to why he has drifted way behind McIlroy and is moving behind names like Xander Schauffele with his current price.
Jason Sobel: Corey Conners +8000 (FanDuel)
I was on Corey Conners at the year’s first two events in Hawaii, with the caveat that I believed he was going to win soon, and I didn’t want to miss out.
A month later, he’s not quite knocking on the door, but three straight results of ascending order should have us a bit optimistic, even if his past performances at Riv – three missed cuts and a 61st-place finish last year – do not. That’s both curious and concerning for one of the game’s better ball-strikers on what is undoubtedly a ball-strikers’ course, but at this point in the game, we’re simply hunting numbers, and Conners’ number looks too good to pass up.
This is hardly one of those no-doubt-about-‘ems, which apparently don’t exist in PGA Tour golf anymore, but rather a decent spot to take a chance on a player in this brave new world where seemingly anyone can win on any given week.
Roberto Arguello: Justin Thomas +2200 (bet365)
Justin Thomas is one of the elite players in this field at a course that has historically rewarded great ball-strikers. Throughout his career, JT's approach game has been elite from 150-200 yards, although when he struggled with his swing in 2023, he really fell off from this distance, as you can see here.
| Year | Thomas Proximity Rank 150-175 Yards | Thomas Proximity Rank 175-200 Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 86 |
| 2022 | 3 | 16 |
| 2021 | 4 | 13 |
| 2020 | 12 | 45 |
| 2019 | 13 | 27 |
After ranking in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach for the previous six years, Thomas fell to 39th last season, largely because of this drop-off from 150-200 yards. This season in a small sample size, he’s already back up to 17th in SG: Approach, and I’m bullish that he will likely end up in the top 10. More than twice as many golfers beat him last season on Approach (38) than total golfers ranked ahead of him on approach in the prior six seasons combined (18)!
| Year | Thomas SG: Approach Ranking |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 39 |
| 2022 | 8 |
| 2021 | 3 |
| 2020 | 1 |
| 2019 | 2 |
| 2018 | 4 |
| 2017 | 6 |
Now that Thomas’s irons are back to his normal elite standard, his putting is also coming around. In his last six official starts on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, Thomas has gained strokes putting five times. This is a significant improvement over his putting woes in 2023 because in his previous 18 starts on the PGA Tour, he gained strokes putting just four times.
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Thomas’s Off the Tee game is solid – 33rd this season, although he has always been good-but-not-great Off the Tee – but his short game remains elite as he is third this season in SG: Around the Green. With Riviera’s Kikuyu rough providing a stiffer challenge to those who miss greens in regulation than most other PGA Tour courses, Thomas is well suited to separate from others with his world-class short game.
JT has also thrived at Riv in the past with four top-20 finishes in the last six years. Put together his putting trending up and a strong course fit that emphasizes his elite short game and iron play, and I love Thomas’s chances of winning this week at The Genesis Invitational. He is one of the few elite golfers in this field with no weakness whom I have the confidence in to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in this stacked field.
Bet365 currently has the best price currently in the outright market at +2200, and I’d bet him down to +1800.
Matt Gannon: Justin Thomas +2200 (bet365)
Thomas continues to put on a tee-to-green display to start 2024, and his putter has not been entirely bad. Usually, the Justin Thomas case is “the ball striking is so good, but he just needs to find something with the putter.” While that remains true, the putter has looked better. Last week he gained about a half stroke to the field rather than entirely squandering strokes to the field.
This is an event Thomas plays on a regular basis. In nine trips to LA, he has made the cut seven times and has both a tie for sixth and a second.
He has seemingly struggled once he finds himself in the weekend pressure, which is unlike the JT we know and love. After a year of poor golf, it was always going to take some time to settle those nerves under the gun. Every solid week of golf is prepping him for his next week, and I believe that may culminate this weekend.
The narrative around “Tiger and JT” is also a driving force for JT’s motivation to win this weekend. I totally understand it, but I am not hearing much about it this time around. Either people have forgot or have had enough of the narrative. This seems like a great spot to swoop in and buy some JT!
