Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Genesis Invitational first-round leader picks — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event at Riviera Country Club.
With the WM Phoenix Open in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Genesis Invitational in Pacific Palisades, California. This is the third Signature Event of the season and features a 70-man field with a 36-hole cut to the top 50 plus ties (and any players within 10 shots of the lead will also play the weekend).
The Riviera Country Club will once again host this event, which it has done annually since 1973. Riviera is a par-71, 7,322-yard track designed by George C. Thomas that rewards long hitters and those who can scramble on difficult Poa annua greens.
Find my 2024 Genesis Invitational first-round leader picks below.
2024 Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Picks
Tom Hoge +8000 (BetRivers | 0.11 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 11:08 a.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the day progresses. Additionally, these Poa annua putting surfaces can also get more bumpy around the hole later in the round.
The earlier you tee off, the more soft greens you face that are much more receptive to your shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
In fact, the optimal time to be off the course is before 3 p.m. PT, as that is when the wind is expected to rise above 10 miles per hour. That is great news for guys like Tom Hoge, who will be off the course by then as he tees off in the fifth morning group.
This is a bit of a dart throw at 80-1, but Hoge can score alongside with anyone in his strong rounds, and I trust him far more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday. He only has one win on Tour, but Hoge can always claim a round with his volatile high-birdie/high-bogey style of golf.
We are currently in the midst of one of his good stretches in terms of volatility, as he has three top-17 finishes over his past four tournaments. The ball-striking and putting have both been on fire, gaining true strokes both on approach and on the greens in each of those four tournaments.
Two of those tournaments took place on Poa annua greens, which is the surface again this week. Finally, Hoge proved he can score here with a T14 finish last season.
J.T. Poston +4000 (DraftKings | 0.14 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 11:20 a.m. ET
J.T. Poston tees off in the group immediately following Hoge, which means he will also be off the course before those afternoon winds pick up. This is a buy-low situation on Poston after he missed the cut in Scottsdale last week.
Prior to that tournament, Poston had made 13 consecutive cuts with a staggering seven finishes inside the top seven over that stretch. Expect him to return to form this week, especially in a tournament where he has made four of six cuts.
The main reason I like Poston at Riviera is his ability to scramble as he currently ranks 16th on Tour in Scrambling percentage. Last season, four of the top five finishers here ranked in the top seven among the field in scrambling percentage, the only metric in which that occurred.
Finally, I have no doubt that Poston will handle these Poa annua greens, considering he gained +1.42 true strokes putting at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has established himself as one of the elite putters on Tour.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Genesis Invitational, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Justin Thomas Outright Winner (+1900 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- Collin Morikawa Outright Winner (+2200 at bet365) – 0.33 Units
- Sam Burns Top Five (+550 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Keegan Bradley Top 10 (+450 at DraftKings) – 0.27 Units
- Si Woo Kim Top 20 (+160 at DraftKings) – 0.24 Units
- Charley Hoffman Top 30 (+165 at DraftKings) – 0.20 Units
- Nick Hardy Top 40 (+100 at DraftKings) – 0.17 Units
- J.T. Poston FRL (+4000 at DraftKings) – 0.14 Units
- Tom Hoge FRL (+8000 at BetRivers) – 0.11 Units
