Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Genesis Invitational Picks — our expert PGA Tour mega guide and golf betting picks for this week's PGA Tour event at Riviera Country Club.
If we allow that Wyndham Clark was priced at 100-1 before the tournament at some books before his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am victory, that’s now six consecutive winners with triple-digit odds to start the PGA Tour season following Nick Taylor’s playoff triumph at the WM Phoenix Open.
For those of us who are trying to prognosticate these things, perhaps the silver lining in this trend is that we’ve progressed from mind-benders such as Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap to Clark and Taylor, each of whom had reasons to be considered viable candidates before their wins.
It should only – as I’ve been writing for a month now – embolden the masses to continue betting longshot outrights for at least the short-term future, including this week’s 2024 Genesis Invitational, the third short-field Signature Event of the year.
This alone might prompt some bettors to skip right to the 100-1-and-bigger numbers, start scanning for a familiar name and come across tournament host Tiger Woods at 110-1. (It should be seen as a compliment to the public that Woods isn’t half this price, as bettors have largely progressed in recent years from blindly throwing money on their favorite player to being shrewder with their portfolios.)
The big news surrounding Tiger, at least early in the week, will be about his wardrobe, as he makes his first appearance in the post-Nike era. That’s understandable, but I’m much more intrigued by his health, his swing, his demeanor and other aspects of his game which should give us a window into how his potential once-per-month schedule could play out. The shirt will be red on Sunday, oh by the way.
While all eyes will be on the host during the tournament rounds, I’ll remind you that this week’s sample size shouldn’t be extrapolated for what we’ll witness from him throughout the year.
After all, even when he was at the height of his powers, Tiger had difficulty taming Riviera, the one mainstay on his schedule where he never claimed a trophy. Even if he feels great and looks great and swings it great, there are clues to suggest that the result still might not look all that great by week’s end. Which is fine, of course. He’ll have bigger fish to fry in coming months.
Instead, let’s look elsewhere for the next big-priced winner on the Longshot Tour.
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2024 Genesis Invitational Picks
2024 Genesis Invitational Outright Picks
One player to win the tournament at short odds
Corey Conners (+8000)
It should be considered either an indictment of the current trends or a celebration of them that the player listed for this weekly outright selection at "short odds" owns an 80/1 price. I was on Corey Conners at the year’s first two events in Hawaii, with the caveat that I believed he was going to win soon, and I didn’t want to miss out.
A month later, he’s not quite knocking on the door, but three straight results of ascending order should have us a bit optimistic, even if his past performances at Riv – three missed cuts and a 61st-place finish last year – do not. That’s both curious and concerning for one of the game’s better ball-strikers on what is undoubtedly a ball-strikers’ course, but at this point in the game, we’re simply hunting numbers, and Conners’ number looks too good to pass up.
This is hardly one of those no-doubt-about-‘ems, which apparently don’t exist in PGA Tour golf anymore, but rather a decent spot to take a chance on a player in this brave new world where seemingly anyone can win on any given week.
One player to win the tournament at long odds
Emiliano Grillo (+11000)
Like Conners, Emiliano Grillo is a player with a price that feels too long and a skillset which fits this course. Unfortunately, he also has a Conners-like record at this event, as his four starts include a T21 mixed in with a T67 and two MCs.
That said, he’s much improved from where he was the past few years. I’ve always felt Grillo owns top-20-in-the-world type of talent, and maybe he’s starting to show it, as the current 35th-ranked player owns finishes of 22nd-or-better in each of his last four starts.
I know the world wants another triple-digit play, but in this shortened field, there aren’t too many candidates. Grillo fits the bill – as do, potentially, Taylor Montgomery and Christiaan Bezuidenhout – and a Colonial/Riviera double would be a pretty strong profile-builder.
2024 Genesis Invitational One & Done Picks
Other OADers
Potential selections for one-and-done pools
Will Zalatoris (+3500)
When Will Zalatoris made his return to competitive golf after a back injury that sidelined him for much of last season, I suggested that we tread carefully in the early going. In his first two starts, he finished 20th at the 20-man Hero World Challenge and missed the cut at the Sony Open, but his two subsequent starts have given us reason to be interested once again.
In these events — a T34 at The AmEx and T13 at the Farmers — he gained strokes in every major category. And yes, that does include putting. At Riviera, where he was solo fourth last year, the Poa annua greens tend to level the playing field, meaning there’s less dispersion between the above-average putters and below-average putters.
He makes sense for OADs, and at this price, I have zero issue backing Zalatoris for the outright victory, as well.
Sahith Theegala (+3500)
At this still-early stage of his career, it’s fair to trust Sahith Theegala more on his native West Coast than elsewhere in the world. Not that he can’t play well in various other environments – he’s already proven he can – but if you’ve got one place to use him, a West Coast event seems to make the most sense, and we’re running out of ‘em. Coming off a fifth-place finish in Phoenix, chasing his T6 here last year offers plenty of promise.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
As I’ve written (many times) previously, the places to target Matt Fitzpatrick are those which pique his interest from either an architectural standpoint or an elevated challenge, and Riv should fit his requirements. Following a T15 at TPC Scottsdale that might not have suited him at all, a T5 in his three tries at Riv suggests this one will have his full attention.
2024 Genesis Invitational Placement Bet Picks
Top Five
One player to finish in the top five
Scottie Scheffler (+165 for Top-five Finish)
Believe it or not, Scottie Scheffler had gone two whole tournaments without a top-five finish before getting back on track with a tie for third in Phoenix. (And yes, for the sarcasm-impaired, one of those top-five misses was indeed a tie for sixth at Pebble Beach.)
Over the last couple of years, his best results have tended to come in bunches, so there’s reason to not overthink this play and simply add him for another title contention as he starts gaining momentum, especially if we’re seeking more of a sure thing to supplement some longer outright plays.
Top 10
One player to finish in the top 10
Adam Scott (+330 for Top-10 Finish)
Alluding to the previous section on Fitzpatrick, if there was a player whose personality seemingly didn’t fit the vibe in Phoenix, it was Adam Scott, who’d only played there once before in his illustrious career. The fact that he even showed up suggests he likes where his game is at, and the fact that he finished T8 suggests that there’s more to come very soon.
I would’ve lost a bet, say, three years ago on whether Scott would actually increase his playing schedule well into his 40s, but it’s impressive that he continues to grind, and I still believe he has one fairly big win left, even if that’s not a major championship. This one, which he’s won once with an asterisk and once without, is right up his alley, as he’s posted seven career top-10 finishes in 15 appearances at Riv.
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Top 20
One player to finish in the top 20
Keegan Bradley (+190 for Top-20 Finish)
After starting his Genesis Invitational (then Northern Trust Open) career with four top-20 finishes in his first five appearances, Keegan Bradley has cooled off like a damp Los Angeles afternoon in mid-February by failing to break that barrier in each of his last eight.
Well, there’s nothing like a 70-player field to help those top-20 chances, and at a price close to 2-to-1, I’m willing to buy that he relearns how to find some success around this track.
2024 Genesis Invitational DFS Picks
DFS Free Bingo Square
A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups
Collin Morikawa
The easy answer here is Scottie Scheffler, and the other easy answer is Max Homa. I won’t sway you from either of those guys if you’re inclined to spend up, but I also probably can’t tell you much about either that you don’t know. Instead, let’s pivot to Collin Morikawa, whose ownership numbers in tournament contests could remain a bit repressed if DFSers opt for the aforementioned other two.
All the SoCal native has done in the past two years at this event is a T2 and a T6 – and coming off a T14 at Pebble Beach two weeks ago, he should be primed for yet another title contention.
DFS Mid-Tier
A medium-priced option for DFS lineups
Jordan Spieth
I’m admittedly stretching the limits of the mid-tier here, but in the early part of this year, Jordan Spieth looks like he’s on a little bit of a mission to regain his elite-level status amongst the game’s best players. Last week’s T6 was his fourth such result in his last seven starts dating back to last season, and while his record at this tournament offers a wide ceiling/floor range, his current form is enough to have us intrigued.
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DFS ‘Dog
A lower-priced option for DFS lineups
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
His runner-up finish at The American Express came with a first-place check when then-amateur Nick Dunlap took the title, but there’s reason to believe Christiaan Bezuidenhout will get a trophy along with that type of payout in the not-too-distant future.
Over his last four starts, his iron play has been tremendous, gaining over a stroke per round in each of those and more than two strokes in two of them. While I think this might be too tough of a field for that first PGA Tour victory, stranger things have already happened this year, and that 150/1 outright price certainly fits some recent narratives.
2024 Genesis Invitational Misc. Picks
First-Round Leader
One player to post the low round Thursday
Tony Finau (+3000 for FRL)
Considering his recent success at Riv, Tony Finau’s name will be on plenty of cards this week. I don’t dislike that idea, but for a guy who’s broken 70 in three of four opening rounds this year and four of his last seven Thursdays on this course, I’ll take a shot on him in the FRL market.
Matchup Man
One player who should beat comparable players
Tom Hoge (+13000)
Initially, the play here might’ve been Lucas Glover, as I imagined that nothing should have a veteran player more motivated than misreading his tee time and being forced to withdraw last week at the WM Phoenix Open, but his record of seven straight MCs at this event left me too scared, even in this limited-field edition of the tourney.
By the way, unlike the prior two Signature Events, The Genesis Invitational will feature a 36-hole cut to the top 50 players and ties, along with any players within 10 shots of the lead.
Instead, I’ll pivot to a player at similar odds in Tom Hoge, who ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and has top-10 results in three of his last four starts. Against the likes of Glover and Adam Svensson in the same range, Hoge owns some value, as he also does in the top-20 market and DFS.
Also Receiving Votes
Other players who should provide value
Max Homa (+1800), Justin Thomas (+2000), Cameron Young (+3500), Cam Davis (+7000), Adam Schenk (+11000), Nick Hardy (+25000)
