Sports betting, like any form of high-level gambling, is funny because the highs and lows are never more than a few deviations away from turning in the other direction.
I've talked about this quite frequently during my month-long cold streak that sticking to a plan is important in these times because chasing losses will quickly lose you your bankroll.
Anybody who sports bets and believes that you will never encounter a downswing has either 1. not been doing this long enough or 2. isn't telling the truth. This isn't some get-rich-quick scheme that possesses no risk. You get to realize that the more you stay in the space.
With the idea of picking off some value and getting things back rolling, let's see where this board sits for tomorrow and see if we can find an edge to consider in the fourth round.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open Round 4 Prediction
With four second-place finishes over the past six weeks in the outright market, we probably get our truest win equity chance in round four from our Ludvig Aberg ticket that we grabbed pre-event at 18/1.
Aberg will carry a two-shot lead into the day, but it is hard to stomach some of the prices books are making you pay if you did want exposure to him on Sunday. I've seen this stretch as high as -165 if you are just grabbing the first price you see. Even if you are number-shopping for the best of the ticket, it is hard to find anything better than -133 in the legal market (BetRivers).
These boards are always sticky with the big-name players and a little softer underneath if you believe someone can make a push in the final round. I don't know if I necessarily would go that far since it is hard to find better than a 2% win equity choice that has a long-term edge from anyone further than 13-under on the slate. However, we can consider a small addition on Robert MacIntyre (+550) if you find yourselves in a spot similar to mine.
MacIntyre is leading the event when taking actual ball-striking and adding in baseline short-game stats, which makes this 5.5/1 price enticing to consider.
I will say Aberg wins to give us our sixth outright victory in 2024, but here is how I am structuring my outright card to squeeze in a little exposure to the Scottish native.
| Pre-Event Outrights | |||
| Player | Odds | Risk | Win |
| Sahith Theegala | 50 | 0.14 | 7 |
| Alexander Bjork | 600 | 0.05 | 30 |
| Sam Stevens | 200 | 0.03 | 6 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 40 | 0.15 | 6 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 18 | 0.38 | 6.84 |
| Tom Hoge | 125 | 0.05 | 6.25 |
Adding:
Robert MacIntyre +550
Risk: 0.5 units
Win: 2.75 units
I considered going marginally more because of my edge, but we have already stretched out optimal exposure in this market and are starting to tap into too much projected win equity from Aberg.
