Ludvig Aberg takes a one-shot lead into the weekend after firing back-to-back six-under rounds to begin the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.
We'll see if he can maintain that quick start and hold off the slew of challengers beneath him on the odds board.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open Statistical Breakdown
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
In the past few weeks, we've seen the DFS market make a final push on Wednesday to follow the "sharp money." That "sharp" mover this week was Tom McKibbin, who ended up skyrocketing to nearly 20% owned in some DraftKings contests.
McKibbon's off-the-tee data was quite impressive for two days, but overcoming -4.24 shots with the irons is nearly impossible when placed 149th in the field.
I'll be interested in the buy-back spot for McKibbin at the Open.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Nicolai Hojgaard has been a putter away from finding himself in genuine contention in his past few starts. His around-the-green game still leaves a little to be desired, but the 1.87 strokes he has gained with the putter is giving us a true top-10 projected scorer who is hanging just outside that range entering the weekend.
Watch out if he manages to clean up the rest of it.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
It's interesting to see names like Aaron Rai and Rory McIlroy on this list. Both options entered the week with a lot of optimism and have gotten results that are much better than expected for their play.
Sometimes, that means regression is coming. Other times, it can mean that they survived their poor play and are still in the thick of the contest.
Strokes Gained: Putting
It may be because I am taking on Corey Conners in the FSGA semi-final round for fantasy golf, or perhaps Conners in Europe is a different putter than America? Regardless of the true answer, Conners leading the tournament in putting through two rounds was not on my bingo card as he was the 120th-ranked player in this field for Expected Putting in my model.
Players Gaining In All Four Strokes Gained Metrics
Aberg or Sahith Theegala winning would be a much-needed outcome after an extremely cold past month.
Other Players Gaining In All Three Strokes Gained Metrics (Removing Putter)
Expected Score When Given Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green
Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard – Who Made Cut
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)
Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard –
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)
