Here is where my model graded all 70 players in the field when I gave them their actual ball-striking totals and mixed in baseline short-game stats.
I will talk more about Russell Henley in a second, but the American is a sneaky outright addition at 55/1 if you want to get aggressive.
Underachievers
These are the names that have underachieved in round one. All options are going to be top-35 projected scorers on the leaderboard but landed beneath where they should have for the day.
Overachievers
I eliminated any name that should have landed inside the top-30 for round one.
***As always, pre-tournament data still matters! I wouldn't be blindly fading or playing any particular name.
Example: Ben Griffin, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im and Adam Scott all still graded well for me in my round two head-to-head totals. The right opponent makes anyone a fade candidate, but those were not names I was actively seeking to take on for Friday.
On the flip side, options like Cameron Davis, Will Zalatoris and Tom Hoge all made my shortlist of bets I wanted to feature in this article, with Byeong Hun An -115 over Will Zalatoris landing as a second bet that I made as one example.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Round 2 Matchup Bet
Russell Henley -120 over Tony Finau (DraftKings) – Also available at FanDuel
This is one of those prototypical sharp versus square bets that will see movement at both shops before the night finishes.
I don't want to include what my model says for a second because this answer goes further than the nearly four percent edge it shows between the -120 price and the proper going rate of roughly -140.
You can do this weekly without a model, but tracking the movement of pre-tournament matchups can give you a pretty good indicator of where money is entering the space. We saw a name like Russell Henley become a favorite against everyone he was matched against who was not named Corey Conners (another sharp mover), whereas Tony Finau suffered a much different week of head-to-head options after shifting to an underdog in most spots.
I am not saying any of that is necessarily right or wrong, but it's noteworthy when shops build an excuse for a high-end golfer like Finau, who ranked as the 26th expected performer for me pre-event and generated a projected score on the leaderboard on day one that should have had him 64th out of 70 players.
Finau's 28th-place result on the leaderboard after Thursday doesn't contradict my general expectations for him this week since that is just about where I had him projected to finish for the week. However, it does generate a deviation in expectation when it is accompanied by one of the tournament-leading overachievements when comparing him to the entire field.
Here is how Finau compares to the top projected scorers in my model after day one. You will notice Henley is every bit an underachiever after being expected to land in the top five but posted an 18th.
