The PGA Tour visits Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic as Sepp Straka looks to defend his title after nearly shooting a 59 in the final round. Let's get into our 2024 John Deere Classic best bets.
Spencer Aguiar, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 156 PGA Tour golfers will clash this week at TPC Deere Run, which is a 7,289-yard, par-71 golf course designed by D.A. Weibring in 2000.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our 2024 John Deere Classic best bets and expert PGA picks.
2024 John Deere Classic Best Bets, Expert PGA Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Justin Lower Top 40 +150 (bet365)
Despite a positive trajectory in my model for upside, Justin Lower was one of the safer players for me this week after landing as one of only a handful to grade in the top 60 for all six categories that I emphasized for TPC Deere Run.
While he failed to generate a top-10 return from that data to hurt some of his upside, his floor projection made him a perfect top-40 candidate at a going rate that remains too high for his current form.
My projections have continued to be higher than the market's prices for golfers like Lower, Andrew Novak and Chandler Phillips this season.
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Matt Gannon: Ryo Hisatsune Top 10 +700 (FanDuel)
This is a perfect Ryo Hisatsune course if I’ve ever seen one. He is a golfer who plays from the fairway at a high rate and does his best work with the short irons and wedges.
His putter is always a question mark, but he does have the ability to spike. His ball-striking should elevate his floor to around 25th, and if he is putting above average, a top 10 should be in play.
The 21-year-old's best finish on Tour this season was a tie for 11th at The American Express. Both PGA West and TPC Deere Run set up for birdie-fests, and he should thrive again this week.
Hisatsune is a high-ceiling golfer who is yet to show what he is made of yet. He has a top 20 in a major this year at Valhalla, which was focused on iron play and putting, and this is surely a spot to take advantage of his skill set.
Tony Sartori: Patton Kizzie Top 20 +550 (bet365)
Believe it or not, Patton Kizzire is the second-most birdie-heavy golfer in this field. He ranks ninth on Tour this season in Birdie Average, so it should be no surprise that he has typically thrived at TPC Deere Run.
He finished in a tie for 16th here in 2022 and tied for 11th in 2021. With Kizzire’s recent impressive golf, another top-20 finish at the John Deere Classic would not be surprising. He has finished inside the top 20 in two of his past three events as he enters with momentum.
Kizzire gained 1.17 or more strokes on the field in each of those two performances, demonstrating a healthy balance of accurate ball-striking and a solid short game. His main issue is distance off the tee, but that is not really a concern for me at a course like TPC Deere Run.
2024 John Deere Classic Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Aaron Rai +2200
- Bretwisch: Sungjae Im +1500
- Gannon: Denny McCarthy +2500
- Sartori: Keith Mitchell +3500
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: J.T. Poston +3500
- Bretwisch: Beau Hossler +6000
- Gannon: Seamus Power +7000
- Sartori: Nick Dunlap +4000
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Ryo Hisatsune 66-1
- Bretwisch: Chandler Phillips 125-1
- Gannon: Andrew Novak 90-1
- Sartori: Michael Kim 110-1
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Sam Stevens +5000
- Bretwisch: Eric Cole +5000
- Sartori: Sungjae Im +1500
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Daniel Berger 80-1
- Bretwisch: Seamus Power 50-1
- Gannon: Maverick McNealy 30-1
- Sartori: Jacob Bridgeman 125-1
Your Betting Strategy for the John Deere Classic
Aguiar: TPC courses on the PGA Tour are consistent in their builds. These layouts mimic something along the lines of beautiful, made-for-television architecture that frequently accentuate birdie-fest scoring conditions, as defending champions Sepp Straka displayed last year when he shot a final-round 62 at TPC Deere Run.
That is not to say there isn't more that goes into this course than that factor, but one of the unique ways I built my model was by adding in the re-projected proximity returns for this course to the make percentage totals on putts that we have on record throughout the event's history.
To me, deviating a little in that area this week while then adding in the common viewpoints like historical TPC Scoring, Easy Scoring at its most basic level or similar architecture trends of where this track mimics other venues was a rather simplistic way for me to get unique but do so in a fashion that didn't yield quite the exact blueprint as everyone else looking at the data.
Gannon: This is a golf course that asks the same questions repeatedly; hit the ball in the fairway to set up a short iron or wedge, then roll in a 15-foot birdie putt. This is different than last week at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic where players could pull driver more often across the golf course.
TPC Deere Run has yielded an average winning score of -20.3 over the last three seasons, and this week will be another birdie-fest.
Some golfers who have been inside the top three over those seasons include Lucas Glover, Kevin Na, Ryan Moore, J.T. Poston, Brendon Todd, Alex Smalley and Adam Schenk. All of those golfers are all short hitters who pepper fairways and excel by hitting their wedges close.
This is truly a week for the plotters to get into the mix.
Sartori: TPC Deere Run hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2000, and is a par-71, 7,289-yard track designed by D.A. Weibring.
It is a relatively easy course that rewards aggressive players because the event is essentially a birdie competition every year. Therefore, I am looking for birdie-heavy golfers this week.
