Without a bail-out from Aaron Rai taking down the event on Sunday, it is going to be a very disappointing event for me in back-to-back weeks.
I don't care how great your picks are or how well you run; this is one of the reasons I always stress proper bankroll management to alleviate stretches of poor production.
It's going to happen to the best bettors or DFS players in the world. If you think anyone is hitting at unsustainable clips over any period of time, you will see that all things circle back to their baseline before long.
All we can do is continue staying the course, but I am going to switch markets in round four and talk a little DFS to give us a different look for a day. I thought it was an extremely intriguing board to find value in that sector.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 John Deere Classic Round 4 DFS
Here are all the players who should be inside the top-30 of my model but are underachieving through three rounds on the leaderboard when considering their actual ball-striking versus baseline short-game totals.
To keep these names in check, I only pulled players who were ranked in the top-30 of my head-to-head system and possessed a positive expected DraftKings value in my sheet for round four.
We talk a lot as a space of typically trying to avoid the round four leader in DFS because of the built-in ownership percentage that naturally enters the mix from their built-in starting points. However, a name like Davis Thompson has more playability than most options since we are looking at over a 50% expected win rate + an easy course that will yield birdie-making potential.
Typically, that would shift me in an entirely different direction when we talk about ease since that starting advantage gets mitigated, but I do believe it possesses the propensity to open things up when you reach the polar opposite of that answer for why the top of the board becomes more enticing.
I am going to play Thompson, Keith Mitchell, and Luke Clanton in builds on Sunday, although I prefer talking about the value range since that is where the day will be won or lost.
Carson Young (DraftKings $7,200)
I continue to like Carson Young this week despite failing to win a single bet on him. Amazingly, we are in this spot where he is landing ninth on the leaderboard but couldn't cross the finish line again on Saturday when he failed to get by Sami Valimaki.
My model thought the wager should have won by 1.5 shots when considering how both struck the ball versus their baseline short-game stats. Still, it was not to be after Valimaki overachieved by 14 spots to eclipse the American by one stroke.
Young has been consistent all week, ranking as one of only eight players in this event to not overachieve his expected place on the leaderboard by more than six spots on any given day.
Here is the entire list. Some of these names would be more playable than others, but Young, Mitchell, Svensson, Ghim and Dahmen all placed in the top 20 of my head-to-head model heading into Sunday.
Joel Dahmen (DraftKings $7,200)
These are the biggest underachievers on the leaderboard in expected scores when given baseline short-game stats versus actual results through three days.
You will notice how most of those names aren't going to carry much intrigue in different markets despite their quality play. However, Dahmen looks like a legitimate top-10 head-to-head target for Sunday if he can figure out his flat stick.
His lack of production on the leaderboard should keep his ownership minimal, and the upside is there for the American to fire the round of the day before the leaders have even teed off.
Jhonattan Vegas (DraftKings $7,400)
Vegas has quietly been good for the past handful of months. He landed as one of my favorite DFS targets as the week progressed pre-event because of that trending profile, and the past two rounds have only solidified that notion for a golfer who has combined to gain 7.59 strokes ball-striking over 36 holes.
I remain bullish that this price is too low at 7,400, making Vegas a name that will be popular because of his place on the leaderboard — rightfully so, considering the data.
