Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 John Deere Classic first-round leader picks — including our expert's three FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Silvis, Illinois.
With the Rocket Mortgage Classic in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 John Deere Classic. TPC Deere Run hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2000 in the Quad Cities area.
TPC Deere Run is a par-71, 7,289-yard track designed by D.A. Weibring. It is a relatively easy golf course that rewards aggressive players, with the event essentially serving as a birdie competition every year.
Therefore, I am looking for birdie-heavy golfers this week for my FRL bets on Thursday.
Find my 2024 John Deere Classic first-round leader picks below.
2024 John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Jordan Spieth +3500 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:29 a.m. ET
This play financially ties me to one of the tournament favorites at a much more generous payout than his outright odds of 20-1. That number is just a bit too short for my liking, regardless of how much higher Jordan Spieth's ceiling is relative to the vast majority of the field.
Spieth is a two-time winner of this event and is pretty clearly the biggest household name in this field. Yes, he has been terrible by his standard since the Masters, but his ceiling is still so much higher than 99% of the rest of this field.
The Texas Longhorn has not returned to this venue since 2015 when he won the John Deere Classic for the second time, so he is clearly using this tournament as a "get-right" week, and I expect a strong start out of the gates for one of this field's best players.
Davis Thompson +4500 (Caesars | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:27 p.m. ET
Davis Thompson enters with tons of momentum following Sunday's 68 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was the second-best round of the day. Thompson has now made the weekend in nine of his past 11 tournaments, while finishing in the top 27 in eight of those nine made cuts.
He finished ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 against a U.S. Open field, so the sky's the limit for him this week considering how much easier both the course and the competition are this week compared to that tournament. Thompson is also a birdie machine, ranking 29th on Tour in Birdie Average this season, which will bode well at the birdie-fest this week.
Jason Day +5500 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:49 p.m. ET
Jason Day's putter has been on fire while gaining strokes on the field in 12 of his past 13 tournaments. He boasts three top-10 finishes over that stretch as the Australian continues to flirt with winning.
However, I simply trust him more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday at this point. Day has played here five times in his career, making the weekend all five times while posting two top-15 finishes in the process, so course fit is not a concern.
A low-scoring event should suit Day well considering that he ranks 33rd on Tour this season in Birdie Average and ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting. He has also been a fast starter this season, ranking 18th on Tour (and eighth among in this field) in first-round scoring average.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 John Deere Classic, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Maverick McNealy Outright Winner (+3000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Keith Mitchell Outright Winner (+3000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Nick Dunlap Outright Winner (+4000 at BetMGM) – 0.3 Units
- Michael Kim Outright Winner (+11000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Jacob Bridgeman Top 10 (+900 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units
- Patton Kizzire Top 20 (+550 at bet365) – 0.23 Units
- Jordan Spieth FRL (+3500 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
- Davis Thompson FRL (+4500 at Caesars) – 0.15 Units
- Jason Day FRL (+5500 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
