The John Deere Classic is the final summer birdie-fest before the PGA Tour jumps across the pond for the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship.
Although the winning score will be similar to last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit, the style of golf will be a tad different. In Detroit, golfers pulled the driver with zero thought and tried to bomb it as far as possible. This week, there will be slightly more thought off the tee. In spots, golfers will have to club down to avoid some thicker rough or trees and focus on being in the fairway.
Once they are in position, it is open season. If golfers hit their short irons and wedges well this week, they will separate from the pack.
Here are my 2024 John Deere Classic One & Done (OAD) Picks for TPC Deere Run.
2024 John Deere Classic One & Done: OAD Picks
Sungjae Im +1600
Sungjae Im seems like the best selection near the top of the board. He makes all the sense in the world and recently posted his best approach week since Torrey Pines in 2023.
Both of Im's PGA Tour wins have come on similar club-down courses where driving distance is minimized. PGA National and TPC Summerlin are both golf courses that demand hitting fairways at a high rate and elite short-iron and wedge play.
This style of golf accentuates the South Korean's strengths, and he recently thrived in similar conditions when he tied for third in his most recent start at the Travelers Championship.
His course history will not jump off the page at TPC Deere Run since he has played this event only twice and has not finished better than a tie for 26th. Oddly enough, Im did not hit the ball well in either trip here. Nonetheless, that isn't concerning because he enters in solid ball-striking form and is justifiably the betting favorite.
I also really like how well Im has putted the ball in this event. He has averaged just over a stroke gained putting in eight rounds here. He has a very high floor and brings winning upside to your 2024 John Deere Classic One & Done pool.
Seamus Power +5000
Seamus Powel is quietly playing some really solid golf. In his last start at the Travelers Championship, he gained strokes in every category at that signature event with all of the best players on the PGA Tour at TPC River Highlands.
Power does his best work on positional golf courses and has won multiple times in these conditions. Both Keene Trace (Barbasol Championship) and Port Royal (Butterfield Bermuda Championship) ask similar questions to TPC Deere Run, and Power has won on both of those tracks.
Looking deeper into his course history, he has never missed a cut at TPC Deere Run in five trips here with some solid ball-striking results.
Power makes a ton of sense here and is more than likely available in your pool. He is a safe option to make the cut and has plenty of upside for a high finish.
Nick Dunlap +4000
The barometer for Nick Dunlap's success on the PGA Tour directly relates to the nuance of the golf course. On the tricky golf courses that require a ton of thoughts or reps to master, Dunlap has not played well. However, when on the cookie-cutter, repetitive and straightforward designs, Dunlap has thrived.
His win at The American Express came on a rotation of golf courses that provide very similar leaderboards and scores to TPC Deere Run. This is probably the least nuanced golf course Dunlap will play since his win in La Quinta.
He showed some nice form by hitting the ball very well in Detroit where he was fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and I expect Dunlap to keep up the solid golf and post one of his best finishes of the season in the Quad Cities.
