2024 John Deere Classic Picks: 5 Outright Bets for J.T. Poston & More

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run following the Rocket Mortgage Classic where Cam Davis won for the second time on the PGA Tour after both Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee made bogeys on the 72nd hole to fall out of a tie for the lead.

Our golf analysts have their 2024 John Deere Classic Picks ready for this week's PGA Tour event in Silvis, Illinois at TPC Deere Run.

Our golf betting experts have already peppered the 2024 John Deere Classic outright betting board on Monday, and they have bets for five different golfers to take down this 156-man field. With no golfers shorter than 17-1 odds to win this week, the outright betting board is wide open.

Find our favorite 2024 John Deere Classic Picks for this week's PGA Tour event below.

2024 John Deere Classic Picks

Spencer Aguiar: J.T. Poston 33-1 (FanDuel)

While several of the most recent PGA Tour tournaments haven't had the most intriguing outright betting boards, it hasn't stopped us from landing in second place four of the last five tournaments during a what-could-have-been stretch with these outrights. Nonetheless, I found a ton of intrigue on this board at what many are considering a watered-down test at the John Deere Classic.

You can get my entire betting card when you listen to Links + Locks this week here at Action Network when our tournament betting preview podcast drops late on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but I want to elaborate on J.T. Poston here since he landed as my second-best win-equity candidate at only about a quarter of a percent lower implied equity than Aaron Rai.

This is very similar to my model's output for Min Woo Lee last week as my upside projections exceeded the general viewpoint for his potential. It doesn’t mean Poston's floor isn’t a little lower than some of his counterparts (an area of my sheet that did drop him toward the bottom of my top 10).

However, Poston's first-place rank for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total for this event was much more impactful in terms of upside than any floor outcome since we are looking for win potential when placing these bets.

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Nick Bretwisch: Keith Mitchell 35-1 (bet365)

As much as I value putting at this venue, Keith Mitchell's ball-striking floor and ceiling elevate him into a category with others priced around 22-1.

If Mitchell can get anything going with the flatstick this week on rather pure bentgrass greens, he can ball-strike his way to one of the final tee times on Sunday and be heavily in the mix for the championship.

Greg Waddell: Sepp Straka 18-1 (FanDuel)

May we interest you in a defending champion, anyone? After Cam Davis won this past weekend at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the second time in four years while many of the best players on Tour were at home or on vacation in Europe, let’s dream about a similar result this week.

Sepp Straka, the winner of the 2023 John Deere Classic, has been on a tear this season as he has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last 11 events and is 17th in SG: Total this year.

His line to win outright feels longer than it should be after a few straight cold weeks where he tied for 56th at the U.S. Open and tied for 23rd at the Travelers Championship in a 71-man field. Nonetheless, Straka has been in contention more often than not on a weekly basis for the last two months.

In another wide-open field this weekend, let’s take the defending champion of the event at 18-1 and hope we can pin the first win of the season for a player who absolutely deserves one and was on 59 watch the last time he played at TPC Deere Run.

Matt Gannon: Seamus Power 70-1 (bet365)

Seamus Power weeks are fun weeks! Any golfer who has won wedge fests at Keene Trace (Barbasol Championship) and at Port Royal (Butterfield Bermuda Championship) can surely win at TPC Deere Run.

He has excellent course history around this event having never missed a cut in five trips here. The Irishman has hit the ball well often around this course and has gained strokes with his putter in all five appearances at TPC Deere Run.

Power is not far removed from one of his best approach weeks of his career at Quail Hollow where he was third in the field with his irons. In his last start at the Travelers Championship, he gained strokes in every category for just the second time this season as he was firing on all cylinders.

That is an incredibly impressive result at a signature event with the best players on Tour, and it is relevant because, like TPC Deere Run, TPC River Highlands is another short TPC golf course where golfers must excel with wedges and short irons.

Power is a winner and is having a solid season. At 70-1 in this field, he was an easy first click for me!

Tony Sartori: Maverick McNealy 30-1 (FanDuel)

I bet Maverick McNealy at the same price at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, and although we didn’t get to the window with him, I believe the value is still there this week against an even weaker field.

McNealy has been playing great golf recently while finishing 23rd at the PGA Championship, 17th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, seventh at the RBC Canadian Open and 44th at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

He has not lost strokes to the field in 13 consecutive tournaments with ShotLink data available. With five top-17 finishes over that stretch, McNealy continues to knock on the door of his first Tour victory, and TPC Deere Run should set up nicely for him to do just that.

TPC Deere Run is a course that rewards aggressive players due to the tournament basically being a birdie competition every year. That is why McNealy should succeed here, given that he ranks 14th on Tour, and fourth in this field, in Birdie Average this season.

He finished eighth here in his last appearance in 2022, and he is a much more well-rounded golfer now than he was back then.