2024 John Deere Classic Course Preview: TPC Deere Run
We are in a bit of a lull in the PGA Tour schedule between the U.S. Open and The Open Championship, so we are seeing a lot of weaker fields and birdie-fests.
This week's John Deere Classic is always held at TPC Deere Run, which is actually one of my favorite easy courses in the PGA Tour rotation. It’s a Par-71 that measures 7,289 yards, and the winning score has been at least 21-under par four of the last five years.
In terms of overall difficulty, it has ranked 34th or lower in each of the last five years. Make no mistake about it; there will be a lot of birdies on the scorecard this week.
The course doesn’t favor any particular type of golfer because both bombers and plodders have contended here. The fairways are fairly wide at 35 yards and easy to hit with a 64% driving accuracy. The greens are small at an average of 5,500 square feet, but they are also easy to hit with a 72% greens in regulation percentage.
Given the lack of length on the course, there are a myriad of wedge shots hit here each year. In 2023, nearly 45% of approach shots came from within 150 yards. There are also a decent amount of long-iron shots, with 25% of approach shots expected from over 200 yards.
While making birdies is usually the name of the game in these low-scoring affairs, the name of the game this week is avoiding bogeys. Most golfers in the field should put circles on their scorecards, but those who can avoid mistakes will find their way to the top of the leaderboard.
My four favorite statistics to target this week are Total Driving, Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and Bogey Avoidance.
Find my 2024 John Deere Classic Predictions below.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week +/-: $-100
- Current bankroll: $486
2024 John Deere Classic Predictions
Maverick McNealy
Outright +2800 (DraftKings) | Top 5 +650 (Caesars)
$10 to pay $290 | $10 to pay $75
McNealy was on the betting card last week, and once again, he got off to an extremely slow start on Thursday. He managed to battle back on Friday to make the cut but was well out of contention heading into the weekend.
I’m still encouraged by him gaining at least 1.6 strokes on approach in four of his last six events. He routinely gains off the tee, he has a strong short game, and he has gained over four strokes putting in three of his last 10 outings. Spike weeks with the putter are often needed to win events on the PGA Tour, especially when the winning score is in the 20-under-par range.
McNealy has played here twice and has tied for eighth and 18th, so he clearly knows his way around the golf course.
J.T. Poston
Outright +3500 (FanDuel) | Top 5 +800 (BetRivers)
$10 to pay $360 | $10 to pay $90
Cam Davis has now won the Rocket Mortgage Classic two times in the last four years, so I’m hoping Poston can do the same.
He’s one of the best in the field in Strokes Gained: Easy Courses, and he went wire-to-wire at this event in 2022. In his title defense last year, he finished in a tie for sixth.
Poston is one of a handful of golfers in this field who gains strokes in all four facets of the game – he’s a strong total driver, he’s above-average with his irons, and he has an elite short game.
His recent iron play leaves much to be desired, but I’m hoping a return to one of his favorite courses can help on that front.
Ben Griffin
Outright +7000 (Caesars) | Top 10 +625 (FanDuel)
$10 to pay $710 | $10 to pay $73
Griffin has had an up-and-down 2024 campaign, but he nearly won last month at the RBC Canadian Open when he gained seven strokes on approach and finished in a tie for second.
Over the last three months, he’s been gaining a ton of strokes on approach and with his putter. That combination plays well on easy courses like TPC Deere Run. Perhaps this is why he’s fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Easy Courses over the last two years.
The only knock on Griffin is that he’s never played this event, but he should find the course to his liking, and his odds are awfully enticing this week.
Nate Lashley
Top 40 +163 (BetRivers)
$40 to pay $105
My biggest bet of the week is on Lashley to finish in the top 40. He has generous odds at +163 for a golfer who rates out as the 19th-best golfer in my model.
He has a lot of missed cuts on his resume this year, but almost all of them have been by just one or two strokes as he’s had some bad luck with the cut line.
Lashley has tied for 42nd or better in 10 straight events where he has made the cut, which means he often moves up the leaderboard on the weekend.
He’s a strong fit for TPC Deere Run and has finished in the top 30 here in two of the last three years.
