2024 John Deere Classic Round 3 Pick: Model Pick and Projections

After four second-place finishes for my outright picks in the past five events, we are back with another shot in that market at the John Deere Classic, with Aaron Rai holding a share of the lead after two rounds.

There are some concerns about how he is producing those results after gaining 7.85 shots with his putter, but Rai is still landing as one of 21 players in this field who has gained strokes in all four critical areas.

Here is a list of everyone who is accomplishing that feat:

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

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2024 John Deere Classic

Carson Young (-115) Over Sami Valimaki (DraftKings)

There are typically two spots where my model is trying to find an edge as we enter the third round of an in-tournament market.

1. It is trying to take on the overachiever who has far surpassed his expectations due to an unsustainable short-game return.
2. It is trying to find the golfer who has received too significant of a boost in the market from his quality play over the opening two days.

I realize that those are vastly different concepts. In reality, I prefer option one since fading the performances that can't be as easily maintained is the route that presents the most significant edge. However, with very little value on this board to consider in round three, I will go with the market overcorrection stance and try to take on a golfer in Sami Valimaki, who has performed extremely admirably so far this tournament. 

My numbers didn't like Valimaki entering the week due to his ice-cold form, which saw him place 115th when diving into 'Expected Weighted Scoring' inside my sheet. While I don't believe it is shocking that he found success after ranking inside the top-50 of my model for Projected Total Driving and Anticipated Ball-Striking for TPC Deere Run, the more significant viewpoint for me has stemmed from him getting matched against one of the savvy sharp movers pre-event in Carson Young.

Ice-cold form always has the propensity to turn around, something I need after a cold few weeks myself in the matchup market, but there is about a 14-point edge on this matchup inside of my model. I had the proper price at -129 (56.33% implied win probability versus a listed price of 53.49% at DraftKings).

Everyone who follows me will know how much a three percent (or higher) edge means to me when providing a play for someone to consider, but I am going to have to marginally break that rule here to get the bet off for Saturday.