With time running out before the final major championship of the season, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic.
This tournament has been a staple on Tour in the Quad Cities since 1999, and the field is headlined by Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day alongside a pretty wide open field.
This event has been synonymous with longshot winners in recent years, with Lucas Glover, Michael Kim and Dylan Fritelli each winning since 2018 at 60-1 odds or longer.
TPC Deere Run provides a simple formula for success: accuracy off the tee followed by quality approach shots and making birdie putts.
The course has produced the most birdies on the PGA Tour of any course going all the way back to 2000, so putting will be key on these pure bentgrass greens for golfers to capitalize on the myriad short irons and wedges from 175 yards and in.
With tree-lined fairways and an increased missed-fairway penalty compared to the Tour average, driving accuracy will be at more of a premium than driving distance this week.
Let's take a look at my 2024 John Deere Classic Sleeper Picks & Longshots below who have a chance to cash at 80-1 odds or longer.
2024 John Deere Classic Longshots & Sleeper Picks
Joel Dahmen 80-1 (bet365)
Joel Dahmen has had a rocky season with only one top-10 finish in 17 appearances, but maybe this could be his week because he enters with momentum after making seven straight cuts. Two of his three best results of the year have come in his two most recent starts when he tied for 10th at the RBC Canadian Open and tied for 25th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Dahmen fits the mold of our formula because he is accurate off the tee and strong with his irons. The Washington Husky ranks 37th in Strokes Gained (SG): Off the Tee, 19th in SG: Approach the Green and leads the Tour in Proximity to the Hole.
His putter isn't usually an asset, but it has shown flashes of upside by gaining over four strokes per tournament in two of his last four starts. If he can pair a hot putter with his strong ball-striking, Dahmen can capitalize this week on a strong course fit where his below-average driving distance is mitigated.
Patton Kizzire 120-1 (FanDuel)
Patton Kizzire missed six straight cuts just a few months ago but has silently been on a tear. He has finished in a tie for 28th or better in five of his last six events, most recently a tie for 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.
Kizzire has much stronger recent results compared to many of the golfers at his 120-1 odds, and he ranks highly in several key statistics for TPC Deere Run. He is eighth on Tour in SG: Approach the Green, an identical eighth in Proximity and fourth in Greens in Regulation %, so he should have no problem generating birdie looks and adding to his Birdie Average that ranks ninth.
He is also a great birdie-maker on Par 4s and ranks third in Par-4 Scoring this season.
The two-time PGA Tour winner is a sneaky play to win at 120-1 this week.
Bud Cauley 140-1 (bet365)
Our final longshot this week is someone whom many golf fans have forgotten about over the last few years.
34-year-old Bud Cauley has been all over the place recently after recovering for multiple years from a horrific car accident in 2018.
However, he has shown some quality form this year, including a tie for 21st at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Last week, he gained 2.5 strokes around the green and putting, which is notable coming into a notoriously pure putting track.
Over Cauley’s last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in SG: Approach because he has thrived from 175 yards and in.
Most importantly, Cauley loves TPC Deere Run. He finished in the top 20 in each of his last three appearances in 2016, 2017 and 2019 at this event.
Given his course history, hot short game and strong approach prowess, Cauley is a worthy longshot attempt at 140-1 odds
