2024 KPMG Women's PGA Championship Betting Preview
The KPMG Women’s PGA Championship makes its much-anticipated return to Sahalee Country Club in Sammamish, Washington for the first time in eight years.
Sahalee Country Club, which is 35-minutes east of downtown Seattle, is known for being very narrow with a plethora of trees and bunkers.
Brooke Henderson won the last time the event was hosted here in 2016 as a 19-year-old! Ruoning Yin is the reigning PGA Championship winner from last year at Baltusrol Golf Club.
There are a few notable storylines entering this week among the top golfers.
Nelly Korda's outright odds (+800) have nearly tripled since the last major because she missed the cut at the U.S. Women's Open, but that was really the product of a single hole — the 10 she posted on the par-3 12th hole at Lancaster Country Club. However, she did miss the cut in her next start as well at the Meijer LPGA Classic and hasn't played since then.
Recent form is queen in golf, but can she get it together to win her second major of the year this week?
Rose Zhang at +2800 is also priced at nearly three times the odds she was for the last major, but is this the right time to buy on the Stanford product?
Lilia Vu returned last week and hit the ground running with a win. She won two majors last year and looks to pair her momentum with her past major success. However, I'm slightly nervous about her hitting a wall in the second consecutive week of competition after returning from injury.
Similarly, Angel Yin returned a week before the Chevron Championship earlier this season and tied for fifth in her first tournament of the season, but she had to withdraw the following week at the Chevron as her back flared up. Hopefully Vu is in a better spot, but I'm wary of backing her this week and am fading her in a matchup.
Find my 2024 KPMG Women's PGA Championship Picks below.
2024 KPMG Women's PGA Championship Picks
Ayaka Furue
Top 10 +245 (BetRivers) | To Win Outright +1800 (BetMGM)
Furue enters with momentum following top-eight finishes in each of her last four starts, including a tie for sixth at the U.S. Women's Open. While Nelly Korda has the most wins so far this season on the LPGA, Furue leads the tour in top-10 finishes with eight, which is one more than Korda and three clear of all the other women.
She hasn't strayed too far from the first page of the leaderboard with just one result outside of the top 30 in 14 starts this season. She has also made every cut at the majors over the past two seasons, which includes three top-10 finishes.
She isn't among the longest on the LPGA, but she ranks fourth in Driving Accuracy as she has hit a ridiculous 85.4% of fairways this year. She has capitalized from there by hitting over 71% of Greens in Regulation, which ranks 16th on the LPGA. Hitting fairways will be key this week to set up birdie opportunities in the narrow confines at Sahalee.
View from behind the 10th tee at Sahalee. Even more narrow that it looks. pic.twitter.com/3HGXNMorXX
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 19, 2024
Atthaya Thitikul
Top 10 +160 (BetRivers)
21-year-old Atthaya Thitikul is deservingly considered the second-best golfer in the world behind Nelly Korda.
Thitikul has done this by consistently posting top-10 finishes as she has top 10s in four of her six starts this season, along with a 12th-place finish. She has picked up where she left off in recent years after posting 13 top 10s in 20 starts last year and 16 top 10s in 25 starts in 2022.
Not only has she excelled on the LPGA, but her game has also translated to the biggest stages as she has seven top 10s in her 14 career major championship starts.
Unlike Furue, she is more long than accurate off the tee, but Thitikul also leads the LPGA in Greens in Regulation at 75.13% and is second in Scoring Average this season behind only Nelly Korda.
Allisen Corpuz
To Win Without Atthaya Thitikul, Nelly Korda, Ayaka Furue & Lilia Vu +5500 (FanDuel)
Top 10 +650 (BetRivers) | Top 20 +295 (BetRivers)
Corpuz thrived in the majors last season with three top-six finishes, including her win at the U.S. Women's Open. While she has struggled at times this year, including a T57 and a missed cut in the two majors so far, her best result came just last week when she tied for fifth at the Meijer LPGA Classic.
Given her recent momentum and that she is the most accurate driver on the LPGA at over 86% of fairways hit, this is a great buy-low spot on Corpuz because of her major championship pedigree.
Megan Khang
To Win Outright +4000 (Caesars)
Khang enters fresh off of her best result of the season when she tied for second at the ShopRite LPGA Classic. She has been the best LPGA golfer in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green this year — yes, even better than Nelly Korda — but just needs the putter to cooperate to take advantage of her incredible win equity.
Because of the faulty flatstick, she is a high risk/reward golfer, so I am betting her in the outright market at 40-1.
Alexa Pano
To Win Outright 400-1 (FanDuel) | Top 10 +2200 (BetRivers) | Top 20 +800 (BetRivers)
Pano is one of my favorite golfers to bet regularly on the LPGA, and I'm playing the full longshot escalator on the 19-year-old with an outright, top 10 and a top 20 this week. She already has a win on the LPGA and another runner-up finish but hasn't quite cracked the top 50 in a major championship yet — although her time is coming soon.
She has an incredibly high ceiling if her putter gets hot as she ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the LPGA among regulars. She also enters off of a strong last result when she tied for 17th last weekend.
Yue Ren
Top 20 +1400 (BetRivers)
Ren is a fun but mispriced longshot whom I'm willing to invest in at +1400 for a top-20 finish this week because of her ball-striking. She has a small sample size in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green this year, but the returns have been impressive as she sits between Minjee Lee and Atthaya Thitikul.
She put on a ball-striking display two weeks ago at the Shoprite when she tied for 12th despite losing several strokes with her putter. I like her in the top-20 market because if her putter cooperates, she can definitely cash this, and there may even be some pathways to a top-20 without her putter being an asset because of her tee-to-green play.
Yu Jin Sung
Top 10 +1600 | Top 20 +330 (BetRivers)
Sung has quietly had a really strong season and is in her best form right now following her best result of the season with a tie for 12th last week. She also had her third-best result of the year two weeks ago when she tied for 27th at the ShopRite LPGA Classic, and I like her chances as a longshot in the top-10 (+1600) and top-20 (+330) markets.
She sneakily ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green this season among regular LPGA golfers.
Narin An
Top 10 +625 | Top 20 +270 (BetRivers)
An has been solid this season as she ranks eighth among regular LPGA players in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. She enters with elite form after finishing in the top six in each of her last two starts at the Meijer LPGA Classic and ShopRite LPGA Classic.
Andrea Lee
Top 10 +600 (BetRivers)
25-year-old Stanford alum Andrea Lee has been trending over the last three majors as she tied for third at the U.S. Women's Open, tied for 17th at the Chevron Championship and tied for ninth at the Women's British Open.
I like her chances to continue that major success and make it a third top-10 finish in her last four majors this week. While she is one of the shortest hitters on the LPGA, she makes up for it with her Driving Accuracy that ranks 10th at 82.39%.
KPMG Women's PGA Championship Matchup Bets
- Narin An over Jenny Shin -120 (Caesars)
- Ayaka Furue over Lilia Vu -127 (BetRivers)
- Rose Zhang over Jin Young Ko -127 (BetRivers)
