The PGA Tour visits Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament as Viktor Hovland looks to defend his crown after taking down Denny McCarthy in a playoff last year. Let's get into our 2024 Memorial Tournament best bets.
Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 72 golfers will clash this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
The course is a 7,569-yard par-72 designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1974 and renovated in 2020 by Nicklaus.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our 2024 Memorial Tournament best bets and expert picks for the weekend.
2024 Memorial Tournament Best Bets, Expert Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im -120 Over Jason Day (DraftKings)
The market always seems to overcorrect itself with Jason Day in this spot at Muirfield Village since it is his home course. I have never understood that factor since Day has not only been bad here historically but has also been on record that he never plays the course in his free time.
We see all that front and center when diving into a golfer who has averaged losing 2.85 shots approach at this course in his last 12 appearances, highlighted further by a return that has seen him drop strokes 11 of those events, including 10 of those appearances where he has lost over two shots to the field.
Day's recent approach metrics in 2024 aren't yielding anything much better over his last seven starts, including losing shots with his irons six of seven times for an average loss of 2.64 shots since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.
All of that feels like a foreboding combination when looking into two golfers who are heading in different directions after Im has earned 1.16 shots on average with his irons during his past three events.
Nick Bretwisch: Justin Thomas Top 10 +345 (Circa)
I’m all over Justin Thomas again this week since I’ve been a proponent of his all season long.
The ball-striking is in elite form, and we know the around the green game is going to be among the top 10 on a weekly basis. If we can get a neutral-to-positive weekend on the greens, the Tee-to-Green upside is there for him to make a major run at Muirfield Village.
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Matt Gannon: Max Homa Top 20 +140 (FanDuel)
Homa is coming off an ugly display in his last start at Colonial. What he did from tee to green was unforgivable, but I am willing to run him back!
We just saw Bobby Mac play poorly at Colonial and bounce back to win in his next start at the Canadian Open. Similarly, Homa should be excited for a very different challenge this week at Muirfield Village because he been excellent at this event, and his back-to-back top-six finishes are no fluke.
When Homa is at his best, he is flushing the ball off the tee and excelling with his long irons. Any golfer who has won at Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines surely checks those boxes. Course history is very sticky here, as shown by other elite ball-strikers like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay consistently playing well at Muirfield Village.
Look for Homa to be the next golfer who establishes regular success at Jack’s place.
Tony Sartori: Keegan Bradley Top 5 +1100 (DraftKings)
Keegan Bradley enters this week in fantastic form after making the weekend in five consecutive tournaments. He is fresh off a second-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and I think another top-five finish could be in store this week.
Bradley has gained strokes on the field in three consecutive tournaments as his game has been impressive all around. His putter was on fire at the Charles Schwab Challenge, his approach game has been great all season, and he is currently bombing his driver off the tee while maintaining accuracy.
The American is rounding into form at the right time as we start to near the Presidents Cup, and he is currently 10th on the United States Team points list. We know how much Bradley wants to be a part of that team, and I expect him to continue to play his way into a nomination to play at Royal Montreal.
2024 Memorial Tournament Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Collin Morikawa 16-1
- Bretwisch: Collin Morikawa 16-1
- Gannon: Ludvig Åberg 25-1
- Sartori: Scottie Scheffler +390
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Tony Finau 66-1
- Bretwisch: Justin Thomas 33-1
- Gannon: Will Zalatoris 70-1
- Sartori: Russell Henley 50-1
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Lucas Glover 125-1
- Bretwisch: Keegan Bradley 80-1
- Gannon: Stephan Jaeger 125-1
- Sartori: Denny McCarthy 80-1
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Will Zalatoris 70-1
- Bretwisch: Wyndham Clark 50-1
- Gannon: Collin Morikawa 16-1
- Sartori: Xander Schauffele +900
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Kurt Kitayama 110-1
- Bretwisch: Jordan Spieth 63-1
- Gannon: Jordan Spieth 55-1
- Sartori: Shane Lowry 75-1
Your Betting Strategy for the Memorial Tournament
Aguiar: I've always thought that Jack Nicklaus has been incredibly protective of Muirfield Village in the past after diving into some of his reconstructions that have kept the course a dynamic challenge each year.
One of the most fascinating shifts in player performance indicators post-renovation is the switch in Driving Accuracy and GIR percentage. While Driving Accuracy has become more manageable during all four recent iterations, the field's GIR percentage has dropped significantly.
That is a unique combination since it highlights a few critical factors that may have been the missing link that we weren't getting off the tee before these changes.
Gannon: Muirfield Village is of the toughest designs on an annual basis on the PGA Tour because it truly rewards elite ball-striking. All the green you see on your favorite players DataGolf profile will turn into solid results here.
Long and straight off the tee is a priority, and if golfers are missing fairways at a high rate, they will have no chance into these greens. It is not because they are overly firm; it is because the rough is an actual issue.
From there, golfers must be elite with their mid to long irons. This event has been won at single digits recently, but I believe the golfers will push it a little bit lower this week. The golf course is softer than normal, which will allow more players to hit greens and lead to more birdies.
Sartori: Muirfield Village is a Jack Nicklaus design that typically plays extremely challenging, which is why many of the previous winners have been toward the top of the world rankings at the time of winning. Due to its difficulty, scrambling is the biggest predictor of success at this venue.
Last year, five of the top-six finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in scrambling percentage, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred. Recent form is also important, given that each of the past eight winners posted at least one top-11 finish over their previous five tournaments.
All eight of those winners also had at least one top-47 finish over their previous two appearances at Muirfield Village prior to winning.
