We have a fun two-week stretch coming up on the PGA Tour with the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s place this week and then the U.S. Open next week.
Find my 2024 Memorial Tournament Predictions below.
2024 Memorial Tournament Preview
Muirfield Village Golf Club hosts this week and is one of the most difficult courses on Tour. Since the renovation three years ago, this has played as the fifth, eighth and 10th most difficult course of the season, including the majors.
While Jack Nicklaus likes his courses to play firm and fast, this is still an extremely long golf course as a par-72 measuring 7,569 yards. Add in thick four-inch rough, tree-lined fairways, difficult bunkering, small greens and water on 13 holes, and it’s easy to see why this course is so challenging every year.
As is the case with most Nicklaus designs, this is a second-shot golf course. The greens are small and tiered, so precise iron play is needed to score at Muirfield Village. Golfers only hit 52% of greens in regulation in 2023, so scrambling will play a key role as well.
There’s thick rough around the greens, so golfers won’t have the tricky tight lies that they are accustomed to. Golfers will still need to get up and down often, but there’s less creativity required around the green.
Generally, the more difficult the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes. That has played out over and over again at this event over the years. Elite ball-strikers who are competent around the green have had a lot of success at this event. Course history has also been a strong indicator of success, so targeting golfers who have played well here in the past makes a lot of sense.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$59
- Current bankroll: $331
2024 Memorial Tournament Predictions
Patrick Cantlay
To Win +2500 (DraftKings) | Top 10 +225 (DraftKings)
$20 to Pay $520 | $20 to Pay $65
Cantlay has not had a great season by his standards, but he has yet to miss a cut this year and quietly has three top-11 finishes. The two events where he contended, the RBC Heritage and The Genesis Invitational, were events where he plays well every year.
His game hasn’t been perfect, but he has played his best at his happy places. I would argue that Muirfield Village might be his absolute best course, as he’s won here twice (2019 and 2021) and has two other top-four finishes.
His tie for 53rd at the PGA Championship doesn’t look like much on paper, but he gained strokes Off the Tee, on Approach, and Around the Green. I’m double-dipping with Cantlay this week and am betting him to win at +2500 and finish in the top 10 at +225 at DraftKings.
Russell Henley
Top 10 +375 (bet365)
$20 to Pay $95
While I don’t know if Russell Henley has the distance to win this week, he ranks as the fifth-best golfer in the field in my model. His accuracy off the tee should help because the fairways should be firm, and the rough will be challenging.
He’s one of the best iron players in the field and is quietly among the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 12 months. His form also isn't a concern because he’s finished in the top 25 in six of his last nine starts, including three top 10s during that stretch.
I like his chances of finishing in the top 10 again in this small field.
Si Woo Kim
Top 10 +375 (bet365)
$20 to Pay $95
I’m contemplating Si Woo Kim as an outright bet this week, but we’ll stick with the top 10.
Kim has surprisingly gained strokes Off the Tee in 31 of his last 32 events and has gained strokes on Approach in 12 of his last 13 events.
He’s also underrated Around the Green as he ranks 15th in this field over the last 12 months. The putter has held him back often this year, but again, the tougher the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes.
It’s also important to note that he has finished in the top 20 at this event in each of the last four years.
Denny McCarthy
Top 20 +180 (DraftKings)
$20 to Pay $56
McCarthy nearly won this event last year when he lost in a playoff to Viktor Hovland. He also has another high finish here in 2022 with a tie for fifth, so last year wasn't an anomaly. He’s accurate off the tee and has one of the best short games on Tour. However, his iron play ultimately decides his ceiling each week.
While that’s the most inconsistent part of his game, he’s shown that he’s capable of gaining strokes on approach. Given that he loves this course and difficult courses in general, I like the top-20 bet at +180 on DraftKings.
Good luck this week!
