Jack Nicklaus has been incredibly protective of Muirfield Village with his renovations keeping the course a dynamic challenge annually for the Memorial Tournament.
I don't know if we have always gotten that return pre-Patrick Cantlay's win in 2019 when he reached 19-under par to capture the title, but if the course may have started to resemble a "pitch-and-scramble" that was too straightforward before that victory, Nicklaus quickly nipped that sentiment by adding 150 yards while also creating new green complexes that yield extremely sinister results with four-inch thick rough that surrounds this layout from tee to green.
One of the most fascinating shifts in player performance indicators post-renovation is the switch in Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage. While accuracy has become more manageable during all four recent iterations, the field's GIR percentage has dropped significantly.
Golfers now have the opportunity to achieve high-end upside if they steer clear of the rough, a factor that benefits golfers with both distance and accuracy off the tee.
Muirfield Village also features lightning-quick Bentgrass greens that are small in stature and add to the difficulty since the thick rough around the putting surface will emphasize approach play more than usual. That is one of the reasons for the decline in GIR projection over the last four seasons.
I've talked a lot this week about Muirfield Village not necessarily being a perfect course from top to bottom, but it will be nice to see a venue that is put in place to challenge the field, with Nicklaus front and center pulling the strings to fight back against some of these more accessible tests we have gotten so far in 2024.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Memorial Tournament Round 1 Data-Driven Pick
Round 1 Matchup Pick
Sepp Straka -115 Over Jason Day (bet365)
No amount of Jason Day booty short pictures will get me to change my stance on him this week at Muirfield Village.
Malbon got so sick of the complaints about Jason Day’s pants that they stopped having him wear them entirely pic.twitter.com/XpVBX8Diht
— claire rogers (@kclairerogers) June 5, 2024
I mentioned this on Action Network during my Links + Locks Memorial Tournament Betting Preview podcast yesterday (linked below), but the betting market always seems to overcorrect itself with Day in this spot at Muirfield Village since it is his home course. I find it challenging to understand since Day has played poorly here historically and has been on record as someone who rarely plays the venue in his free time.
When we dive into the numbers, we see a clear pattern: Day has consistently underperformed at Muirfield Village by losing strokes to the field in 11 of his 12 starts, with an average deficit of 2.85 shots per outing.
That is a large enough sample size that we can clearly extrapolate the data further to realize there is a statistical issue coming into play at Muirfield. I might be more willing to forgive some of that factor if the rest of the profile was stout with the critical areas of his game.
However, it just further expands this poor iron production throughout 2024, as he has lost strokes with his irons in six of his last seven starts, producing an average loss of 2.64 shots since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.
I don't believe Day getting a late tee time on Thursday does what it once may have years ago for his health, and the projected increase in wind only further augments the approach issue when you realize he slips to 70th in this field for Projected Proximity in Windy Conditions.
It doesn't hurt matters that my model found itself bullishly optimistic on Sepp Straka's potential this week, making this a wager that I am willing to lay a little juice on to try and take on this market overcorrection from Day that seems to be taking place because of the home-course narrative that has him rolling out of bed and onto the course into what may be his boxers.
