I want to give everyone a quick peek into my model to see the actual top of the leaderboard and where my math has the field when taking their ball-striking metrics and merging it with a two-year baseline expectation. That is a critical comparison because it starts to highlight where players are producing in the more sustainable categories and where there may be regression due to hit.
Actual Leaderboard
Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green Leaderboard
We see some of those answers front and center when diving into golfers like Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and Christiaan Beuzidenhout, who all landed outside the top 25 of the leaderboard but inside the top 15 of the projected board (Baseline Putt + ATG Score or Rank) when taking their baseline short-game metrics.
Of course, that return will also need the pre-tournament data to work if we want to make those options playable commodities. Nonetheless, all three were examples that my model believed were among the top 20 options on the board tomorrow if you are looking solely for DFS routes to consider.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Memorial Tournament Round 2 Predictions
Billy Horschel -120 over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings)
I wouldn't say this is a spot where my model is overly loving Billy Horschel since I have been pretty similar to market value on him so far this week. However, as noted in the 'Best Bets' article at Action Network, Will Zalatoris is one of my favorite fade candidates that we can find at the Memorial.
Shoutout to Nick's call on Wyndham Clark also since he landed as my most overpriced player at the Memorial.
After each round, I slowly infuse my data into the mix to avoid overcorrecting one-off returns. If I didn't do that and took everything at face value, Zalatoris would be the fade of all fades when only taking his statistics on day one after dropping 4.25 strokes with his ball-striking. The short-game metrics did salvage an otherwise putrid day of golf, but none of that can change the fact that he graded as one of the most significant overachievers on the board after landing 72nd out of 73 players for 'Anticipated Baseline Putting + Around The Green Score.'
As I said, I wouldn't necessarily be as bearish to that news if I didn't have Zalatoris as such an inferior negative value to the market pre-event, but I think we get a spot here where bettors continue to give the American way too much credit since returning from his serious back injury.
Zalatoris ranked 69th in my model before the event for Projected Proximity + Around the Green, 46th for Weighted Scoring and 63rd for Weighted Strokes Gained Total.
Pre-Event Overvalued Plays
Round 2 H2H Ranks
