We will lose some casual fans here at the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta since most of the field looks to be auto-generated from Tiger Woods' old-school video game.
Nonetheless, we may look back fondly at this tournament in a few years when names like Nicolai Højgaard and Ryo Hisatsune emerge as premier talents on Tour, but the initial field has the least talent of any other event so far this season.
For someone like me, I prefer events like this because bettors can get down to the nitty-gritty of golf research. Not having the built-in win equity up top typically generates a better betting board. It doesn't mean it always leads to more profit, but let's talk a little about this field and where the money has entered so far this week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Mexico Open at Vidanta Tournament Preview podcast.
2024 Mexico Open Biggest Market Movers
From what I can gather from betting splits in various portions of the market and where notable money has entered the space, we look to have a split return of sharp versus square money.
That is a prototypical answer when diving into movement. Not every shift stems from big money wagers moving the price. I am always going to trust my model and the math to find value. Still, there is a reason I run a model on Wednesday to include noteworthy movement to account for some of these deviations.
The sharpest mover in the space, without a doubt, has been Sam Stevens. I touched on Stevens' upside potential during this week's Green Dot Daily segment with Maria Marino.
My model thought 52-1 was the proper going rate, so there may still be meat left on this bone for those looking for a mid-range flier. Stevens' ability to produce distance and long-iron proximity is a real weapon for a course that may play even longer than usual because of the soft conditions.
I don't know if Robert MacIntyre, Matti Schmid or Kevin Dougherty have enough upside to win. However, my model did see similar positive trajectory trends when running data for them this week. I prefer the trio as longshot placement wagers while avoiding their lower floors in safer markets, but I do believe their movement has come from influential money.
My model likes Carson Young, but the market as a whole does not. Young is landing as a massive underdog in matchups against the likes of Chris Gotterup. Gotterup has experienced his fair share of sharp movement at a few books I respect. Still, I worry a little when my model finds a negative upside trajectory, with the market moving massively against the public.
We see that a second time with his outright price consistently landing higher at the sharper shops than the square ones. I am not entirely out on Gotterup, but those answers would be enough for me not to bet on him as an outright wager.
I believe bettors have gotten it right by moving Nicolai Højgaard's price from 18-1 to 16-1 over the last 48 hours.
My math placed Højgaard behind only Stephan Jaeger and Tony Finau when combining Weighted Scoring and Ball-striking. Mix that with the upside over the last 24 rounds when you look at his matchups, and you get a golfer trending in all the right areas.
Finau may be the favorite, but Højgaard is equally talented and has a putter that isn't broken.
2024 Mexico Open Outright Picks
Ryo Hisatsune 55-1 (FanDuel)
While I am marginally surprised to see Hisatsune drift in price over the last 48 hours, it shouldn't be a massive shock because of our limited data on him.
You either believe in the talent of the 21-year-old, or you are in wait-and-see mode. I am okay jumping in early and hoping that one of the three Wednesday special invitees to the Masters demonstrates his long-term upside here in Mexico.
Sam Stevens 60-1 (BetMGM)
Once again, there is a reason Stevens's outright price has moved from 90-1 to 60-1 in the last 48 hours.
Stevens' top-10 projected win equity return in my model is indicative of a golfer who didn't get adequately priced to open the week. We are closer to the proper price now, but there is still some value when you shop around.
Nate Lashley 100-1 (FanDuel)
Nate Lashley has one of the most significant boom-or-bust profiles in this field.
He has missed four of five cuts since November (along with a tie for third at Torrey Pines), but his upside randomly pops into the equation to make this worth a flier in the outright market.
I would strongly avoid him in DFS cash-game builds, head-to-head bets or top-40 wagers, but volatile markets like outright tickets or high-end placement returns are certainly in play because of his top-10 grades for Weighted Scoring and Weighted Proximity.
Parker Coody 140-1 (bet365)
I don't have much data in this spot, but Vidanta Vallarta profiles as a ball-striking course that reduces putting returns, which should help Parker Coody.
I’ve been saying for weeks now that these boards crumble fast when we reach a certain point. You can blame some of that on LIV Golf removing depth from the field, but there is an opportunity for one of these rookies to break out in a big way.
Roberto Argüello said it best on Links + Locks that while we may not have enough information to feel super confident in any assessment based on this season's proximity returns, we can still find ball/club speeds to get a better idea of what is factual. I'll take a shot here since the limited data is matching the speed answer.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model
There is no surprise with those two options. My only gripe is that I would say Højgaard should be closer in price to Finau than his current price.
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
All four of my pre-tournament outright bets are still a value on Wednesday afternoon.
I strongly considered options like MJ Daffue and Joseph Bramlett if I were to add another longshot wager. However, I tend to land under this mindset that Højgaard shows his class and wins the title.
I am having trouble getting there at these 16-1 prices since I had 15.5-1 as proper, but I am keeping a few bullets in the holster to potentially add him after things start on Thursday.
