Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta first-round leader picks — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event at the Norman Course at Vidanta Vallarta.
With The Genesis Invitational in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Vidanta Vallarta hosts once again, which it has done since the Mexico Open became a PGA Tour event in 2022.
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71, 7,456-yard track designed by Greg Norman that rewards strong mid-to-long iron players who can also putt the lights out on these Paspalum greens.
Find my 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta first-round leader picks below.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta First-Round Leader Picks
Keith Mitchell +4500 (BetRivers | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:52 a.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
That brings us to Keith Mitchell, who tees off in the third of 22 groups in the first round. Mitchell is certainly not the best golfer in the world, but this is a watered-down field, and he is the 10th-ranked golfer competing this week based on the Data Golf Rankings, where he is 79th overall.
There are multiple reasons why I like Mitchell to get off to a strong start this week with that early tee time. First, he is in good form with a T9 finish at The American Express and a T17 in his most recent start at the WM Phoenix Open.
Past winners at Vidanta Vallarta have been elite drivers, and Mitchell has plenty of upside with his driver. He has ranked above the Tour average in Total Driving in all seven of his seasons on Tour if we include this year's stats. He also finished an identical second on Tour in Total Driving in both 2022 and 2023, so he has the potential for an elite off the tee performance.
Mitchell is a good enough putter to take advantage once of his driving again this week, considering that he has been above Tour average in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting each of the past two seasons.
Putting is one of the keys to success this week, given that six of the top seven finishers here last year ranked in the top nine among the field in SG: Putting, the only metric where that trend occurred.
Last year at Vidanta Vallarta, 23.4% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, the largest distribution of any 25-yard range at this venue.
This season, Mitchell ranks 44th in Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%) from 175-200 yards. Finally, he has shown previous success at Greg Norman courses, evidenced by his T17 finish at the 2021 Valero Texas Open in his most recent start at TPC San Antonio.
Nicolai Højgaard +3000 (bet365 | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 9:03 a.m. ET
Nicolai Højgaard tees off in the group immediately following Mitchell, which is an advantage for the second-highest rated golfer in this field (27th overall) by Data Golf. Much like Ludvig Åberg, Højgaard is in the "next up" group of generational superstars.
He is still extremely young at 22 years old and has not won yet on the PGA Tour, which is why I trust Højgaard more on a Thursday than on a Sunday at this stage of his career. I love this play even more considering that he is almost half this price to win the tournament outright.
Højgaard checks a lot of boxes this week. First, he is in good form with three straight top-40 finishes, including his runner-up performance at the Farmers Insurance Open. Speaking of runner-up finishes, he came in second at the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship, which also features Paspalum greens.
Second, his elite Driving Distance should be a valuable differentiator this week, and Højgaard's elite driving helped him finish second at Torrey Pines, where he ranked second in the field in SG: Off the Tee. He is more long than straight off the tee, which is a perfect fit for the generous fairways that average 41 yards wide at Vidanta Vallarta and also do not feature penal rough.
While he's known as a bomber, Højgaard is sneakily very strong on the greens, as he ranked 24th in SG: Putting last season and is 42nd early on this year.
He is also above the Tour average in GIR% from 175-200 yards when combining the results over the past two seasons. Højgaard ranked above average in Approach Proximity from 175-200 yards last season (56th) and ranks second in this stat this season (albeit in a small sample size of 19 shots).
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Genesis Invitational, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Thomas Detry Outright Winner (+2800 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- Mark Hubbard Outright Winner (+5000 at FanDuel) – 0.33 Units
- Michael Kim Top Five (+1200 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Maverick McNealy Top 10 (+600 at bet365) – 0.27 Units
- Austin Eckroat Top 20 (+275 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Aaron Baddeley Top 30 (+260 at bet365) – 0.20 Units
- Chesson Hadley Top 40 (+100 at bet365) – 0.17 Units
- Nicolai Højgaard FRL (+3000 at bet365) – 0.14 Units
- Keith Mitchell FRL (+4500 at BetRivers) – 0.11 Units
