The PGA Tour season continues this week with the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta, hosted by Vidanta Vallarta. Our Action Network golf betting experts have already peppered the board at open on Monday morning with outright bets, and they have four ready.
Find our 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Outright Bets below.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Outright Bets
Jason Sobel: Keith Mitchell +3500 (FanDuel)
As perhaps the world record holder in Keith Mitchell wagers over the past few years, I’m painfully self-aware that we’re dangerously closing in on Boy Who Cried Wolf territory, but all I can say is that I really mean it this time.
The truth is, I’ve had Mitchell penciled in for Mexico and/or Houston since the schedule was released, as each tournament should give him an opportunity to use his driving prowess to his advantage, while competing against what can only be considered watered-down fields.
Mitchell also happens to be playing some decent golf right now, with three top-30 finishes in five starts this year, including a tie for 17th in his most recent appearance in Phoenix. While I’ll admit that I’ve probably backed him too often, I’m saving this week (and Houston, if he plays) as my (pair of) ace(s) in the hole.
Spencer Aguiar: Ryo Hisatsune +5000 (bet365)
21-year-old Ryo Hisatsune can make a massive statement this week in Mexico because he ranked first in my model for Expected Weighted Scoring. While his driver did have some issues regarding length off the tee, his iron play from 175+ yards generated a stellar return that propelled him to third overall in my model.
As a secondary note, if you have access to Hisatsune -120 or -125 over Mackenzie Hughes in a head-to-head matchup, now would be the time to add that wager. Numbers are only going to move on Hisatsune this week in most markets.
Matt Gannon: Ryan Fox +4000 (bet365)
Ryan Fox has the complete game to contend on any golf course as well as the guts to win, especially in a field like this. Fox got over the hill with wins over the last few seasons on the DP World Tour, including the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022 and the 2023 BMW PGA Championship this past September (where Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy were among others in the top 10).
Fox looked really solid through the first 36 holes in Phoenix but lost it over the weekend. That raucous environment would be tough to play in, but this atmosphere in Mexico should be a lot calmer than Phoenix.
Fox is above average in distance which will suit him well on this track, and the rest of his game is just solid, as he has no real weaknesses besides lack of PGA Tour reps this season. Most people will pass right over Fox this week, but he can offer real winning upside in Mexico this weekend.
Roberto Arguello: Vincent Norrman +7500 (bet365)
With Vidanta Vallarta playing as a 7,456-yard par-71, I'm targeting bombers in the outright market who have upside on approach with their mid and long irons. Over 60% of approach shots each of the last two years at Vidanta Vallarta have come from 175 yards and longer, so length and proximities from longer distances will be key.
Vincent Norrman fits the mold here as he finished last season ranked 23rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and has elite speed, ranking 17th in Ball Speed (181.3 MPH) and 15th in Club Head Speed (121.3 MPH) this season.
While the Swede was slightly above average on Strokes Gained: Approach last season on Tour, he was a below average approach player with short irons and wedges in his hands and an above average player with mid and long irons. He ranked 35th in Proximity from 175-200 yards last year on Tour along with 22nd in Proximity on Approaches from over 200 yards.
However, Norrman is slightly below average around the greens and further below average with his putter, so he is not the safest golfer in this field. Norrman's putter in particular has been very poor this season, but there is reason for optimism that the slow and sticky Paspalum greens this week should help mitigate Norrman's weakness with the flatstick.
Nonetheless, he has more upside than many of his peers in the same range of outright odds because of his potential for elite ball-striking, and he has two wins in his last 15 worldwide starts to prove this in the Barbasol Championship (albeit an opposite field event) and the Horizon Irish Open in September (where Rory McIlroy was in the field).
Norrman has played at Vallarta once before when he tied for 18th last season as he gained strokes in all four Strokes Gained categories: Off the Tee, on Approach, Around the Greens and Putting. I like him to win outright down to +6000 in this field that lacks both top-end talent and depth.
