Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions — our expert PGA Tour golf betting picks for this week's PGA Tour event at Vidanta Vallarta.
Before we get into 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta predictions, let’s quickly recap what happened at The Genesis Invitational.
Patrick Cantlay led after the first round.
Patrick Cantlay led after the second round.
Patrick Cantlay led after the third round.
Patrick Cantlay did not win the tournament. In fact, he ended up finishing in a tie for fourth, four shots behind Hideki Matsuyama. It was an incredible final-round 62 from Matsuyama, but I really thought we were on track to get our first outright winner of the season. Luckily, it was still a profitable week thanks to a top 10 from Jason Day and a top 20 from Tommy Fleetwood. We had $100 in play and brought $157 back.
We now turn our attention to the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta. This 7,456-yard par-71 is a bomber’s paradise. Most holes require a driver off the tee, and the fairways are more than 40 yards wide on average. Add in very playable rough, and bombers should have a significant edge this week.
We’ve seen this course twice since the Mexico Open became a PGA Tour event in 2022, and these golfers have strong course history: Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Patrick Rodgers and Cameron Champ — and they are all bombers.
Given the length of the course, long irons will be important. In 2023, 40% of approach shots came from at least 200 yards. The greens are fairly easy to hit on average, and this is a week where around the green play isn’t nearly as important as usual. Even when golfers do miss these greens, the scrambling success rate has been very high over the last two years.
This is the weakest PGA Tour field so far this year, so perhaps we see yet another longshot winner. After Matsuyama's win at Riviera, all seven winners on the PGA Tour in 2024 have had pre-tournament odds of at least +8000.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +$57
- Current bankroll: $853
Here are the picks for this week.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions
Taylor Pendrith to Win +2800 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $580
Pendrith isn’t the most consistent golfer on Tour, but we don’t need to worry about that when betting on outrights. He has high upside, and since the start of the swing season, he has finished in the top 10 in four of his last seven starts.
He fits the bomber narrative, as he’s top 15 in this field in Driving Distance. He tends to be better with long irons than with short irons and wedges, and as noted above, nearly 40% of approach shots will come from at least 200 yards. In his debut here last year, he finished T30. Pendrith is in better form this time around, and this is one of the weakest fields he’s played in over the last year.
Patrick Rodgers to Win +3300 (BetMGM)
Bet $20 to pay $680
This is one of those picks that looks good on paper but worries me if Patrick Rodgers ends up being in contention on Sunday. Despite tying Tiger Woods's program-record 11 wins at Stanford, Rodgers is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour.
He likely should have gotten it last year at the Barracuda Championship. Akshay Bhatia birdied his final hole to force a playoff, and then Rodgers's drive on the first playoff hole landed in a divot in the middle of the fairway. But enough of that, let’s focus on what he brings to the table this week.
He’s a bomber off the tee, he has an excellent track record on Paspalum courses, he tends to play his best on long courses, and he’s finished T10 here in each of the last two years.
Mark Hubbard Top 10 +475 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $115
Mark Hubbard doesn’t fit the bomber narrative that I am mostly rolling with this week, but he’s one of the best in the field on approach, especially from over 200 yards. He rates second (behind Tony Finau) in my Strokes Gained: Approach model based on the expected iron shots needed this week.
He enters with decent form after finishing in the top five at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is 2-for-2 at this event with a T18 finish last year. As long as he keeps it in play off the tee, I like his chances of finishing in the top 10.
Alejandro Tosti Top 10 +600 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $140
Alejandro Tosti is not a great iron player (at least not yet), but he absolutely smashes the ball off the tee. Over the last 12 months, he’s second in this field in Driving Distance. He’s often more known for his temper than his golf game, but the PGA Tour rookie finished in the top 10 in 40% of his starts on the Korn Ferry Tour.
No offense to the PGA Tour, but this is essentially a glorified Korn Ferry Tour event. Tosti finished T10 here last year, so hopefully he can replicate that performance.
Maximize your 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta golf betting action with our bet365 promo code.
Jhonattan Vegas Top 10 +650 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $150
Jhonattan Vegas is a bomber who is working his way back from an injury. After missing the cut in his first three starts of the year, he finished T22 and gained 7.2 strokes ball striking at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s fifth in this field in Driving Distance over the last 12 months, third in this field in my Expected Strokes Gained: Approach metric and has an excellent track record on Paspalum courses.
He has never played this event, but he should find the course to his liking.
