Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta PrizePicks for Thursday — first-round plays for this week's PGA Tour event.
With The Genesis Invitational in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Vidanta Vallarta hosts once again, which it has done since the Mexico Open became a PGA Tour event in 2022.
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71, 7,456-yard track designed by Greg Norman that rewards strong mid-to-long iron players who can also putt the lights out on these Paspalum greens.
Below, I give out my 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta PrizePicks for Thursday.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta PrizePicks Thursday Plays
Thomas Detry: More Than 5 Birdies or Better
Putting is one of the key aspects to look at this week, considering that six of the top-seven finishers here last year ranked among the top nine in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only metric where that trend occurred. This is good news for Thomas Detry, who ranks 13th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Paspalum greens should not be an issue for Detry, considering that he boasts three straight top-15 finishes on tournaments contested on this putting surface.
We could see this success continue on Thursday, given Detry's recent form with three straight top-30 finishes, including his tie for fourth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Last year at Vidanta Vallarta, 23.4% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, the largest distribution of any 25-yard range at this venue. When looking at the past two seasons, Detry is above the TOUR average in greens in regulation percentage (GIR%) from 175-200 yards.
Finally, he is a birdie machine, ranking sixth this season with 5.43 birdies per round.
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Nicolai Højgaard: More Than 5 Birdies or Better
I wrote about Nicolai Højgaard to lead after the first round in my first-round leader article, and if I like him to lead after Thursday, then I also think he will record at least five birdies in the process.
First, Højgaard is an advantageous spot on Thursday given that he tees off in the fourth of 22 groups, and it is almost always easier to score earlier in the day than later on when the greens get more firm.
Second, Højgaard has a high floor at this number given that he recorded five birdies in each of his four rounds at Vidanta Vallarta last year. I expect a similar performance on Thursday as he enters this week in great form with three straight top-40 finishes, including his runner-up performance at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Third, his elite Driving Distance should be a valuable differentiator this week. Højgaard's elite driving helped him finish second at Torrey Pines, where he ranked second in the field in SG: Off the Tee. Højgaard also led the field in SG: Off the Tee in his following start in an elite field in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He is more long than straight off the tee, which is a perfect fit for the generous fairways that average 41 yards wide at Vidanta Vallarta and also do not feature penal rough.
Fourth, while he's known as a bomber, Højgaard is sneakily very strong on the greens, as he ranked 24th in SG: Putting last season and is 42nd early on this year. He has also had success on Paspalum greens in the past, such as his second-place finish in the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship.
Fifth, Højgaard's approach play should suit Vidanta Vallarta because he is also above the Tour average in GIR% from 175-200 yards when combining the results over the past two seasons. Højgaard ranked above average in Approach Proximity from 175-200 yards last season (56th) and ranks second in this stat this season (albeit in a small sample size of 19 shots).
Charley Hoffman: Less Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
I'm also fading Charley Hoffman in a sell-high spot. Hoffman shocked the golf world with a runner-up finish at the WM Phoenix Open and has now made the cut in six of his past seven tournaments. However, this run is going to end eventually as the 47-year-old had missed 12 of his previous 19 cuts prior to this stretch.
I don't think this recent success is some miraculous resurgence at Hoffman's age, but rather just a string of good golf that can happen for anyone on Tour. With that said, I think he will regress to the mean sooner rather than later.
This regression could come to fruition on the greens, considering that Hoffman ranks 28th this season in Strokes Gained: Putting. That is a mere 15-round sample size and is likely unsustainable given that he was one of the worst putters on Tour last season (181st in Strokes Gained: Putting) over a larger 58-round sample size.
If regression hits Hoffman on the greens this week, then it is unlikely he will have much success at a course that rewards strong putting. In his only appearance at Vidanta Vallarta last season, Hoffman finished in a tie for 55th after losing strokes putting in all four rounds. Finally, Hoffman recorded four or fewer birdies in three of his four rounds at Vidanta Vallarta last year.
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