The 152nd Open Championship is this week in Troon, Scotland, and I have three 2024 British Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots ready.
Royal Troon Golf Club hosts The Open for the first time since 2016 this week, and this is the 11th time Royal Troon has played host to the British Open overall.
It is one of the most challenging golf courses on Earth, and it has gotten more difficult since 2016 as nine new tee boxes and 195 total yards have been added to the links.
Golfers will need to execute throughout the bag at Royal Troon because its narrow fairways and tiny greens can't be overpowered off the tee. Distance certainly helps, but accuracy off the tee is at a premium with fairway pot bunkers, gorse bushes and wispy long fescue looming for tee shots that miss the fairway.
With the small landing areas around the greens, long irons, wedge play and a strong short game will also be a necessity to win this week.
Lastly, in such a big tournament, experience on links courses could make the difference. The weather forecast looks spotty at best as the golfers will likely encounter significant wind and potentially rain. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather this week because wave advantages could arise.
Add it all together and the most important statistics to factor this week at Royal Troon are Total Driving with an emphasis for Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting and previous success at both the British Open and on links courses in general.
With the best players in the world from the PGA Tour, LIV Golf and the DP World Tour in the field this week, some of our favorite golfers can be considered longshots this week.
Let's take a look at my 2024 British Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots below who have a chance to win the Claret Jug at 80-1 odds or longer at Royal Troon.
2024 British Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Jordan Spieth 80-1 (bet365)
I did a double take when I found out Jordan Spieth is sitting here at 80-1 to win the British Open. His odds got a juicy boost from his missed cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open as he was 40-1 to win the Claret Jug last Thursday on bet365.
Spieth’s history at The Open is impeccable, and I'm willing to shoot for his upside on the links even despite some poor results this summer.
The 2017 British Open winner at Royal Birkdale has the best Average Finish Position at the British Open out of every player in the field. The Texas Longhorn has an average finish of 12.1 in his last eight starts in The Open, and in sequence, those finishes are: fourth, third, first, ninth, 20th, second, eighth and 23rd. He always finds a way to get into the mix while relying on his incredible feel in conditions that allow him to be creative.
This year has not been Spieth’s best, but he matches up perfectly with what it takes to win at Royal Troon. He ranks 15th on the PGA Tour in SG: Off the Tee and is sixth in Total Driving as he is having arguably his best season Off the Tee in his career. His irons and putter haven't been consistent, but he has undeniable upside with both and just ranked sixth in the field at the U.S. Open with his irons.
His short game and creativity will also help him to separate himself around the greens.
All signs point to a golden opportunity for Spieth this week, and at 80-1, he is my favorite longshot target in the outright market.
Sepp Straka 125-1 (bet365)
Sepp Straka has been phenomenal for much of the 2024 PGA Tour season. Prior to a missed cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, Straka had made the cut in nine of his last 10 events, with three top-five finishes in that span.
The Ox is no master on links courses by any means, but he tied for second last year at the British Open in just his second appearance at this major championship.
Straka's biggest strengths are Driving Accuracy and Approach play, and those advantages should be magnified this week. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy this season while hitting just over 72% of fairways and is 32nd in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.
At 125-1, Straka bettors received a boost following his missed cut last week as he previously 90-1 to win The Open Championship. This is great value for a great golfer in a bounce-back spot.
Akshay Bhatia 150-1 (bet365)
Last but certainly not least, I'm taking another shot on Akshay Bhatia, who remains one of the hottest golfers alive.
Bhatia's outright prices have been longer than they should be all season, and it is only a matter of time before he becomes a household name.
Just 22 years old, Bhatia is essentially making his links debut this week.
Nonetheless, there's reason for optimism because he already has a positive history in windy conditions and success on coastal golf courses. Bhatia won in 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Bahamas, and on the PGA Tour, he has top-five finishes at coastal events such as the Puerto Rico Open and Mexico Open and a win in windy conditions at the Valero Texas Open.
Bhatia has the type of complete game that should thrive at Royal Troon since he ranks 20th in Total Driving, 17th in SG: Approach and 27th in SG: Putting.
Most importantly, he has been on fire recently. His last four results in sequence have been a tie for 22nd at the Memorial Tournament, a tie for 16th at the U.S. Open, a tie for fifth at the Travelers and tie for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
