2024 Open Championship Statistical Breakdown and Top Matchup Bet

2024 Open Championship Statistical Breakdown

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

I have a podcast for the Olympics coming out Tuesday that I recorded with Michael Calabrese and Joshua Perry here at Action Network.

I know the public sentiment behind Viktor Hovland has massive concerns attached to his current form, but the 26-year-old continues to provide better results than what he is getting on the leaderboard.

That's not to suggest that his iron play was great, but most of his 2024 struggles have stemmed from his around-the-green production.

Give him a course with a lot of rough and water, and you might get him to reach his potential since all misses will be equally glaring for everyone in the field.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Royal Troon is playing heavily as a second-shot venue.

Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Billy Horschel, Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Rose are all in the top seven after earning a minimum of 3.78 over the opening two days.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Strokes Gained: Putting

Players Gaining In All Four Strokes Gained Metrics

This is a heavy-hitting group with some surprises in Daniel Brown, Sean Crocker and Matt Wallace. 

Other Players Gaining In Three Strokes Gained Metrics (Removing Putting)

Expected Score When Given Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green

Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard – Who Made Cut
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)

Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard –
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)

My second head-to-head bet for Saturday is Brian Harman (-115) over Justin Thomas.

These two have posted very different results to get to four-over par, but I will trust the four-shot advantage my model believes Harman should have through two days.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 Open Championship Round 3

Eric Cole (-120) Over Padraig Harrington (DraftKings)

Has Padraig Harrington looked great through two rounds? Yes. However, at what point are we going too far with an overcorrection for a golfer whose recent return looks like this?

Cole's typically poor driving acumen has been somewhat masked by the staggering 5.13 shots he has gained with his irons. Still, there is a reason why my model had this particular matchup at -181 before the week.

Let's not pretend as if the price will still land there after Harrington produced a top-25 outlook through Friday, but even if we want to go with the maximum shift of this dropping 40 points to -141 (an outlandish return inside my model after two rounds), we would still have almost a 4% edge on this wager.

My model has Cole up by a projected 2.19 shots over the opening two rounds.

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