The second major championship of 2024 is here. The PGA Championship heads to Valhalla Golf Club for the first time since 2014, where Rory McIlroy won in dramatic fashion.
I have boots on the ground in Louisville and am getting a great feel for the course. I like to fly out to unique courses that we do not have a ton of data year after year. My key takeaways from walking the course include that Valhalla features less than demanding tee shots, a ton of long irons and softer greens than many expected.
The tee shots are simply not visually intimidating outside of the final three holes. Combine that with softer fairways, and many balls will stick in the fairway. Outside of that, the rough is not too penal.
You may hear that there is "hay" along the fairways. Unfortunately, that is not near close enough to the fairways for them to be in play. If a golfer ends up in that wispy grass, he doesn't have a chance to begin with. That grass is simply acting as a hazard for the fans to walk through.
The emphasis on long irons will be a key part of this week's PGA Championship. I charted every single hole, and 13 of the 18 holes should call for a long iron into the greens. Sadly for us fans, the greens are soft, and the rain should only make them softer.
By no means will this course be easy, but it will not be as difficult as expected. The greens are lined with thick rough, which will actually help many golfers with less stellar short games (and potentially minimize the advantage of others with elite short games, like Scottie Scheffler). Firm, fast and sloping greens give the top players in the world fits — not lush grass.
Let's take a closer look at a few contrarian golfers who can find success around Valhalla and give you a leg up in your pools this weekend in my 2024 PGA Championship One & Done Picks below.
2024 PGA Championship One & Done Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +4100
Tommy Fleetwood is sneakily playing some really decent golf heading into the second major of the season. Although he is yet to contend this season, he has finished in a tie for 13th or better in three of his last four starts. I love the way Valhalla sets up for Fleetwood's game as well. Although he probably prefers tougher conditions, he is above average in every category.
Expect Fleetwood to play out of the fairway at a high rate and lean in on his elite long irons. He is always a great play in major conditions and is a grinder for 72 holes. Wether he gets out to a hot start or not, he will grind till the final hole and gut out a very high finish.
The golf course and form sets up very well for him, and he will surely go in slightly under the radar. Fleetwood is a great One & Done pick ahead of the 2024 PGA Championship.
Corey Conners 110-1
Conners played well at last year's PGA Championship. He was in contention deep into Saturday until he got caught under the lip of a bunker and his chances vanished. A few years ago, Conners was the first-round leader at the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. He sneakily has elevated his baseline in these events, and I can see him having another great week at Valhalla.
Conners is always a machine in terms of Driving Accuracy but leaves some to be desired in terms of Driving Distance, although his length is slightly above the Tour average. Luckily for Conners, distance is not a must this week. He is a greens-in-regulation machine, which will set him up to be rewarded on this course.
Conners does well in tougher conditions because his putter is not reliable enough to win a birdie-fest. I am expecting close to 15-under to win this week, which is right up Conners' alley. He is an extremely safe addition to make the cut and has a high ceiling because of his elite ball-striking.
Pencil in Conners in your One & Done pool because he will be extremely under the radar and can pay you off if he is on his game.
