The PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club is here, and I believe this is the least likely major for Scottie Scheffler to win this season because of the soft conditions in Louisville along with the thick rough around the greens that will mitigate his advantage with his short game.
Consequently, that also means there are more golfers who can win the PGA Championship this week than any other major this season, and I have highlighted the 50 golfers whom I believe have a chance to win the Wanamaker Trophy below in my 2024 PGA Championship Power Rankings.
I have included my bets on these golfers, their form entering this week and odds to win outright via bet365 below. For more on my thoughts on Valhalla, find my course preview article here.
For even more detail on this week's PGA Championship, tune into our Links + Locks PGA Championship Betting Preview podcast:
I am prioritizing the following metrics at Valhalla this week:
- Total Driving (With an Emphasis on Driving Distance)
- Weighted SG: Approach (With Emphasis on 175+ yards)
- SG: Around the Green (With Emphasis on Courses with Thick Rough)
- SG: Total on Long and Difficult Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Putting (With an Emphasis on Bentgrass)
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Putting from 5-10 Feet
2024 PGA Championship Power Rankings
Tier 1 – Can Win Without His Best
Scheffler is elite in three of the four major Strokes Gained statistics, which means he has more margin for error than anyone else as he hunts for his fifth win in six starts this week.
1. Scottie Scheffler +460
Rory McIlroy is playing great golf, but Scheffler remains the only golfer whom I am confident can win without his best stuff this week.
Scheffler is elite off the tee and around the greens, and his approach play is in its own tier by itself, which is why he is once again in his own tier this week.
The thick rough and lack of shortgrass and extremely sloping greens may hurt his chances of separating as easily as at Augusta National, but he should still be considered the class of this field at any course in the world.
In theory, Harbour Town Golf Links isn’t a perfect fit for Scheffler’s game either, and he just won there in his most recent start by three strokes against an elite PGA Tour field.
Tier 2 – Most Elite Contenders
These golfers are good enough to be the favorites entering most major championships, but Scheffler's generational tee-to-green play bumps them down a tier.
2. Rory McIlroy +850
Rory McIlroy’s best is arguably the best in the world, and he enters in great form this week after running away from Xander Schauffele and the rest of the field at Quail Hollow in a dominant win over the weekend.
Per DataGolf, McIlroy ranked among the top 10 in the field of 68 golfers at the Wells Fargo Championship in each Strokes Gained major category: Off the Tee (first), Approach (fourth), Around the Green (ninth) and Putting (eighth).
He was firing on all cylinders last weekend, and this could finally be the weekend he snaps his 10-year major championship drought – at the site of his most recent major victory.
3. Brooks Koepka +1650
Brooks Koepka was embarrassed by an underwhelming T45 at the Masters and bounced back with a T9 at LIV Adelaide and a win in his most recent start at LIV Singapore.
His combination of pummeling the ball off the tee, elite mid/long iron play and strong putting inside 10 feet have led him to three wins in the last six PGA Championships, and that figures to be another great recipe for success this week.
4. Jon Rahm +2000
Rahm’s -0.94 Strokes Gained (lost): Putting at the Masters were the most strokes he’s lost per round in a tournament with four rounds of data since the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, per DataGolf.
He gained strokes otherwise in every other major Strokes Gained category and has been consistent in LIV Golf with top-10 finishes in all seven starts this year, although he is winless with his best finish being a T3 this season (twice).
His combination of elite length and iron play gives him as much upside as anyone other than Scheffler, and he has no weaknesses. Rahm has thrived on several courses with similar characteristics as Valhalla such as Torrey Pines (extremely long with deep rough) and Muirfield Village (long and difficult course with Bentgrass greens), and I think he's the best bargain among the golfers in my top-two tiers at 20-1 to win outright.
I have him on my outright card this week and am playing him in One & Done as well. However, if you're looking for more contrarian One & Done plays, check out Matt Gannon's PGA Championship OAD article here.
Tier 3 – Next Contenders
These players have not had the extended major success as those with at least two major victories in the tiers above, but they all have multiple elite skill sets and will be a factor in major championships for years ahead.
5. Wyndham Clark +4600
Clark struggled to defend his title at the Wells Fargo Championship this past weekend as he failed to break par in all four rounds. Nonetheless, his elite length and putting will give him a chance this weekend if his irons are in rhythm. He’s probably the worst on approach on average among the golfers in my top-three tiers, but his putter may have the highest ceiling.
He’s been boom-or-bust this season with four top-3 finishes in 11 starts but no finishes between third and 29th either, including a missed cut at the Masters.
6. Ludvig Åberg +2200
Åberg’s skill set reminds me a lot of Koepka’s because both can bomb the ball, excel with mid and long irons and are strong putters.
He has the potential to be a generational driver of the golf ball because of his combination of elite length and significantly above average accuracy, and this may be the best major for that, as Koepka and McIlroy have shown.
Åberg has been incredibly consistent on the PGA Tour lately with eight straight top-25 finishes, including a solo second in his major championship debut at the Masters.
The 24-year-old did miss last week’s Wells Fargo Championship because of a knee issue, and that remains an unknown. I have a futures bet on Åberg this week at 25-1.
7. Xander Schauffele +1650
Like many, I have no clue how Schauffele hasn’t won since July of 2022 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and he could absolutely win this week because he has no holes in his game.
He’s second on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Total and is among the top 42 in all four major SG categories, including among the top 10 in both SG: Off the Tee and Putting.
8. Bryson DeChambeau +2800
DeChambeau led the field in SG: Off the Tee at the Masters and should have a huge advantage on this behemoth of a golf course with thick rough guarding the fairways, especially if conditions are soft, as expected.
His putter is underrated, but will his irons give him a chance this week?
9. Joaquin Niemann +3500
Niemann’s upside is elite, and he enters in great form as he has two wins in seven starts on LIV Golf this season and only one finish on the upstart tour outside of the top 10 in that span.
His ball-striking at the Masters in a T22 finish was elite, and his elite length and mid/long iron play will figure to be a factor at major championships for the foreseeable future, as long as he gets into the field for them. A win this week would obviously cement his place in those fields.
10. Max Homa +2900
Max Homa has everything needed to contend and win at a major championship if he can put the pieces together, and Homa is just starting to do so in his last two major. His only two top-10 finishes in his 18 major championship starts came in the last two majors, including his best ever result being his most recent T3 at Augusta National.
He has had wins and other high finishes at just about every one of the longest and most difficult courses on the PGA Tour, including Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines and Riviera, so it makes sense that he’s finally excelling in majors and should be a factor for the foreseeable future.
Tier 4 – Contenders with a Question Mark
These golfers can all win, but their form entering this week includes at least one major question mark, and their range of outcomes are wider than those in the third tier. Others in better form may not have as high of a ceiling as those in the third tier.
11. Patrick Cantlay +4500
Cantlay has surprisingly not been near the elite player off the tee this year that he has been since 2017; he has ranked among the top 25 in SG: Off the Tee in every year since then until this year. He was a career-best fourth in SG: Off the Tee in 2023 but is all the way down at 75th this season.
His approach play has also plummeted from 16th last season to 128th this season.
He hasn’t been nearly as consistent as in years past on approach, but he has shown that he still has upside with his irons with top-five finishes at Riviera and Harbour Town, as he ranked among the top six in SG: Approach in both Signature Events.
I held my nose and bought low on Cantlay at 45-1 in the outright market this week.
12. Viktor Hovland +5000
Hovland has been very strong off the tee this season (17th on Tour) but has regressed with his short game as he has lost strokes around the green in all seven of his starts this season, including his missed cut at the Masters.
His swing changes haven’t clicked yet as he has no result in the top 15 in 2024, but when he’s on, his ball-striking is absolutely elite.
He led the field on Sunday in SG: Approach at Quail Hollow by over a stroke as he gained 3.97 strokes over the field with his irons. His 5.17 SG: Tee to Green also led the field by nearly 1.5 strokes on Sunday, and this sign of life was enough for me to bite on him at 50-1 to win outright. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s outside my top-two tiers, but his floor right now is also lower than many others in this tier.
13. Justin Thomas +6000
The two-time PGA Championship winner’s approach play has bounced back after a wayward year in 2023, but his putter and lack of driving accuracy have held him back. His ability to curve the ball both directions means that he still has tons of upside when combining his length and elite play around the green.
He’s one of the first golfers who missed my outright card despite strong consideration. He hasn’t had a finish in the top 35 of a major since his PGA Championship win in 2022, but he should be ready to take advantage of the stage in his hometown of Louisville.
14. Tommy Fleetwood +4100
Fleetwood is one of the rare golfers with below-average Driving Distance among my top-50 players this week, but ranking fourth in Driving Accuracy at 77.80% has been a huge asset.
Fairway Jesus has top-10 finishes in each of the last three major championships and is in strong form with top-13 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a tie for third at the Masters. He also has recorded three of his four best tournaments on approach in his last four starts.
I think others in his outright odds range have higher upsides than him this week because of the soft conditions that will minimize his elite short game and his lack of elite distance off the tee, but he has a very high floor this week.
15. Cameron Young +5500
Young is a bomber who has high upside on approach, especially from the key distance range of 175-225 yards.
His putter and short game have been weaknesses this season, but he does have some upside with the putter and has proven that his game plays up in major championships with top-10 finishes in five of his last eight major starts. He was one of the golfers I strongly considered to bet outright but ultimately decided to stray away from.
16. Tyrrell Hatton +7000
Hatton was quietly seventh on Tour last season in SG: Total and is still ninth in Datagolf’s rankings, but it’s underwhelming that he only has one win in 129 PGA Tour starts.
He has finished lower than 15th once between 10 starts on LIV Golf and the PGA Tour and tied for ninth at the Masters last month.
He has no weakness in his game and could absolutely win this week if he finally puts the pieces together for his first worldwide win since January of 2021 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
17. Cameron Smith +5500
Arguably the best putter in the world, Cameron Smith is one of the few golfers who can win without elite ball-striking this week, like he did in his 2022 Open Championship victory.
He has top-10 finishes in three of the last four majors as his floor is incredibly high because of his elite short game and putting, and if his irons get hot, he could absolutely win.
However, being below average in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy will put him at a disadvantage at Valhalla, especially in soft conditions.
18. Byeong-Hun An +7000
Byeong Hun An finished in a distant third place at 9-under at Quail Hollow this past weekend. An, who was on the Korn Ferry Tour just two years ago, now incredibly sits in sixth place in the PGA Tour’s FedExCup Standings because both his ball-striking and putting are the best they've ever been.
This was An’s second consecutive top-five finish on Tour as he tied for fourth last week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and his fifth overall top 10 of the year.
An, who ranked 130th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting entering last week, led the field in SG: Putting as he gained 2.15 strokes over the field per round on the greens, per Datagolf.
With his standout putting weekend, An improved 29 spots to 91st in SG: Putting this season and is now a slightly positive putter for the season thanks to his switch to a broomstick over the last year. This is a remarkable development for An, who has never been even an average putter in his PGA Tour career.
Here are his SG: Putting ranks and values on the PGA Tour throughout his career. The Cal Bear was on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, so there is no data from that season, and he was also 195th out of 196 golfers on Tour in SG: Putting in 2021.
| Year | SG: Putting Rank | SG: Putting Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91 | 0.064 |
| 2023 | 144 | -0.194 |
| 2022 | N/A | N/A |
| 2021 | 195 | -0.867 |
| 2020 | 176 | -0.525 |
| 2019 | 182 | -0.583 |
| 2018 | 165 | -0.285 |
| 2017 | 171 | -0.375 |
He’s fourth on Tour in Driving Distance this season and thrives on long approaches, so he’s a sneaky play whom I believe has both a high floor and ceiling if his putter pops again this week.
Unlike many in this tier, he is playing the best golf of his career right now. In his last two major championship starts, An has two top-23 finishes. In his prior 26 major starts, he had just three top-23 finishes.
19. Collin Morikawa +3200
Morikawa’s putter, which traditionally has not been a big strength, has been hot lately, but his approach play has been far below his standard as he searches for his swing after switching instructors multiple times in the past year.
He’s still short off the tee but remains among the most accurate drivers, so if he can find a swing thought that works, he can contend again like he did at the Masters when he tied for third despite a poor final round.
20. Hideki Matsuyama +7500
Matsuyama’s health status remains a huge unknown, but when he does tee it up, his approach play and short game remain elite. The 2021 Masters winner lacks power off the tee but still ranks third in SG: Tee to Green. His putter is a big question mark each week as he currently ranks outside the top 150 on Tour in SG: Putting.
He has only gained more than a stroke per round once with his putter this season: in his three-shot win at The Genesis Invitational.
21. Sahith Theegala +7500
Theegala’s approach play has risen to another level this season, but his around the green play has fallen off considerably. He’s long off the tee and can ride a hot putter to contention or a win if his irons are on, as evidenced by his five top-nine finishes this season on Tour.
He needs to avoid wide misses off the tee because graduated rough that gets thicker farther away from the fairway could pose a problem. Finding enough fairways is the key for Theegala this week and most weeks.
22. Akshay Bhatia 145-1
Bhatia’s move to the broomstick putter hasn’t been discussed enough because he improved from a poor 183rd in SG: Putting last season to an impressive 22nd in SG: Putting in 2024. Changing the biggest weakness in his game into a clear strength has paid massive dividends for the 22-year-old, who now has two PGA Tour wins in the last year despite starting 2023 without status on the PGA Tour.
Bhatia now has upside throughout the bag and is someone whose upside markets I’m intrigued in this week, and I bet him to win at 145-1.
Tier 5 – Dark Horses
I don’t expect these golfers to contend, and they either have a significantly higher likelihood of missing the cut or are safe golfers who should make the weekend but have limited upside because of putting concerns. Nonetheless, if they have their A game this week, they are capable of winning.
23. Sam Burns +7000
Burns has gained over a stroke per round on approach in just one major championship before (2022 PGA Championship) and has never finished higher than a tie for 20th, which was also in the same event.
He was among top 30 in SG: Approach on the PGA Tour in both 2021 (30th) and 2022 (18th) but hasn’t reached that form with his irons in the last two years.
The LSU Tiger hasn’t won this year and won just once last year – at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where he somehow slightly lost strokes on approach for the week and still went a perfect 7-0 on the week.
There’s upside if his irons improve, but he’s always been better with his short irons and wedges than mid irons and long irons, so
He hasn’t gained more than a stroke per round with his irons in any event with four rounds of data this season, and I would be very surprised to see that change this week.
Nonetheless, his driver and elite putter could carry him to a high finish.
24. Jason Day +7500
Day is similar to Burns because his approach play, and specifically long-iron play, are questionable, but he has upside with the rest of his game. Like Burns, he also hasn’t gained more than a stroke per round with his irons in any event with four rounds of data this season
His short game and putting each gained over a stroke per round this past weekend at Quail Hollow when he tied for a distant fourth, so there is upside if his irons pop this week.
25. Dustin Johnson 105-1
Johnson has been boom-or-bust on LIV Golf this season with three top-seven finishes, including a win, along with four finishes outside the top 20.
In the only event with data this season, Johnson missed the cut at the Masters. Nonetheless, he still has tremendous upside on approach and with his driver, and I believe he will contend at least once this year.
26. Jordan Spieth +7500
Jordan Spieth’s play off the tee is about as strong as it’s ever been, but his approach play this season is also as poor as it’s ever been. Spieth said this week that his mechanics are more sound than they’ve been in a while and that he’s playing better than his results have showed.
I believe that he will figure it out at some point in the near future, but I’m not betting on it this week in his eighth attempt at the grand slam.
27. Matt Fitzpatrick +8500
The 2022 U.S. Open champion only ranks among the top 75 on the PGA Tour in one of the four major Strokes Gained categories at 39th in SG: Putting.
While his approach play has never been consistently elite, he has been relatively better over the last few years on longer iron shots than shorter ones. He has a great short game and was third in the field at the Masters last month in SG: Putting, so if he puts it together with his ball-striking, he has sneaky upside and can win.
28. Tony Finau +9000
Finau’s ball-striking remains elite, and his short game is underrated, but the putter has been a bg weakness this season. He has gained strokes putting in just four of 12 events this season and hasn’t gained more than 0.5 strokes per round with the putter in any event in 2024.
He’s also lost strokes with the putter in each of the last five majors and has no top 25s in that span. If the putter gets hot, he can win this week, but I’m not expecting it.
29. Stephan Jaeger 145-1
I like Jaeger’s upside this week a lot more than most golfers in his outright odds range, so I consequently have bet him to win outright at 145-1. He’s been piecing it together for four top-21 finishes in his last five starts, including his win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
He has upside throughout his bag, but his putter will need to cooperate because he has lost strokes on the greens in six of his last eight events.
The German Hammer missed the cut at the Masters last month, but I believe he will capture his first top-30 major finish in his sixth ever major championship start this week. I also like him in top-20 (+375) and top-40 (+210) markets this week.
30. Si Woo Kim +8500
Si Woo Kim is another rare golfer in this power ranking who is below average in Driving Distance, but he’s playing the best golf of his career because he is finding 76.91% of fairways this season (fifth in Driving Accuracy on Tour) and capitalizing on opportunities from the fairway as he ranks ninth on Tour in SG: Approach.
He’s also very strong around the green but is horrific with the putter(s) because whether he has used a short putter or a broomstick or a traditional putting grip or the left-hand-low method, putts simply haven’t dropped enough this year for the youngest golfer ever to win The Players Championship.
His floor is extremely high, and his 13 top-44 finishes in all 13 of his starts on Tour this season show that (along with seven top-20 finishes). However, he has gained more than one stroke putting in an event just once this season, when he tied for sixth at The Players Championship.
31. Will Zalatoris +8500
Zalatoris’ approach play remains strong, but his driver is significantly shorter than it was just two seasons ago; he is averaging 296.8 yards off the tee this season (105th) with his new swing compared to 314.7 yards off the tee in 2022 (13th).
Driving Distance was once a major asset in his game but is now a slight liability, and I don’t believe he has the short game or putting to make up for this and win this week. Nonetheless, his approach play will give him a chance, and he has top-10 finishes at big events this year such as the Masters (T9), Arnold Palmer Invitational (T4) and The Genesis Invitational (T2).
Until his driver gets more pop, I’ll be out on Zalatoris outrights.
32. Sepp Straka 105-1
The Ox enters the PGA Championship with a ton of momentum as he rides into Louisville with four straight top-16 finishes, including a tie for eighth at Quail Hollow last weekend.
He has three top-16 major championship finishes, and all three have come in his last four major starts, so he is coming into his own on golf’s biggest stages.
While he is short off the tee, he has upside with his irons and putter and should play more often from the fairway than most this week.
His other weakness besides length is his short game, but that should be mitigated this week.
33. Min Woo Lee +8500
Min Woo Lee has been elite off the tee and second on Tour in Ball Speed at 188.01 MPH but hasn’t been consistent anywhere else this season.
Most notably, he’s yet to establish himself as an above-average approach player by Tour standards, but his long irons have been relatively better than his short irons, so there is some reason for optimism if he starts cooking on approach this week.
34. Corey Conners 115-1
The Canadian is an elite ball-striker who ranks third in SG: Approach and 25th in SG: Off the Tee this season, but he also has been poor both in SG: Around the Green and Putting, ranking outside the top 140 on Tour in both.
This isn’t breaking news, but Conners also is having his worst putting season, per DataGolf, since 2020 and his worst season around the green since 2018.
He was second in Approach play at the Wells Fargo Championship this past weekend, but his putting and short game prevented him from capturing his first top-10 finish since last August.
He only has one finish outside the top 44 this season and has not missed a cut since last June at the U.S. Open, so he has a high floor, but his ceiling is also capped for now.
35. Talor Gooch 130-1
Gooch is one of the golfers I’ve struggled to get a great read on because of his lack of data since the beginning of 2023. His iron play has been hyperbolized, and I’m still intrigued to find out just how high his ceiling is there, but I know his ceiling with the driver isn’t high enough to be a weapon this week, which is why I have my doubts about him at Valhalla.
He does have four top-nine finishes on LIV Golf this season, so he deserves a spot in my top 50, and I’m glad he got an exemption into this event, even if his decision not to try and qualify for the U.S. Open is disappointing.
36. Adam Scott 145-1
The 14-time PGA Tour winner can still smash the ball with his silky swing and has upside everywhere but with his short game. However, I’m optimistic that the soft conditions and thick rough will make him a net winner around the green this week.
He’s a golfer I’d most like to back in a matchup against a fade candidate because he has a high floor and has only finished outside the top 45 in one event in his last 13 worldwide starts dating back to November, including a T22 at the Masters.
Tier 6 – Longshots
It would be surprising to see any of these golfers win, but they can all contend and have shown at least flashes of form recently. They may not be as consistently great as others in the tiers above, but on any given week, they can win with their best.
37. Keith Mitchell 195-1
Cashmere Keith has always been a great total driver, but his irons have never been significantly above average until this season. That gives him legitimate ball-striking upside, but his putter is also the worst it’s been since 2018.
If he can figure it out on the greens, Mitchell can win despite being priced near 200-1.
38. Alex Noren 145-1
Alex Noren has finished 53rd or better in all 11 starts this year and has finished no lower than 24th in each of his last seven starts.
While he’s short off the tee, he excels everywhere else, especially around the green.
His lack of length limits his upside and is why he doesn’t have a top-10 finish in a major since 2017, but he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career right now – it’s either now or in 2018.
He’s a safe golfer who should make the cut (top 70 and ties), and consequently, my best bet on our Links + Locks PGA Championship Betting Preview was for Noren to finish 59th or Better at -120 on bet365, even despite the juice.
39. Denny McCarthy 135-1
McCarthy has risen to the occasion with some impressive finishes over the last year on the PGA Tour at some of the toughest courses. He tied for sixth last week at Quail Hollow, finished in solo second at TPC San Antonio (Oaks) after shooting a final-round 63 and also lost in another playoff last June at Muirfield Village.
I think Muirfield Village is one of the better comp courses for Valhalla this week as both are demanding tee-to-green tests with bentgrass greens. McCarthy had his best putting week of the last calendar year at Muirfield Village when he gained nearly three shots per round on the greens.
He’s short off the tee which is why I don’t think he will have staying power on the leaderboard for for rounds when combining with his less consistent approach play, but his single-round heaters can get as hot as anyone thanks to his elite play around the green and his top-two putter in the world – he and Cameron Smith are in a class of their own on the greens, in my opinion.
Consequently, I have a first-round leader ticket on McCarthy at 80-1.
40. Harris English 195-1
The four-time PGA Tour winner has both a significantly above average short game and putter, but his iron play has been less consistent this season. He’s about average in Driving Distance, but if he hits enough fairways and gives himself opportunities on the greens, he can go low with the best.
The Georgia Bulldog has elevated his game at tough courses over the last few years, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hang around the first page of the leaderboard this weekend or even win if his irons pop.
41. Kurt Kitayama 155-1
The UNLV product showed last year in his win at Bay Hill in an elevated event that he has the big-time game needed to win at the toughest courses in the world. He bombs the ball off the tee and excels on approach, especially from longer distances.
His short game is also strong, but his putter has held him out of contention this year. If the flatstick cooperates, Kitayama can win this week.
42. Keegan Bradley 230-1
Bradley’s irons are entering with a sizzle as he has gained over 1.3 strokes per round on approach in each of his last three tournaments at the Masters, RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship.
He hasn’t been strong on both the greens and off the tee since he lost in a playoff at the Sony Open, but he has more upside than almost every other golfer longer than 200-1 this week.
43. Taylor Pendrith 185-1
Pendrith’s putter has come to life this year as he ranks sixth on Tour in SG: Putting after ranking outside the top 100 in SG: Putting in each of his two other years on Tour.
He noted at the Byron Nelson that he has been dealing with a shoulder injury since Torrey Pines in January 2023, but he is in a better spot with that injury now and has four consecutive top-11 finishes on Tour.
Yes, one of those was an opposite-field event, and another was a team event, but he also secured his first Tour win and tied for 10th last week at a difficult test in the Wells Fargo Championship.
His irons haven’t been an asset this season, but the rest of his game has upside if his driver and putter stay hot like they have been over the last month.
44. Dean Burmester 165-1
Dean Burmester murders the golf ball off the tee and has been at least 20 yards longer than the field average in each of the last three LIV Golf events. For reference, Jon Rahm has been no more than 16 yards longer than the field average in any of those events.
The LIV Golf setups usually leave a lot to be desired in terms of difficulty, but I believe the most relevant test on LIV Golf came at LIV Miami at Doral, where Burmester won in a playoff. He followed that up with a tie for third in Adelaide and a T14 in Singapore and is clearly playing some great golf right now.
The 34-year-old is making just his eighth major championship start this week and has one finish in the top 35 in a major with a T11 at the 2022 Open Championship.
45. Cameron Davis 230-1
The Aussie’s length and long iron play give him upside, and that’s why he has top-12 finishes in two of his last three major championships, including the T12 last month at the Masters. He hasn’t gained over a stroke per round on approach in a tournament since last June, but he reminded us of his driving upside at last year’s PGA Championship where he was fifth in SG: Off the Tee and tied for fourth in the event.
His best results this season have come on long and difficult tracks like Bay Hill (T18), Augusta National and Memorial Park (T21), and I believe the PGA Championship is a great fit for his game annually with its combination of length and rough.
46. Lucas Glover 310-1
The 2009 U.S. Open champion remains an absolute flusher as he is sixth in SG: Approach this season and also sixth in Driving Accuracy on Tour. However, he’s very short, which is a liability this week, and after gaining nearly a stroke per round on the greens in back-to-back victories late last summer, he has yet to putt that well for a single tournament since those victories.
Glover should be a relatively safe golfer to make the weekend because he will hit greens in regulation at a high rate, but his upside is limited by the cold putter.
47. Taylor Moore 280-1
The Arkansas Razorback is coming off of his first top-20 finish in a major when he tied for 20th at the Masters last month.
I believe in Taylor Moore’s upside more than most because I like that he can spike in any part of his game. He can ride a hot putter to as low of a round as anyone, which is why I’ve bet him for first-round leader at 125-1 on bet365.
He showed earlier this season that he can contend on long and difficult courses even without his best stuff when he tied for second at the Houston Open despite losing strokes for the week on approach. No other golfer at that event finished in the top 15 who lost strokes on approach. If his irons are in form this week, I believe he can win, and I’ve sprinkled him as my second-longest outright bet at 280-1.
I also bet him for a top 10 at +1600 and a top 20 at +600.
48. Luke List 460-1
Luke List’s putter has gone from one of the biggest liabilities on the PGA Tour to basically neutral this season, which is a huge accomplishment.
He will be as big of a beneficiary as any because of the thick rough surrounding the greens that will help mitigate his poor around the green game.
The two-time PGA Tour winner bombs the ball off the tee, is sixth on Tour this season in Approach Proximity Over 200 Yards and has shown that he can compete against the Tour’s best with his tie for second at Riviera this season.
Some of his best results on Tour have come at Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village, and I believe that may translate this week. I have tickets on List for first-round leader at 170-1, top 10 at 20-1 and top 20 at 8-1. I also believe that he is the golfer with the longest odds who can win this week, and I threw a tiny sprinkle on him at 460-1.
49. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 195-1
His approach play and putter can both sneakily be elite, but he’ll be lucky to gain strokes off the tee this week. He has five straight top-25 finishes on Tour, so he’s best suited as someone to back in a matchup against a fade candidate.
This is his best shot at his first top-25 finish at a major because he is playing the best golf of his career statistically right now
50. Patrick Reed 165-1
His short game and putting give him a chance, but his lack of distance limits his upside.
The 2018 Masters winner knows how to grind out rounds in major championships, and he has been consistently phenomenal on the greens as he has gained at least a half stroke per round putting in each of the last six major championships (where he has finished inside the top 56 each time).
His upside is limited, but Reed could be a sneaky top-10 (+1000), top-20 (+400) or DFS play if you’re looking for ways to back him.
