While everyone wants all of the best golfers in the world to play on the same tour, the fact that they don’t on a weekly basis makes the majors that much better.
PGA Tour and LIV Golf players only compete together four times a year, and the 2024 PGA Championship is one of them. Valhalla Golf Club hosts this week and is a par-71 in Louisville, Kentucky. It was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1986 and stretches over 7,600 yards.
This is a standard par-71 layout with three par-5s, four par-3s and 11 par-4s. The par-3s all measure over 190 yards, and six of the par-4s measure over 470 yards.
This is an absolute brute and a course that should play into the hands of the bombers. When the PGA Championship was last held here in 2014, distance off the tee was certainly advantageous. Rory McIlroy is one of the big storylines entering the week because he won here in 2014 and has won back-to-back events (Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Wells Fargo Championship).
The fairways now feature zoysiagrass, which dries out quicker and will be a little firmer than the old bentgrass fairways. The greens are small (5,000 square feet) and feature bentgrass. They are expected to roll around 13 on the stimpmeter, which is faster than most greens on Tour.
The fairways aren’t particularly narrow, but golfers will want to keep the ball in the short grass. The thick four-inch rough features a mix of tall fescue and bluegrass.
While I will be looking at driving distance and all-around play, majors typically come down to more than a course fit. I’m looking at a few different factors this week – experience in majors, experience on long and difficult courses and experience in strong fields.
Find my 2024 PGA Championship Predictions below.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$35
- Current bankroll: $480
2024 PGA Championship Predictions
2024 PGA Championship Outright Predictions
Brooks Koepka to Win +1800 (ESPN Bet)
Bet $20 to Pay $380
Even if you aren’t a fan of LIV Golf, you shouldn’t count out their golfers at the majors. They have been factors in almost every major over the last 18 months. Koepka has already won five major championships, and there have been a couple of noteworthy patterns.
The first is that when he wins a major, he typically posts a very strong finish in the start leading up to the event. If you weren’t paying attention to LIV Golf, he won two weeks ago in Singapore.
The other pattern is that he won the U.S. Open in back-to-back years and the PGA Championship in back-to-back years. Guess what? He won the PGA Championship last year, so he has a chance to win back-to-back PGAs once again. He loves majors and loves difficult courses.
If you can’t find the +1800 at ESPN Bet, I’m fine betting it down to +1600.
Bryson DeChambeau to Win +2800 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to Pay $580
I’m going with two LIV golfers on my outright card this week. As I mentioned in the introduction, driving distance will be a key factor this week. Every single hole is long, and honestly, it’s not just the driving distance. DeChambeau and the longer hitters will be hitting shorter clubs into the par-3s as well.
DeChambeau has been in solid form on LIV Golf all year and was in contention at the Masters before some poor chips led to his demise. He clearly knows how to win a major, as he accomplished that feat at the 2020 U.S. Open, which was another long and difficult course with thick rough.
If I could only make one outright bet this week, it would be on DeChambeau.
Cameron Young to Win +6000 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to Pay $1220
Friends don’t let friends bet on Cameron Young to win, but I’m not telling my friends about this bet.
I’ve often said that his first win on the PGA Tour is going to come on a major championship golf course because his game seems to get better as the courses get more difficult.
If you don’t believe me, take a look at his track record at the majors. He has played in nine of them and has five top-10 finishes. He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and already has seven runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour in his career. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks through.
Asking him to win this week might be a bit much, but I couldn’t pass on him at 60-1 on a bomber’s course.
2024 PGA Championship Placement Predictions
Justin Thomas Top 10 +450 (bet365)
Bet $20 to Pay $110
There are a lot of reasons to like JT this week. For starters, he has already won two PGA Championships in his career. For whatever reason, this is the major where he has had the most success in his career.
This is also a home game for him, as he grew up in Louisville, Kentucky. While that may come with some added pressure, that’s offset by the fact that he grew up playing in the area and will feel right at home. While his recent form has been inconsistent, he has quietly been a top-15 machine over the last eight months. During that stretch, he has tied for 12th or better in nine of his last 14 starts worldwide. I love the top-10 bet at +450.
Will Zalatoris Top 10 +600 (bet365)
Bet $20 to Pay $140
And finally, we have the major specialist himself, Willy Z.
His game has been all over the place this year, as he continues to work his way back from back surgery. Zalatoris struggled mightily at the Wells Fargo Championship last week but has finished in the top 10 in three of his last seven starts. All of those top 10s came on difficult courses (Augusta National, Bay Hill and Riviera).
Zalatoris has been one of the best in the world in majors over the last four years and is not getting much respect from the betting market this week.
