2024 PGA Championship Props: Nationality Bets for Patrick Cantlay & More

As the off-course distractions between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf continue to mount, the four major championships get more and more sacred because they are the only four weeks of the year where all the best golfers in the world gather in the same place.

The Wanamaker Trophy is on the line this week as Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky hosts the 2024 PGA Championship.

Major weeks often offer some juicy numbers for outright plays on prominent golfers, but in addition to those types of wagers, there are also opportunities to find value in more creative markets.

One of those exotic markets is nationality props. I’ve identified four golfers below in different nationality markets whom I believe offer strong value at their respective numbers. All odds are via DraftKings.

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2024 PGA Championship Props

Top American Finisher: Patrick Cantlay +2200

Patrick Cantlay’s ball-striking numbers may be down a bit in 2024 in comparison to his last couple of seasons, but make no mistake — this is still one of the elite players in today’s game.

You’re now offering me odds better than 20-1 for him to be the top American at a golf course that on paper fits his game very well? I’ll bite.

Valhalla appears to be a traditional PGA Championship setup because it is long and lush, and after listening to some of the players' comments this week, driving and mid-iron play will be critical in Louisville.

Strong iron play has been Cantlay’s bread and butter for some time now, and while this year's numbers are down, Cantlay did finish in the top 25 at the Masters and followed that up with a tie for third at Harbour Town, indicating his form is trending back in the right direction.

He also finished strong last week at Quail Hollow after an opening-round 73 placed him near the bottom of the leaderboard after Thursday.

Scottie Scheffler is the clear top dog in the American market, but with the Texan fresh off the birth of his first child, I’m expecting a little bit of rust from the undisputed world No. 1.

After Scheffler and Brooks Koepka, the door is wide open, so I’ll take my chances on Patty Ice to deliver and thrust himself right into the thick of things for a chance to win his first major.

Top Great Britain & Ireland Finisher: Tommy Fleetwood +500

Given the myriad of long approach shots expected this week, finding the fairway will be paramount to create birdie opportunities.

Well, guess who checks in at fourth on Tour in Driving Accuracy, finding the short grass at just under a 78% clip this season? That's Tommy Fleetwood.

The Englishman has been a fixture in the major championships for a while now after finishing in the top 10 in each of the last three majors, including a tie for third at the Masters last week. He only has one finish outside the top 33 in the last nine major championships, including six top-14 finishes in those last nine major starts.

Could this be the week he finally breaks through? It’s certainly possible, but I’ll take him in the Great Britain and Ireland market where he has the second-best odds behind Rory McIlroy.

Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick both enter Louisville in questionable form, so I’ll roll with Fleetwood at 5-1 in what feels like a battle between him and McIlroy.

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Top Continental European: Alex Noren +1400

You know there are a lot of markets to bet on these days when there are odds for different sections of a continent. Play the hand with the cards you're dealt!

Nobody is flying under the radar like Alex Noren is this season. He may be into his 40s, but the Swede is often the last player on the range grinding away at the game he loves.

Noren is a former top-10 player in the world who has recaptured a lot of that form in 2024 because he currently ranks third on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average, fifth in SG: Total, eighth in SG: Tee to Green and sixth in Greens in Regulation Percentage.

Additionally, in his last seven starts, some of which were on incredibly demanding golf courses, Noren does not have a result worse than a tie for 24th.

Jon Rahm and Ludvig Åberg are the two favorites in the Continental European market, and both sit at odds of +275 and +360, respectively. The only other player with single-digit odds is Viktor Hovland, who continues to really struggle after a swing change.

14-1 feels like great value on a player who loves to battle on difficult golf courses and enters this week with a boatload of confidence. Do not be surprised at all if the Swedish stalwart is in the hunt this week.

Top Oceania Finisher: Adam Scott +400

This is a play on veteran experience and a man who never appears to be out of form.

Adam Scott loves major championships, and it’s well documented that he believes he needs one more to really cement his career. How much does he love them?

When he tees it up Thursday it will mark his 91st consecutive major appearance, which is more than double that of the next-longest run among active players (Jordan Spieth at 43).

The Aussie has long been heralded for having one of the prettiest swings in the world, and he’s still got plenty of speed at 43.

The former world No. 1 has had plenty of solid finishes in 2024 but hasn’t truly contended on a Sunday yet. That could change this week, especially if he continues to drive it well, as he currently sits 11th on Tour in Total Driving.

Adam’s main competitors in this market are Cameron Smith, Jason Day and Min Woo Lee, who all sit in the +260 to +360 range. Smith hasn’t done a ton on LIV Golf lately, and Lee and Day are hardly safe bets to play well in a difficult setup because of their middling iron play. Scott also ranks the highest among this group in Strokes Gained: Approach so far in 2024.

At 4-1 I’ll take my chances on Scott, given his reliability in majors and no real weakness in his game.