The PGA Tour's strongest field of the year is at this week's 2024 Players Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, and our experts have their Players Championship Picks & Best Bets ready.
Golf betting experts Jason Sobel, Spencer Aguiar and Matt Gannon have picks for TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) as we break down our 2024 Players Championship Picks & Best Bets and more expert PGA picks.
Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Players Championship Picks & Best Bets for the PGA Tour's 11th event of 2024 at Pete Dye's iconic TPC Sawgrass.
2024 Players Championship Picks & Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Will Zalatoris Top 10 +275 (FanDuel)
In my weekly preview, I listed Will Zalatoris as my favorite outright, but for my best bet, I’ll repurpose that idea and offer him up for a top-10 finish.
At one point last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he appeared to be cruising to a title.
If you turned off the television on Saturday afternoon when Will Zalatoris held a five-stroke advantage and figured it was over, welcome to the wild world of professional golf, where even an elite talent like Willy Z. can go from 60 to 0 in a matter of minutes, slamming on the brakes and ultimately finishing in a share of fourth place, eight shots behind the winner.
Even so, his game looks verrrry close to winning soon, and whether that happens this week, four weeks from now at the Masters, or at a tournament like the U.S. Open, it might have as much to do with how Scheffler plays as it does Zalatoris. It’s asking a lot based on what we just witnessed, but a head-to-head win over the No. 1-ranked player just might be enough to beat everyone else, too.
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Spencer Aguiar: Russell Henley Top 20 +190 (bet365)
There is a reason why sharp markets have continued to pounce on every opportunity to back Russell Henley in various matchups throughout the industry. While most of that value is gone because of the sudden movement that occurred against the likes of Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tony Finau, there have still been books a little slower to move on Henley's placement price.
My model projected Henley fourth when diving into the biggest corollary for finding high-end success when combining Approach Play Within 150 Yards and what essentially became a Scrambling return when looking into Bogey Avoidance on the challenging holes, 3-putt Avoidance and overall Scrambling data.
The venue's lack of consistency will have me mostly looking the other way when it comes to exposure, but I like the idea of taking a shot here at +190 that Henley's profile gives him his third straight top-20 finish at this venue.
Matt Gannon: Eric Cole Top 20 +350 (FanDuel)
Just a few weeks ago, Eric Cole was massive chalk at PGA National and obviously let the masses down. If you liked him that week, you have to like him at TPC Sawgrass. They are extremely similar golf courses, and both suit Cole’s game beacuse he is more accurate than long with the driver and can get very hot with the middle irons.
He is a Florida guy and an absolute grinder who will give you four rounds and fight for that top-20 spot. He also excels at cashing back-door top finishes. If he gets off to a slow start, don't be worried: Cole fits this style of golf, and we are getting a discount after the recent missed cut.
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2024 Players Championship Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Scottie Scheffler +600
- Spencer Aguiar: Max Homa +2800
- Matt Gannon: Xander Schauffele +2400
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Billy Horschel +12000 (Outright) / Tom Hoge (Props) +7500
- Aguiar: Brian Harman +6500
- Gannon: Billy Horschel +12000
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Patrick Cantlay +2400
- Aguiar: Justin Thomas +2000
- Gannon: Scottie Scheffler +600
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Sungjae Im +6500
- Aguiar: Jordan Spieth +2700
- Gannon: Ludvig Åberg +3200
Trend That Guides Your 2024 Players Championship Betting Strategy
Aguiar: 17 holes feature water in play here at TPC Sawgrass. Strokes Gained: Around the Green will still be amplified because of the smaller putting surfaces, but it is hard to weigh properly since shaved run-off areas allow multiple options to be considered when attempting to get up and down.
I decided to run my model with a hint of 3-putt Avoidance totals to account for that Off-the-Green creative nature, although I continued to land under this mentality that if you could combine the ability to scramble and hit your irons from within 150 yards, you had the best chance for high-end success.
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Gannon: Playing from the short grass is the recipe for success around TPC Sawgrass. On an annual basis, we see the winning score below -10, and plenty of birdies are made around here, especially if conditions are soft or if there is a lack of wind.
But just as easily as golfers can make birdies, they can make doubles if their drives are a few yards offline. Thick rough, trees, bunkers and water line these pure fairways, which makes the scoring super volatile. Year after year there are rounds in the low 60s and just as many in the high 70s.
It will all start with playing from the fairway. Golfers who are accurate off the tee will have a leg up this week. Outside of just sorting by Driving Accuracy, look to golfers who have performed well at “club-down” golf courses.
