The Presidents Cup is back in Montreal this weekend at The Royal Montreal Golf Club.
Below, I have a 2024 Presidents Cup course breakdown with best DFS values and a betting strategy.
Course Breakdown
Royal Montreal Golf Club
7,279 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bent and Poa
I know these words below might be controversial, especially because when we think of the strength of any American team, we always get squads that have massive total driving upside.
That includes the predisposition to be longer off the tee than their opponents.
A reasonable mindset would normally veer the Internationals against a bomb-and-gouge layout because of those factors.
Nonetheless, my data seemed to believe that the optimal path to success for the International side would be to allow distance to play a factor.
That allows the 71 bunkers and six holes with water to accentuate the strengths of a team that finds the majority of its success from driving totals in all areas of the game.
Does that need to come from only distance? Of course not, although my model thought the Internationals had four of the six longest drivers, 10 of the 17 best total drivers and nine of the 17 best players when approaching the green from a missed fairway.
Essentially, if you aren't building a course to turn this into a driving battle, you're forfeiting any chance you have upfront.
What you can't have is this becoming a putting contest. I know you're going to get the outliers at the bottom for the USA team of Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler and the high-end options for the Internationals like Adam Scott and Mackenzie Hughes.
However, when eight of the nine best putters on similar greens are on the American side of the equation, you're going to find yourself in a massive hole when you realize the two largest edges over the four days will come during each 'Best Ball' contest + Singles competition on Sunday.
That's because of the sheer upside and birdie-making that the Americans possess.
I don't know if Mike Weir will construct his lineup properly, but the International side has fewer mistakes possible when creating a build because the team consists of primarily solid drivers who have particular strengths in other areas of their game.
I still don't think they'll win because of the firepower on the other side, but there are paths for this to be closer than expected. You can read about one of the ways I'm playing this board in my article from earlier in the week.
Betting Strategy: Embrace Volatility
If I were an International captain in the locker room, the title above would be a battle cry for our side. The sentiment also rings true for us in the betting market.
Most sectors involving American players have been condensed price-wise, including the always popular "Top American Scorer" option, which features what I would deem to be a poor betting slate.
That isn't because there aren't credible options looming — especially when you dive into a name like Russell Henley — but my biggest concern is how the American side should have very predictable lineups.
You don't have to look further than Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler/Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa/Player TBD being rolled out so frequently that it'll take an implosion from within the squad for one of those names not to be the top scorer.
The names above aren't just the best players; they'll also be guaranteed the most matchups for the week.
I just don't see where the value sits in any area of that sector, since you're likely better off betting your favorite high-end options in a matchup versus tying up funds in a five-way coin-flip.
Instead, that sentiment likely holds true when we switch over to the International team. There are so many unknown variables regarding how Weir will construct his lineups that it opens up most of the International's markets when we decide to take a few shots down the board.
That answer is valuable on its own, but let's not forget that the Presidents Cup allows captains to match who they want their team to face in individual battles.
We don't see that at the Ryder Cup since the draws are random. That could favor some players further down the board if Jim Furyk uses his high-end teams to take on the Hideki Matsuyama or Sungjae Im partnerships.
Obviously, the unknown is that we don't know who's going to be paired with who on Weir's side, but the open nature of this whole equation did push me in the direction of Corey Conners 9/1 and Byeong Hun An 16/1 to be the "International Top Scorer."
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