It was a disastrous day for the Internationals on Thursday. The team kept all five matchups close but couldn't secure any points, resulting in a 0-5 deficit.
While my model technically favored the USA in all five day-one battles, the International squad's failure to secure anything out of any matchups has now propelled America into being -1600 heading into day two.
Here is where my model graded the five matchups for reference.
Day One Results
Jason Day/Byeong Hun An vs. Xander Schauffele/Tony Finau
I was indifferent about the Day/Hun An pairing. I thought each could have been placed with multiple different players. They just ran into an extremely strong American side.
There are a lot of mistakes to talk about. This isn't one of the glaring errors.
Result: Schauffele/Finau 1 Up Win
Adam Scott/Min Woo Lee vs. Collin Morikawa/Sahith Theegala
This might be a controversial take, but I preferred Min Woo Lee in an alternate shot format. His distance, long iron proximity and short game would have played well in multiple pairings. A lot of his par-five scoring got mitigated in four-ball.
Consider this one of many examples where I believe Mike Weir has made too many small mistakes.
Result: Morikawa/Theegala 1 Up Win
Tom Kim/Sungjae Im vs. Russell Henley/Scottie Scheffler
As I said about Min Woo Leea second ago, Tom Kim would have played better as an alternate shot target.
In fairness, any pairing against Scheffler/Henley would have resulted in trouble for whatever International side you want to mention, but I wasn't a fan of what Weir did here.
Result: Scheffler/Henley 3&2 Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout/Taylor Pendrith vs. Wyndham Clark/Keegan Bradley
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is ranked 24th out of 24 players this week in Birdie or Better Percentage. Why would you play him in any best-ball format?
Taylor Pendrith likely deserved better in a very winnable matchup against a Clark/Bradley squad that had some issues of their own.
Result: Clark/Bradley 1 Up Win
Hideki Matsuyama/Corey Conners vs. Patrick Cantlay/Sam Burns
Matsuyama and Conners were a powerful pairing on the International side.
This battle was nearly 50/50 either way, but it landed with the same result as every other matchup.
I'd consider this being on the wrong end of variance, although too many lineup mistakes plagued this team overall.
Result: Cantlay/Burns 2&1 Win
Day Two Predictions
*** Please note that all "Overall Rank" totals take into account the partner each golfer is playing with for the day.
You can also shop around and find different totals elsewhere.
Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (-200) vs. Hideki Matsuyama/Sungjae Im (+165)
My model did favor the Schauffele/Cantlay side on Friday, but this +165 total on Matsuyama/Im was way too much of an overcorrection.
If you are just looking to pick who wins, I do lean Schauffele/Cantlay. However, these are two of the better teams in action tomorrow if you are hoping to grab a little value on the slate.
Prediction: I am taking the value on Im/Matsuyama. Just please note that this bet is under 50% to win.
Sahith Theegala/Collin Morikawa (-165) vs. Adam Scott/Taylor Pendrith (+140)
I thought the price in this matchup seemed fair. My model had this 61/39 when diving into projected win equity on both sides.
It wouldn't shock me to see Scott/Pendrith pull a mini upset, but I see no point in throwing a dart when the price is closer to being proper when laying the juice than taking it.
Prediction: Theegala/Morikawa
Brian Harman/Max Homa (-125) vs. Jason Day/Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+105)
Four players in my model on the American side decreased the projected win equity of matchups any time they were thrown into battle. Those options were Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Brian Harman and Keegan Bradley.
While someone like Sahith Theegala has had that mitigated completely with his pairing next to Collin Morikawa,
pairing two of those names together will naturally form one of the weakest pairings the USA squad can deploy.
I am not jumping for joy when looking into this International pairing, but I thought Jason Day was the best player teeing it up on Friday for these four golfers.
Prediction: Day/Bezuidenhout
Wyndham Clark/Tony Finau (-160) vs. Corey Conners/Mackenzie Hughes (+135)
I wanted Mike Weir to give Corey Conners the pairing of Adam Scott in an alternate shot because of the way they teamed up together, but Mackenzie Hughes' recent ball-striking could play better than my model projects.
My pre-tournament bet of Conners to be the 'Top International Scorer' will greatly need this to be a win, although I have very little lean one way or the other because I also sort of like the Clark/Finau pairing.
Jim Furyk has run a masterclass in strategy. It will get tested on Friday against some better pairings, but I have very little to say on the negative front, especially since two of Bradley, Harman and Homa had to be placed in action on Friday. Pairing them together and hoping for the best is not a bad strategy whatsoever.
Prediction: None
Scottie Scheffler/Russell Henley (-210) vs. Byeong Hun An/Si Woo Kim (+175)
As much as I would love to take what I deem to be a generous +175 price on Byeong Hun An and Si Woo Kim, I have no interest in fading a Scheffler/Henley pairing in any capacity.
Don't be shocked if this ends up being the matchup of the day.
