The Presidents Cup is at The Royal Montreal Golf Club in Canada this weekend for a battle between the United States and the International side.
The U.S. has dominated the competition as of late, winning the last nine events, including the 2007 event at this very same course.
With that in mind, we have a 2024 Presidents Cup preview, including our experts' picks, predictions and best bets.
2024 Presidents Cup Picks: Our Best Bets
Betting Favorite We’re Backing
Matthew Gannon: USA to Win Event (-250)
Tony Sartori: USA to Win Event (-250)
Once again, the Presidents Cup will be the Americans’ to lose. The U.S. is 12-1 all-time in this event and hasn't lost in over a quarter-century.
The gap between these two sides is perhaps as wide as ever, considering the current state of both Scottie Scheffler’s and Xander Schauffele’s play this season.
They posted two of the best analytical seasons of the modern era, but the Americans aren’t only top-heavy, as you could argue that the U.S. has five or six players better than the International team's top guy.
Spencer Aguiar: High-End American Players
While I'm not necessarily looking to get down any exposure in the 'Top American Scorer' market, it's hard for me to believe that we see someone not in a Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay, Scheffler/Sam Burns or Collin Morikawa pairings to take down the honors of being the top American scorer.
That isn't because the talent isn't there for it to occur, but it would take a full-blown implosion at the top because of the sheer volume of matches the top players will be getting.
If you want to approach a market like that, you're better off taking some shots on the volatility and unknown variables with the International side.
Joshua Perry: USA to Win Event (-250)
They haven’t lost since I was in middle school, so I'm not going to bet against them now.
Best Long Shot
Matthew Gannon: Byeong Hun An Top Point Scorer (+4000)
There's no reason why An should be the longest in the market to lead the Presidents Cup in scoring. He's an extremely streaky golfer and a man who's not afraid to make birdies in bunches.
Although this course may lend itself to shorter hitters rather than bombers, An is an excellent total driver who will keep his ball in play.
Tony Sartori: Russell Henley Top Point Scorer (+4000)
If you want to take any American in the point scorer market, the smarter play is to receive the larger payout in the overall top point scorer market rather than the U.S.-specific one.
The Americans are heavily favored to win anyways and haven’t lost this event in over a quarter-century.
Out of all the fliers to take in this market, I think the best value is on Russell Henley at 40/1. He is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated golfers in the world and knows how to step up when facing elite competition.
Henley finished T4 at the TOUR Championship, fifth at The Open Championship and T7 at the U.S. Open.
Furthermore, Royal Montreal profiles exceptionally well for Henley, considering that he's, perhaps, the most accurate driver of the golf ball in this field, while also maintaining elite iron and green play.
Spencer Aguiar: Byeong Hun An (+1600) or Corey Conners (+900) Top International Scorer
There's a chance An sits on Thursday, but this is the volatility I was discussing when trying to back the unknown variables.
Also, if there's a player who has hidden potential to play all five rounds on this side, look no further than Corey Conners. The fact that he's competing on home soil and possesses driving acumen that can compete with the Americans proves he can win this bet.
Player To Fade
Matthew Gannon: Max Homa
Tony Sartori: Sungjae Im
Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman/Sahith Theegala (USA) or Tom Kim (International)
Joshua Perry: Max Homa/Min Woo Lee
Presidents Cup Preview: Experts' Betting Strategy
Matthew Gannon: The team that's able to spike with its irons at the highest rate will come out on top. I'm looking to target elite middle iron players. Outside of that, keeping the ball in play will be extremely important. By no means is this course narrow, but it'll be guarded by trees. If you're spraying the ball off the tee, pack your bags and head home.
Tony Sartori: It’s all about accuracy this week at Royal Montreal Golf Club, both off the tee and on the approach. This course has been utilized multiple times, hosting both the 2007 Presidents Cup, as well as the 2014 Canadian Open.
Both those events prioritized accuracy, and that priority is going to be inflated this week following the recent renovations to Royal Montreal. The fairways are even narrower, while the rough will play extremely thick to further penalize misses.
This week, I’m looking for driving accuracy, strokes gained on the approach and recent form to narrow down my favorite bets.
Spencer Aguiar: If we can identify the unsung hero of the International team for the week, we can locate some values in particular markets.
Most of the public will tell you that the USA is running away with this contest (which is possibly true). However, markets have already accounted for that narrative, with any long shot wager being less enticing because of the sheer volume that we'll see from the stars on that side.
My model thought the Internationals had four of the six longest drivers, 10 of the 17 best total drivers and nine of the 17 best players when approaching the green from a missed fairway.
Essentially, that suggests that the true strength of the International side is driving across the board. But the issue is trying to pinpoint who that hidden star will be for the week.
I can more easily predict who the stars will be for the USA, but so can the market.
Joshua Perry: We haven’t seen this course in 10 years, but the last time we were here, it was a battle between Tim Clark and Jim Furyk. That suggests that you don’t need to bomb it here.
So, that’s the style of player I’m targeting, especially on the International side, where there isn’t nearly the star power of the Americans.
The odds are more level as far as the team props go because it’s a lot harder to gauge who'll actually play well and end up maximizing their sessions.
Presidents Cup Picks
Matthew Gannon: Russell Henley Top Captain's Pick Scorer (+1600, DraftKings)
Henley is a golfer who played extremely consistent all season long and is a very deserving candidate to make this team. He has the game to really excel on a course like this. He'll keep the ball in play off the tee at a very high rate and is elite with his middle irons.
On paper, this is a perfect golf course for Henley, and there's no reason he should be at the bottom of the odds in this market.
Henley has serious dog and will surely make the most of this opportunity.
Tony Sartori: Brian Harman Top USA Rookie (+225, DraftKings)
While Harman was one of the most controversial captain’s picks, I believe it was the right one due to course fit. Harman should theoretically thrive at Royal Montreal, a venue that forgives a lack of distance while rewarding accuracy.
That benefits Harman perhaps more than anyone else in this field, given his typical lack of distance off the tee but consistent ability to find fairways. Throw in an improving iron game and a strong putter, and Harman should be able to lead in this four-man market.
The only golfer with shorter odds in this market than Harman is Wyndham Clark, who doesn't profile well for this venue.
He's below the Tour average in driving accuracy and is coming off a missed cut at the Procore Championship against a field that didn’t feature nearly the level of talent or course difficulty that he'll see this week.
Spencer Aguiar: USA To Win Between 1-3 (+380) + USA To Win Between 4-6 (+380)
I ran two simulations to account for the unknown variables of not knowing the daily matchups.
The first way I ran it was (No Optimal Consideration Of Teams). That just means any random player could get selected for a partnership, with the caveat that it didn't blindly pick any two random golfers and leave out a top American like Scheffler or Schauffele.
The return there yielded an expected win expectation of +4.2 points for the USA.
The second way I ran the data included each team producing the optimal daily lineup. If that total didn't make the USA more likely to win, something would've been very wrong in the data, but we did see the USA climb to a +6.84-point advantage.
While some of those totals will start pushing us toward a losing ticket with the way I structured the wager, the thing I found most interesting was how every time the USA played Theegala, Homa, Harman or Keegan Bradley, we saw the edge begin to shrink.
Think of this as one bet at +140 since one of the sides is guaranteed to lose. However, there's a home-field advantage that will be prevalent and wasn't included in my build, plus the unknown variable of how every USA error weighed more heavily than what it did for the International side.
I don't think there will ultimately be enough firepower for the Internationals to win, but there are paths for them to find more success than people anticipate.
Joshua Perry: Russell Henley Top Rookie (+850, DraftKings)
This is a six player group in which Henley is against Clark, Theegala, Mackenzie Hughes, Lee and Harman.
For me, Henley has the best combination of form and fit, so it’ll come down to matches for him. Hopefully, he’s able to get some early success with a pairing and the U.S. just rides the hot hand.
He clearly has the worst odds of the bunch here, but I don’t see anything that suggests he won’t get close to the same opportunities as the rest of these players.
