2024 Procore Championship Data-Driven DFS Buys & Sells
$10,000+ Range
Buy: Wyndham Clark ($10,400)
I've discussed this throughout the week, but I thought three things happened when I compared Wyndham Clark's price to Sahith Theegala's.
- Theegala's result at the Tour Championship helped propel him past Clark.
- Theegala's victory last year at this venue helped to cement that answer.
- Clark has shown a lack of upside at Silverado.
None of this is meant to be a deterrent away from Theegala, because I do believe he's the second-best player in this field, but it did feel as if Clark's recent form and projected data for this week's venue got skewed in the wrong direction because of his sub-par form at this course.
I talked about that course history factor on this week's Links + Locks podcast here at Action Network and how Clark's trajectory follows what we saw from Max Homa before he transcended into a top golfer in the world.
Homa posted finishes of 39th, missed cut, 60th and 62nd in the four years before going back-to-back. We see the same overall form from Clark, who's gone 43rd, 30th, missed cut and missed cut in his past four. But it's essential to remember that this isn't the same golfer as his last appearance at the course in 2022.
Clark transcended into one of the best players in the world in 2023 and will carry first-place grades in my model for Distance + Short-Iron Proximity, Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Strokes Gained on Poa, Expected Scoring on Easy Courses and Projected Overall Scoring.
That's a recipe for someone about to smell the sweet aroma in Napa Valley.
Sell: Max Homa ($10,000)
DFS is all about finding leverage advantages in your builds. I actually thought that Homa's $10,000 price tag would create that contrarian nature for a golfer who I previously noted has dominated at this course, with two victories and a seventh-place finish over the last three years.
But I was very surprised to see Homa still projected as a top-10 owned player on the slate at this heightened price.
I don't necessarily think he burns lineups to the ground, but his nine consecutive finishes outside the top 20 on the leaderboard does feel tough to stomach when we can grab Maverick McNealy at a cheaper price tag and nearly the same ownership projection.
$9,000 Range
Buy: Maverick McNealy ($9,400)
In my mind, there are three pronounced ways to gain an advantage over the field at Silverado Resort.
You don't necessarily need to have all three at your disposal to find success. However, possessing two of the qualities when diving into stellar Poa putting, adequate distance and quality short-iron proximity will very quickly create opportunities at this unique "resort-style" track.
McNealy does lack the approach play you would want to see, but his combination of length and Poa putting was a one-two punch that placed him behind only Clark, Min Woo Lee and Justin Suh when re-configuring the data to feature an enhanced importance of those two areas of the game.
I understand the concerns some have about McNealy's non-existent win equity in the past, but an easy-scoring track that's placed in California on Poa greens has always been the blueprint for his first victory to become a reality.
Sell: There are players I'm lower on than consensus, but I don't have any massive takes from this group since most of the golfers I would've wanted to fade are turning into contrarian options to consider at the right percentage.
$8,000 Range
Buy: Mac Meissner ($8,000)
Of all the golfers listed at $8,000 (or higher), my model didn't have anyone more underpriced on the slate this week than Mac Meissner.
Meissner graded third in Weighted Scoring when morphing the metrics into a course-specific outlook for Silverado, and he also landed fifth when combining the two categories I keep discussing of distance and short-iron proximity.
Here's the entire top five in that area:
Sell: Harris English ($8,800)
My biggest concern with Harris English is that he not only graded 115th in this field for Strokes Gained Tee To Green when using an unweighted expectation, but he also only climbed two spots to 113th when I took the data and tried to make it fit Silverado Resort.
There's a course history narrative playing out here for English's price, which did make him a top-35 player for safety on the board in my model.
Nonetheless, the statistical data landing outside the top 75 diminished any intrigue that may have been possessed for a golfer who will be lower owned on the slate.
$7,000 Range
I will split this section into two popular buys and two contrarian buys to consider.
Popular Buys: Rico Hoey ($7,700), Patrick Fishburn ($7,500)
Contrarian Buys: K.H Lee ($7,900), Sam Stevens ($7,800)
It took a slight alteration of Sam Stevens' data to get him this high in my model, but here were the 10 highest-ranked players in my model from the $7,000 range.
There's going to be a lot of playability from that entire group, but Hoey, Fishburn, Stevens and Lee will be the spots where I'm much higher than consensus.
Sell: Lee Hodges ($7,200)
There may be some interest in backing a top-100 golfer who isn't that far removed from quality form, but Hodges graded as the worst value on the board at his $7,200 price tag.
I understand there's a lot of volatility down in this range as things stand, but I would rather take my dart throws on players with a higher upside.
$6,000 Range
Buy: Vincent Whaley ($6,900)
I had less than 10 players crack the top 60 of my model, meaning we will theoretically get a lot of missed cuts from this section.
However, a name like Vincent Whaley did present a better ceiling than most of his counterparts.
My model ranked Whaley as an expected climber over his baseline for both proximity and driving totals when turning the metrics into an outlook toward Silverado.
Will that be enough to make the weekend? We'll see. But the upside starts becoming more relevant for him than most. You don't have to look any further than his top-25 grade for DraftKings points this season.
Sell: You can dive into my model to find some of that information.
In general, the $6,000 range is always a mix of random upside and low-floor options.
