We will dive into my Procore Championship statistical breakdown soon, but here are the 1-142 standings (Erik Barnes/C.T. Pan withdrawals) for each of the four main statistical categories through the opening two rounds of the event.
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee![]()
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
One significant takeaway from that list is that only Michael Thorbjornsen, J.J. Spaun and Justin Lowerare inside the top 50 of all four categories.
You'd also get an onslaught of names when taking in any around-the-green and putting production. Options such as Rico Hoey, Chan Kim, Sahith Theegala, Keith Mitchell and Corey Conners all enter the mix.
Baseline Putt + Around The Green Score
This category aims to merge actual ball-striking statistics with baseline short-game totals.
This is important is because it can highlight the players who are playing the best with their predictable numbers and are due for positive regression with the more volatile portions of their game.
Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard
Note: I only ran for players who should be inside the top 65 of the field. The list will include any golfer who made or missed the cut. The list will condense further to only look into top 50 rated players in my head-to-head model.
Andrew Putnam was the only golfer in the field who underachieved his expected position on the leaderboard by more than 21 spots but still made the cut.
Most of the slight underavhievers in Chan Kim, Rico Hoey, Sahith Theegala, J.J. Spaun and Matt Kuchar should be viewed as the favorites in this field
Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard
We talk about this often, but the varying degrees of overachievement will tell more of the story than the rudimentary outlook of this section.
Golfers such as Brendon Todd, Charley Hoffman, Sam Stevens and Ben Silverman still cracked the top 50 of my head-to-head model and likely are names I am not actively looking to oppose on Saturday.
The rest of the section would be my prime candidates if we can find the correct matchups.
Who Will Win the 2024 Procore Championship?
I was fortunate enough to grab this at 40-1 pre-tournament, but my model does have J.J. Spaun neck and neck with pre-tournament favorite Sahith Theegala.
As I noted above, Spaun joined Michael Thorbjornsen and Justin Lower as the only golfers in this field to gain a minimum of 0.75 strokes in all four critical metrics over two rounds. That total helped propel him next to Chan Kim as one of only two golfers in this field to grade in the top 15 over both rounds for ball-striking.
There is a reason Spaun produced back-to-back top-nine finishes before his month-long hiatus because of the FedExCup Championship, and this trending putter that placed him 21st over his last 24 rounds has only continued popping here in Napa Valley.
