It's hard to believe the TOUR Championship was two weeks ago, and we are already starting a new season on the PGA TOUR.
Well, technically, this is the start of the 2024 fall season. Golf has the shortest offseason of all the major sports, and it's not even close. Consider how long we wait for football to restart after the Super Bowl.
The event has a new sponsor this year, but it is still the same tournament in Napa Valley that we have come to know and love. It will again be held at Silverado Resort and Spa, a par-72 course measuring 7,123 yards.
We've seen very different types of golfers win here over the years. The last five winners include Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, and Kevin Tway. The winning score has been at least 17-under in each of the past four tournaments.
There doesn't seem to be a super strong course fit at Silverado. Driving accuracy doesn't matter much (likely because everyone consistently misses these 24-to-27-yard wide fairways), but the course isn't long enough to benefit the bombers. The greens are below average in size and feature a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. We know golfers have contrasting thoughts on poa annua greens, so targeting those comfortable with them isn't the worst idea this week.
My bankroll challenge didn't go as well as I had hoped last season. Rather than running that back, we will focus exclusively on outright bets for the fall season. Perhaps I'll come up with another challenge at the start of 2025.
Let's dive into this week's picks!
Wyndham Clark +1200 (DraftKings)
There was much chatter about Wyndham Clark's form over the summer. While he had a bad stretch, the golf media tends to overreact.
Guess what? Golf is tough.
Clark is no longer in a slump. He's finished T-14 or better in six of his past seven starts, including the Olympics.
He doesn't have the best track record at Silverado, but he hasn't played here since 2022, when he was a much different golfer.
He's the class of the field and is priced fairly at +1200. While he's certainly not a West Coast specialist, it's worth noting that he's already picked up two career wins in California (U.S. Open at LACC and the AT&T Pebble Beach).
Maverick McNealy +2200 (FanDuel)
Maverick McNealy was born in California and played his college golf at Stanford, so he's very comfortable putting on poa annua greens.
After dealing with some injuries in the last few years, he's pieced together a strong 2024 campaign, posting six top-15 finishes while missing the cut in just three of 20 total starts.
Across the past year, McNealy ranks top-10 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, around the green and putting. His iron play can be hit or miss, but he's gained at least 1.5 strokes on approach in five of his past nine events.
He nearly won this event in 2021 when he finished runner-up to Max Homa.
J.J. Spaun +4000 (BetMGM)
J.J. Spaun had an extremely rough first six months of the year. In his first 14 starts, he didn't have a single top-30 finish.
Something seems to have clicked with his game, as he's made five straight cuts with three top-10 finishes.
More importantly, everything is finally working together. He's gained over 20 combined strokes on approach across his past four events, and he's gained strokes off the tee, around the green and on the green during the stretch.
Spaun has an excellent track record on the West Coast and finished T-11th at this event last season. He has only one career win, but perhaps he'll add another this week.
