2024 Procore Championship Round 4 DFS Picks, Predictions
Here are all the players who graded out as having a positive value for Round 4 when comparing DraftKings' price to my 'Head-to-Head Totals' and DraftKings' price to 'Projected Scoring' after using baseline short-game metrics to recalculate a leaderboard.
The two caveats to this list are that every player had to be a top-25 scorer in my recalculated model. That also included any player within a margin of error. If someone didn't fit those criteria marks and graded outside the top 25 of the field for "H2H Rank or outside the top 60 pre-event," their name got removed from within the filter.
***John Keefer also fits when I manually alter for the lack of data on him.
I would have varying takes on the strength of these players when it comes to ownership, but that group will make up a substantial percentage of my Sunday player pool.
We don't have time to discuss each of those names, but here is a more in-depth look at a few of my favorite targets in round four.
Buys At The Top: Sahith Theegala ($11,100), Luke Clanton ($10,200)
Most public lineups will naturally try to combine Corey Conners or Sahith Theegala with Patton Kizzire because of where they stand on the leaderboard. While I have no natural qualms about deploying Conners for builds tomorrow since he was one of the values that showed in my model and will possess some semblance of ownership in my player pool, I tend to like the idea of going more aggressive at the top with Theegala or forfeiting some of my win equity by taking what will surely be an under-owned Luke Clanton.
Clanton was graded as one of the more substantial underachievers on the board after projecting fifth in my "Expected Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green Score." That category takes actual ball-striking data and merges in baseline totals from someone's short game.
I don't think Kizzire is a straight trap since my model does believe he is better than 50% to win, but his 11.35 strokes of overachievement on the board should have him 18th if he received his baseline short-game stats. Gaining +8.4 strokes with the putter over three days will do that to your total.
Buys In The Middle: Mackenzie Hughes ($9,100), Matt Kuchar ($8,600)
As I said, I don't necessarily have a significant opinion on whether Patton Kizzire is going to capture the title, but my choice for the name to dethrone Kizzire would likely be Mackenzie Hughes after the Canadian lapped the field over three days when diving into my recalculated leaderboard.
Here are the top 15 projected scorers in my sheet:
Hughes' nearly three-shot advantage is one of the more significant totals from within my math after three rounds. You will also notice Matt Kuchar lingering on that list and in a prime position for another quality payday.
You are not forced into any specific build. However, the mixing-and-matching of Theegala, Conners and Hughes would be my direction when trying to oppose Kizzire by grabbing win equity elsewhere.
Most of that exposure will come from Hughes or Theegala.
Cheaper Buys: Ben Kohles ($7,500)
I'd expect a name like Justin Lower to be popular (and for a good reason) after ranking inside the top-10 of the leaderboard and checking all the boxes, but instead of doubling down on the obvious, let's add an outside-the-box option since I would prefer for this article to possess a contrarian nature at its core.
Kohles imploded on Saturday to the tune of a five-over day that saw him drop from contention to outside the top 50. That performance is always unsettling when trying to make lineups for the final day of the week, but Kohles' expected output should have been inside the top half of the field if it weren't for him losing negative-6.05 shots with the flat stick through 18 holes.
My model ranked him 18th pre-event for putting on similar green complexes. After gaining just under two shots to the field combined through his opening two rounds before this Saturday meltdown, we get a buy-low spot presented to us in round four at minimal ownership.
