How do you jump ahead of the field through three rounds when you aren't striking the ball all that well? You gain 10.72 strokes with the putter to overcome sub-par metrics in the more predictable ball-striking areas.
I always like taking that profile of Robert MacIntyre on in the outright market since Sunday pressure can do a lot to a golfer when most of their success stems from something that is sure to see a regression when push comes to shove.
I don't know if we necessarily have a clear-cut option since my model does like a handful of these targets in round four to spoil MacIntyre's party, but let's talk a little about the one outright wager I am punching for Sunday that may be a little against the grain to dethrone the man who is favored over the rest of the field combined.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Prediction
I've been saying all week that my ideal outcome once the event starts is to find a way to live bet either Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood or Ben Griffin. Unfortunately, those three would have been the correct choices to start with over the route of Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala and Chandler Phillips if I could have flipped things correctly from the beginning.
I am not someone who ever finds myself with a ton of outright exposure when you compare my standard structure to the rest of the space. A little more pre-tournament aggression could have put us in a better spot entering Sunday, but Griffin has continued to land as the outlier name on this slate because of how strong my model graded him for Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
I talked on the Links + Locks podcast about how the market watched Griffin miss two straight cuts at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge and likely overcorrected itself for a golfer who had posted six top-39 finishes before that mishap. That has hopefully led to a pretty smooth-sailing 60th or better wager at bet365 for our 'Best Bets' article over in the Action Network file that gets posted every Tuesday afternoon, and I am going to double-down one more time on Griffin at 14/1 to win this event and hope that his top-10 profile within my math allows him to find the winner's circle for the first time in his career.
Only seven players in this field have gained a minimum of 0.39 strokes to the field for all four critical strokes gained metrics over the opening three rounds. Naturally, Burns and Fleetwood have been impossible to shake, with the two landing within that territory. However, Griffin's one-shot lead over the two was enough to push him marginally above each when trying to find the best value on the board for Sunday
Sunday Prediction: Ben Griffin (+1400) — bet365 or BetMGM
| Player | Odds | Risk | Win |
| Ben Griffin | 14 | 0.36 | 5.04 |
