Here's everything you need to know about 2024 RBC Heritage first-round leader picks — our expert's three FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.
With the Masters in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's RBC Heritage. Harbour Town Golf Links (synonymously known as Hilton Head) hosts once again, which it has done annually since 1969.
Hilton Head is a par-71, 7,213-yard track designed by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus that features some of the smallest greens on Tour and thus rewards ball-strikers and quality approach shots.
Find my 2024 RBC Heritage first-round leader picksbelow.
2024 RBC Heritage First-Round Leader (FRL) Picks
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
Scottie Scheffler +1100 (FanDuel | 0.17 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 10:30 a.m. ET
That brings us to Scottie Scheffler, who tees off in the 14th of 35 groups on Thursday.
Simply put, I'm done with not having Scheffler on my betting card in some capacity for the rest of the season. I'm not even going to dive into the numbers because we all know that he leads the Tour in pretty much every ball-striking statistic or metric that is quantified.
Scheffler is not only the best golfer on the planet, but he now has the potential to reach peak-Tiger level of golf when you look at his success and strokes gained metrics. 11-1 in the FRL market is a far bigger payout than his +400 pre-tournament odds, and I think there is extra value on him in this market this week because he could leave at the drop of a hat during any of the rounds to be with his wife for the birth of their first child.
Wyndham Clark +3300 (BetRivers | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 10:40 a.m. ET
Wyndham Clark tees off in the group immediately following Scheffler, so he will also possess the morning-wave advantage. I'm not sure what Clark has done to find himself this low on the oddsboard, but this is the reigning U.S. Open champion and one of the world's best golfers.
I estimate that recency bias has inflated this line just because Clark missed the cut at the Masters last week, but Augusta National was giving everyone a tremendously difficult time, and a lot of big names failed to make the weekend. If anyone can rebound and produce a "get right" round on Thursday, it would be Clark.
He has gained strokes on Approach in seven of his past eight tournaments, posting three top-two finishes over that stretch, including his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in another Signature Event.
Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (BetRivers | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 10:50 a.m. ET
Once again moving on to the next group, Tommy Fleetwood will round out our FRL bets this week. I always prefer taking Fleetwood in the FRL market over his full-tournament odds because the guy is just cursed at this point — there is no other explanation as to why he has yet to win on American soil.
Okay, maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but Fleetwood absolutely possesses the tools to take down the field on Thursday. He is in great form with a third-place finish at last week's Masters and a seventh-place finish the week prior at the Valero Texas Open.
Fleetwood gained strokes on Approach in each of those events, which will be the key to success at Hilton Head. He has also made the weekend here in three of his four career appearances, finishing inside the top 25 in all three of those outings.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 RBC Heritage, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Rory McIlroy Outright Winner (+1200 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- Wyndham Clark Outright Winner (+3000 at FanDuel) – 0.33 Units
- Corey Conners Outright Winner (+5000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Denny McCarthy Outright Winner (+8000 at FanDuel) – 0.27 Units
- Lucas Glover Top 10 (+750 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Nick Taylor Top 10 (+850 at FanDuel) – 0.20 Units
- Scottie Scheffler FRL (+1100 at FanDuel) – 0.17 Units
- Tommy Fleetwood FRL (+2800 at BetRivers) – 0.14 Units
- Wyndham Clark FRL (+3300 at BetRivers) – 0.11 Units
