While it's sad to think we have to wait another 52 weeks for another Masters, this last one was special. From Tiger Woods breaking the all-time consecutive cut made streak to Scottie Scheffler running away from the field on Sunday, it was a tremendous way to kick off the major championship season.
More importantly, it was a great week for our bets. We hit Scottie Scheffler to win (+450), Xander Schauffele to finish in the top 10 (+160), Byeong Hun An to finish in the top 20 (+350) and Tiger to make the cut (+120). We had $100 in play and brought back $296, so we are inching closer to our goal of being profitable for the season.
We now turn our attention to our 2024 RBC Heritage predictions.
This is an event that any type of golfer can win. Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye design that measures just over 7,200 yards. It's a par-71 with narrow tree-lined fairways, doglegs and water hazards lurking on every hole. Given the doglegs and the overhanging tree limbs, it's important to put tee shots on the correct side of the fairway.
This is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour that does not give an advantage to bombers, which is somewhat of a Dye specialty.
The greens at Harbour Town are extremely small (3,400 square feet) and difficult to hit on average. They feature Bermudagrass that is overseeded with Poa trivialis, which is the same type of grass that we have seen often here in the early spring.
With distance not being a factor and with tiny greens, the two most important statistics this week are Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. This same skill set is needed at courses like Colonial Country Club, Waialae Country Club, Sedgefield Country Club and the Copperhead Course at Innisborok Resort. If you are looking for comp courses, those are a good place to start.
I should note that this is a Signature Event with a field of only 69 golfers. Unlike some other small-field Signature Events earlier this season like The Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational, the RBC Heritage does not feature a cut. This means all golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds barring a withdrawal.
The big storyline heading into the week is Scheffler, who will be having his first child in a matter of weeks. After winning the Masters, there's a decent chance he doesn't even tee it up by Thursday. Even if he does play this week, I am fine looking elsewhere on the betting board. He can't win in four of his last five starts, right? Right?
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +$196
- Current bankroll: $672
Let's dive into this week's picks.
2024 RBC Heritage Predictions
RBC Heritage Outright Predictions
Cameron Young to Win +2800 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $580
Cameron Young seems to get better as the golf courses get more difficult. After another solid showing at the Masters, he now has five top-nine finishes in just 11 starts in the majors. He might not seem like a great fit for Harbour Town, but he nearly won here in his debut in 2022.
While his driver is arguably his biggest weapon, I'm willing to bet on Young at any course that requires a lot of mid-to-long iron shots. In 2023, 46% of approach shots hit at this event came from 150-200 yards. While he's still searching for his first win on Tour, he's put himself in contention more times than I can count. More importantly, he's a proven two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Similar to Stephan Jaeger, who also won multiple times on the Korn Ferry Tour, a few weeks back, it's only a matter of time before Young claims his maiden victory on the PGA Tour.
Wyndham Clark to Win +3000 (Caesars)
Bet $20 to Pay $620
There are a lot of reasons to like Clark. We'll start with the fact that he's +3000 in a limited field. Had he not missed the cut at the Masters, he would likely be in the +2000 range. He won at Pebble Beach earlier this year, which was another Signature Event and another course that features very small greens. He also finished solo second in two other Signature Events in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship.
On top of all that, he won at a Carolina course (Quail Hollow) last year. Honestly, we might be able to spin last week's missed cut into a positive. He didn't have to grind out two difficult rounds on the weekend, so he should be motivated coming into an event that he has played each of the last six years.
Justin Thomas to Win +5500 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to Pay $1,120
The books put the JT bait out there and got me hook, line and sinker. It was painful watching him go double, double, bogey, double to miss the cut at the Masters last week. It was his third poor showing in a row.
While the form leaves much to be desired, he was in the +1500 to +2000 in similar fields only a couple of months ago. If you zoom out a little bit, he has still tied for 12th or better in six of his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour. I love the way his game shapes up for Harbour Town, as his two biggest strengths are on approach and around the green.
He's played this event six times and has three top-11 finishes. I'm willing to bet on his talent at big odds this week.
RBC Heritage Placement Predictions
Shane Lowry Top 10 +360 (DraftKings)
Bet $20 to Pay $92
The next two golfers are ones whom I was going to bet outright, but their numbers were dashed before I got the chance to bet on them.
We'll start with Shane Lowry, who was much better than his result suggested at the Masters last week. He struck the ball extremely well but lost eight strokes putting. If he was just even with the field when it came to putting, he would have finished in the top 10.
His iron play has been excellent all year, and he's underrated around the green. I like his chances this week at a course where he's finished in the top 10 in four of his last seven appearances.
Russell Henley Top 20 +115 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to Pay $43
Henley opened at +5500 to win this week, but that has been bet down to +3500.
I was still tempted but decided to roll with Clark and Young in that range instead. I'll settle for a top 20 from Henley at a course that lines up extremely well for his strengths. He's an accurate driver of the ball, he's an elite iron player, he's strong around the greens, and he's been putting the lights out this year.
He's finished in the top 20 in eight of his last 13 starts on the PGA Tour, and keep in mind, there are only 70 golfers in the field this week. He's finished in the top 20 at this event in two of the last three years.
Let's keep it rolling this week.
