The PGA Tour features a rare Signature Event on a "club-down" course this week at the 2024 RBC Heritage, which means this is an opportunity for some longshots to contend at Harbour Town Golf Links. Scottie Scheffler headlines the field in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina this week
Find three RBC Heritage longshots and sleeper picks, including two golfers at 120-1 or longer, below.
2024 RBC Heritage Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Brian Harman 55-1 (FanDuel)
We may be stretching the definition of a longshot here, but Harman is greatly mispriced at outside the top-25 favorites at Harbour Town this weekend, making him my favorite sleeper pick in the field because of his course history, track record playing after major championships and his shotmaking being accentuated by this Pete Dye design.
Harman has fared extremely well at Harbour Town in the past. He has played this event nine consecutive seasons and is fourth in the field in Total Strokes Gained at this event (+31.85).
He tied for seventh last year and has finished 28th, 13th, 35th and seventh in his last four appearances at the RBC Heritage.
This event occurring the week after the Masters could make things interesting for many golfers. Many of the biggest names are accustomed to taking a week off, but historically Brian Harman has excelled after a Major appearance.
Registration is live for the best North Carolina sports betting apps! Register for bonus offers in the Tar Heel State.
Harman is ranked first in this field in Strokes Gained the week after a Major, and in 18 total events following golf's biggest championships, he has finished T10 or better a whopping seven times, which is more than two more than anyone else in the field this week.
Harbour Town is a Pete Dye course, which means shot-making will be at a premium. Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well here, and it is likely we will see them near the top of the leaderboard. Harman ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye courses (+1.89 per round) over the past 36 rounds.
Harman missed the cut last week at the Masters but was in great form prior to that, finishing T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T2 at THE PLAYERS Championship, with the latter being held at a Dye design in TPC Sawgrass (Stadium).
Add it all up, and 55-1 is a steal for a golfer I would price among the top 15 at this event given his history at the RBC Heritage.
Tom Hoge 120-1 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge will be well rested this weekend as he did not play the Masters last week, but he is still in great form.
Hoge has been one of the most pleasant surprises on the PGA Tour this year. The veteran has made nine straight cuts and has four top-20 finishes, including two in the top 10, in his last seven starts.
With the second-smallest greens on Tour and plenty of overhanging trees, approach shots and overall tee to green play are what matter most this weekend. Consequently, it's not imperative to be a bomber off the tee to contend at Harbour Town.
Enter Hoge, who has been sensational recently from tee to green.
The whole world knows how stellar Scottie Scheffler has been over the last two months, but Hoge is tied with Scheffler in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach over their last 24 rounds (+1.27 per round).
Not only that, but Hoge leads the entire PGA Tour in proximity this season, averaging 34’10." Hoge will have a huge advantage finding the tiny greens compared to the rest of the field this week if he keeps up his current form.
At 120-1, Hoge is a must-play.
Webb Simpson 200-1 (bet365)
Webb Simpson’s odds are astronomically high this weekend, and for good reason. He hasn’t been in contention once all year, but that does not mean he hasn’t been competitive. Simpson has made the cut in five of his six appearances this season but is just seeking his first top 10 of the season.
The good news for Simpson? He has an incredible history at the RBC Heritage.
Simpson won this event in 2020 after firing a 7-under 64 in the final round to hold off Abraham Ancer. It is rare to catch 200-1 odds on a winner of any PGA Tour event, but here we are.
He is not just a one-hit wonder at Harbour Town, though. Simpson genuinely loves it here and consistently performs at his best in this event. He has three top 10s and two top fives in his career at the RBC Heritage. Experience is valuable for a course that requires such precision and strategy as Harbour Town, and few golfers have more experience than Simpson with his win and 14 total starts here since 2009.
It makes sense that Simpson plays well here because he is an accurate driver of the ball and always puts himself in favorable positions to find greens in regulation. Simpson ranks in the top 60 in SG: Off the Tee (22), SG: Tee to Green (52) and SG: Around the Green (46).
With his balance in each of those key categories, he has a chance to rise up the leaderboard and surprise the masses this weekend.
