The PGA Tour visits Detroit, Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic as Rickie Fowler looks to defend his title after winning in a playoff over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa last year. Let's get into our 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic best bets.
Spencer Aguiar, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 156 golfers will clash this week at Detroit Golf Club, which is a 7,370-yard par-72 designed by Donald Ross in 1916.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic best bets and expert picks.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Best Bets, Expert Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Ryan Fox -115 Over Erik van Rooyen (bet365)
I didn't have a player with a DFS price of $7,000 or higher grade as a lower value in my model than Erik van Rooyen.
While his statistical profile does show some semblance of upside, I'm trying to find missed-cut equity for these matchups, which is something van Rooyen provides at a much higher rate than his counterparts.
My model graded the South African 119th in his career at Donald Ross courses, including back-to-back missed cuts at Detroit Golf Club in his only two attempts.
Perhaps his easy-scoring potential can carry him for a few days to greater heights than my model projects, but his lack of scoring ability from the critical par-4 ranges this week and low-end putting returns on comp courses make him one of my favorite targets to take on since the market is much higher on his chances than me this week.
I am happy to fade that profile for two (or four) days against one of my favorite leverage targets on the board in Ryan Fox.
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Matt Gannon: Alejandro Tosti Top 10 +800 (FanDuel)
Tosti’s lone top 10 this season came in Houston at Memorial Park Golf Course, which, like Detroit Golf Club, asks golfers similar questions in terms of being very long off the tee and finding a hot putter.
Memorial Park is surely a more difficult test, but these are the two aspects where Tosti can excel. He is one of the most aggressive drivers on Tour, even in places where you probably shouldn't be aggressive, like when he drove the green at the island-green par-4 13th hole at Valhalla during the PGA Championship.
Alejandro Tosti drives the green on the par-4 13th. 💥pic.twitter.com/UzowxwomPC
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) May 19, 2024
This is a golf course where that style of play will be rewarded, and his eyes will light up on every tee box.
Tony Sartori: Daniel Berger Top 10 +800 (FanDuel)
Will Daniel Berger ever return to the player he once was prior to injury? Maybe not, but the four-time PGA Tour winner is starting to trend in the right direction.
Berger just tied for 21st at the U.S Open, which was contested on another Donald Ross design against a significantly tougher field where he finished fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. He has now made the weekend in four of his past five tournaments, gaining strokes on the field in all four of those outings.
Furthermore, Berger has fared incredibly well on Ross designs as he has almost always succeeded at East Lake, which profiles more similarly to Detroit Golf Club than Pinehurst No. 2 does.
He has never finished lower than a tie for 15th in each of his past five appearances at East Lake, and given how much he has improved over the past two months, there are worse fliers to take this week than Berger to finish inside the top 10 at 8-1.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Min Woo Lee +1700
- Gannon: Min Woo Lee +1700
- Sartori: Maverick McNealy +3000
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Nicolai Højgaard +6000
- Gannon: Nicolai Højgaard +6000
- Sartori: Taylor Pendrith +3000
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Taylor Montgomery 140-1 (highly volatile)
- Gannon: Chris Gotterup 120-1
- Sartori: Daniel Berger 100-1
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Alex Noren +3200 / Erik van Rooyen +8000
- Sartori: Akshay Bhatia +2200
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Thorbjorn Olesen 110-1
- Gannon: Aaron Rai +3500
- Sartori: Aaron Rai +3500
Your Betting Strategy for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Aguiar: Donald Ross, who designed Detroit Golf Club in 1914, always has complicated runoff areas around the green to add to the difficulty, but this is a much more subdued version compared to most of those examples. The course features marginal undulation and several tiers to traverse, although the medium-sized green complexes are not quite the test players got a few weeks ago at Pinehurst No. 2.
Golfers have rendered nearly a 5% increase in dispersion of scoring with the flatstick to go along with an uptick in distance off the tee. Add that to an increased expectation from within 150 yards that generates just under a 10% increase in shots from that range over the past five years, and Detroit Golf Club demands a three-pronged nature of Distance + Short Iron Play + Corollary Putting Trends.
Gannon: This is one of a few weeks on the PGA Tour in which pure Driving Distance reigns supreme. Golfers will have a lot of fun off the tee this week because they can launch it with little regard for where it ends up. From the outside, it feels like an event that is based around bomb, gouge and roll a putt.
While that is not all false, every winner here has ranked among the top four in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green for that week. That shows that golfers cannot be completely careless with their golf game in Detroit and must have some class throughout the bag.
Distance is key, but in-form ball-striking is more important here than most pure birdie-fests.
Sartori: The North Course at Detroit Golf Club hosts once again this week, which it has done annually since 2019.
Detroit Golf Club is a par-72, 7,370-yard track designed by Donald Ross. It is a moderately sized course that is easy to score on, with the winning players typically relying on strong iron play to stick close approach shots for simple birdie opportunities.
Last season, five of the top-six finishers here ranked in the top 13 among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
