We head to Detroit for the sixth Rocket Mortgage Classic, which has produced an average winning score of 23-under par during the opening five tournaments.
The wide-open layout at Detroit Golf Club has yielded a bomb-and-gouge mindset since many of the blockages from trees or methodically placed bunkers can be taken out of play for those with extra length off the tee. This venue has four-inch rough throughout that is supposed to heighten the challenge, but it is hard to see it accomplish that goal since it really just adds to the distance narrative for those who can carry the ball farther with a driver.
Donald Ross designed the venue in 1914, and his signature complicated runoff areas around the green add to the difficulty, but this is a much more subdued version compared to most of his other courses. Detroit Golf Club features marginal undulation and several tiers to traverse, although the medium-sized green complexes are not quite the test that players experienced a few weeks ago at Pinehurst No. 2.
Golfers here have nearly a 5% increase in dispersion of scoring with the flat stick. This adds to the nature of why this has the propensity to become a Distance + Putting contest. However, don't discredit the increased approach proximity from within 150 yards. The field will get just under a 10% uptick in shots from that range, including a 17% mark overall from 0-100 yards. That total is as high as any course on the PGA Tour.
I hate calling this nothing more than a birdie-fest because that signifies a relatively weak tournament where you can't find a realistic edge because of the volatile nature of putting, but I would say it is a glorified version of that because distance and short-iron play will amplify upside totals at this very straightforward track.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Data-Driven Matchup Picks
I am going to take a different approach this week and talk about how I view matchups pre-event. Not all of these numbers are exactly where they were when I released the plays on Monday, but there is a specific blueprint to follow when trying to find opponents to fade for the week. Remember, missed-cut equity goes a long way when your numbers are much lower than the market's consensus.
Playing star-versus-star matchups solely because you like a golfer doesn't quite work in golf because of the sport's volatility. You always need to have a reason to fade an opponent above anything else. I'll discuss how I found those reasons to fade each golfer within specific matchups in Detroit below.
Carson Young -129 Over Ben Silverman
When I released this wager early on Monday morning, we ballooned this total way above its current mark of -129. The market has come back down substantially because of the push from DataGolf, which expressed that they thought Ben Silverman had value within their model.
However, the move has shrunk us back into a range of this being an option where my model had over a 3% long-term edge at its current going rate.
There is a chance that each golfer misses the cut because the profile for Carson Young isn't perfect, but Silverman ranked outside the top 130 golfers this week in my model when combing Distance, Short Iron Play and Putting and also failed to crack the top 100 for Easy Scoring Production, Donald Ross History, Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, Projected Scoring and Weighted Ball-Striking.
It is not often that we get the potential to attack a golfer outside my top 100 with another inside my top 50, which made this a value grab when the market opened these two at -120/+100.
Davis Thompson -115 Over Robert MacIntyre (FanDuel)
I recently added this wager before constructing the article, so the market has been slow to move toward this ticket.
This is an interesting spot because the overall and safety portions of my model didn't yield an advantage that would have rendered a 3% edge, but a lot of the information that I pulled on the back end of the equation shifted this into a territory where we had just enough value to punch the ticket.
My model generated a 40-spot difference in average grade between all seven categories I ran this week, with Thompson grading better in all seven metrics. Both of those returns are significant for me because they highlight where a golfer may be garnering too much respect in the market because of recent form or course history over his stylistic fit for the track.
Courses with a ton of rollover predictability would hold more credence for me, but the fact that MacIntyre has not only never played this venue but also is carrying a lot of his weight in my sheet for recent results caused a troubling return since the four top-16 results (including victory) can be equally eliminated by his additional four missed-cut performances over his past eight events.
If the books want to give him full credit for those high-end marks, I will take him on in more volatile matchup markets.
Nicolai Højgaard -110 Over Taylor Moore (ESPN BET)
I don't know why I felt so much trepidation about this play because this is technically the most significant edge my model has delivered all year. I decided to trust the data and ignore some of the market moves that showed Moore to be a lot better than my model would project, but I have remained cautious in this play for whatever reason.
I usually wouldn't care so much about those answers, but there are particular golfers for me weekly whom I know I will almost always be lower on than consensus in my model, such as Taylor Moore, Will Zalatoris, and Erik Van Rooyen.
Consequently, I typically want a more significant edge against these golfers in order to get to the window. The fact that Moore is showing sharp on the reverse of that answer this week did cause some concern because I am having difficulty finding what I am missing past his stellar course history.
Maybe part of my problem is stemming from Højgaard's boom-or-bust nature recently. Perhaps I am not taking into account Moore's back-to-back top-six finishes here. However, it should mean something that I wasn't able to shift this price after recommending the wager. It is not often that I have no impact on the market for a matchup, which means books respect Moore enough here to stand pat.
Ryan Fox -120 Over Erik van Rooyen
While I understand the statistical profile does show some semblance of upside if you are looking for a target who can climb the leaderboard, we are trying to find missed-cut equity for these matchups, which is something Erik van Rooyen delivers us at a much higher rate than his counterparts.
My model graded the South African 119th in his career at Donald Ross courses, including back-to-back missed cuts at Detroit Golf Club in his only two attempts.
Perhaps his easy-scoring potential can carry him for a few days to greater heights than my model projects, but his lack of scoring ability from the critical par-4 ranges this week and low-end putting returns on comp courses make him one of my favorite targets to take on since the market is much higher on his chances than me this week.
Recap
I usually don't find four matchup bets pre-event that generate at least a 3% edge because of how tight these markets have been recently. That clearly shows that I view things a lot differently than the books this week.
When I am this unique with my takes, there is a chance that the week has a chance to implode on itself, but I will always attack edges when I see them. It may not work every tournament, but the long-term answer has rendered over a 60% rate over my last 1200+ plays.
Living under the mindset that every week becomes a must-win will leave you with no bankroll quickly. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
For more of my thoughts on this week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, check out the Links + Locks Tournament Betting Preview podcast.
